Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 300808
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0308 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV / LARGE PART OF SRN AND
   W-CNTRL UT / EXTREME NWRN AZ / DEATH VALLEY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE ID
   SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AS A MID-UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
   ACROSS THE DESERT SW.  AN ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
   DRAPED W TO E ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN FROM A SURFACE LOW INVOF
   THE GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT.  S OF THE BOUNDARY VERY WARM TO HOT
   TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.  AS THE UPPER LOW GLANCES THE
   GREAT BASIN REGION...AN INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT
   WILL RESULT IN STRONG SWLY WINDS LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE
   CA DESERTS.  VERY WARM TO VERY HOT/DRY CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN
   FORECAST FOR SRN CA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NV / LARGE PART OF SRN AND
   W-CNTRL UT / EXTREME NWRN AZ / DEATH VALLEY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / WARM-VERY HOT TEMPS / LOW RH /
   RECEPTIVE FUELS
   
   STRONG SWLY SUSTAINED WINDS /20-30 MPH/ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AS
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...MIXING WILL PROMOTE GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH
   ACROSS THE REGION.  CONTINUED WARM TO VERY HOT TEMPS RANGING FROM
   THE 80S TO APPROACHING 110 ACROSS THE AREA WILL AUGMENT RH INTO
   FALLING WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SWRN AND CNTRL AREAS TO
   NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS ERN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
   ONE CHANGE TENDENCY NOTED IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A LARGER
   AREA AFFECTED BY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND
   MAGNITUDES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  WITH THAT SAID...THE HIGHEST
   CONFIDENCE IN STRONGEST WINDS/LOW RH APPEARS TO BE IN A ZONE FROM
   NEAR DEATH VALLEY/NRN MOHAVE DESERT NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL
   AND SWRN UT.  HERE...CONSISTENCY IN ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA AND 00Z/30
   DETERMINISTIC DATA SHOW THE STRONGEST H85-H7 SWLY FLOW /25-35 KTS/
   AMIDST HOT TO VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.  HAVE EXPANDED THE
   CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NV TO ACCOUNT FOR AN INCREASE
   IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WLY WINDS CONCURRENT WITH LOW RH /10-15
   PERCENT/.
   
   ...PARTS OF SRN CA...
   VERY HOT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
   SRN CA WITH 90S AND TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS COMMON CONCURRENT WITH LOW TO
   VERY LOW RH /5-10 PERCENT/.  THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL
   PROMOTE AMPLE MIXING AND ENHANCED SWLY GUSTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR IN
   TERRAIN FAVORED LOCALES.  HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD TEMPERED GUSTS
   /10-20 MPH/ WILL BE THE RULE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND GENERALLY
   WEAK SUSTAINED WINDS WILL ACT TO MITIGATE AN OTHERWISE GREATER
   THREAT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/30/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 300955
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0455 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN-CNTRL UT / FAR W-CNTRL CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER ID AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND
   MOVE EWD INTO NRN WY BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
   BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED W-E ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN. 
   MODERATELY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER CNTRL
   AND SRN UT EXTENDING EWD INTO WRN CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   DISTURBANCE TO THE N.  FURTHER W...A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   MOVE FROM THE NRN CA COAST TO SRN ORE ON THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF AN
   ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN-CNTRL UT / FAR W-CNTRL CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATELY STRONG WINDS / RECEPTIVE
   FUELS
   
   AN ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PROMOTE VERY
   WARM TEMPS AGAIN WITHIN A LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW REGIME S OF A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED OVER NRN UT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   DEPICT RH FALLING IN THE 7-15 PERCENT RANGE DUE IN PART TO STRONG
   SURFACE HEATING.  CONSENSUS AMONGST SREF ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
   MODEL DATA SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF MODERATELY STRONG WINDS /NEAR 20
   MPH SUSTAINED/ WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH MAY DEVELOP FROM SWRN
   UT ENEWD INTO W-CNTRL CO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN JUXTAPOSITION
   WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH.
   
   ...WRN NV...
   SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT EARLY AS THE
   NRN ROCKIES DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE AREA BUT A NRN CA MID-LEVEL
   IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE W.  INTENSIFYING LOW-MID
   LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS TOWARDS AND AFTER 00Z/01 WILL PROBABLY RESULT
   IN SUSTAINED WINDS NEARING 20 MPH TOWARDS EARLY EVENING.  COOLER MAX
   TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR TO A
   MORE ROBUST FIRE WEATHER SETUP WITH RH/S EXPECTED TO GENERALLY HOLD
   IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE.  
   
   ...PARTS OF SRN CA...
   HOT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
   SRN CA WITH 90S AND TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS AGAIN EXPECTED WITH LOW RH. 
   ALTHOUGH MIXING AND TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS MAY PROMOTE HIGHER
   LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS...MORE RELAXED SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS WILL
   LIKELY BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/30/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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