Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 300808
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV / LARGE PART OF SRN AND
W-CNTRL UT / EXTREME NWRN AZ / DEATH VALLEY...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE ID
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY AS A MID-UPPER ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE DESERT SW. AN ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED W TO E ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN FROM A SURFACE LOW INVOF
THE GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT. S OF THE BOUNDARY VERY WARM TO HOT
TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. AS THE UPPER LOW GLANCES THE
GREAT BASIN REGION...AN INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN STRONG SWLY WINDS LEADING TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CA DESERTS. VERY WARM TO VERY HOT/DRY CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN
FORECAST FOR SRN CA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - MUCH OF NV / LARGE PART OF SRN AND
W-CNTRL UT / EXTREME NWRN AZ / DEATH VALLEY...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / WARM-VERY HOT TEMPS / LOW RH /
RECEPTIVE FUELS
STRONG SWLY SUSTAINED WINDS /20-30 MPH/ WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...MIXING WILL PROMOTE GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH
ACROSS THE REGION. CONTINUED WARM TO VERY HOT TEMPS RANGING FROM
THE 80S TO APPROACHING 110 ACROSS THE AREA WILL AUGMENT RH INTO
FALLING WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS SWRN AND CNTRL AREAS TO
NEAR 15 PERCENT ACROSS ERN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
ONE CHANGE TENDENCY NOTED IN THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A LARGER
AREA AFFECTED BY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND
MAGNITUDES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. WITH THAT SAID...THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN STRONGEST WINDS/LOW RH APPEARS TO BE IN A ZONE FROM
NEAR DEATH VALLEY/NRN MOHAVE DESERT NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL
AND SWRN UT. HERE...CONSISTENCY IN ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA AND 00Z/30
DETERMINISTIC DATA SHOW THE STRONGEST H85-H7 SWLY FLOW /25-35 KTS/
AMIDST HOT TO VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE EXPANDED THE
CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NV TO ACCOUNT FOR AN INCREASE
IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WLY WINDS CONCURRENT WITH LOW RH /10-15
PERCENT/.
...PARTS OF SRN CA...
VERY HOT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SRN CA WITH 90S AND TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS COMMON CONCURRENT WITH LOW TO
VERY LOW RH /5-10 PERCENT/. THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROMOTE AMPLE MIXING AND ENHANCED SWLY GUSTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR IN
TERRAIN FAVORED LOCALES. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD TEMPERED GUSTS
/10-20 MPH/ WILL BE THE RULE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND GENERALLY
WEAK SUSTAINED WINDS WILL ACT TO MITIGATE AN OTHERWISE GREATER
THREAT.
..SMITH.. 08/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 300955
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN-CNTRL UT / FAR W-CNTRL CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER ID AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE EWD INTO NRN WY BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED W-E ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN.
MODERATELY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER CNTRL
AND SRN UT EXTENDING EWD INTO WRN CO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DISTURBANCE TO THE N. FURTHER W...A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM THE NRN CA COAST TO SRN ORE ON THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN-CNTRL UT / FAR W-CNTRL CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATELY STRONG WINDS / RECEPTIVE
FUELS
AN ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PROMOTE VERY
WARM TEMPS AGAIN WITHIN A LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW REGIME S OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED OVER NRN UT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT RH FALLING IN THE 7-15 PERCENT RANGE DUE IN PART TO STRONG
SURFACE HEATING. CONSENSUS AMONGST SREF ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
MODEL DATA SUGGEST A CORRIDOR OF MODERATELY STRONG WINDS /NEAR 20
MPH SUSTAINED/ WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 MPH MAY DEVELOP FROM SWRN
UT ENEWD INTO W-CNTRL CO MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN JUXTAPOSITION
WITH CRITICALLY LOW RH.
...WRN NV...
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT EARLY AS THE
NRN ROCKIES DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE AREA BUT A NRN CA MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE W. INTENSIFYING LOW-MID
LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS TOWARDS AND AFTER 00Z/01 WILL PROBABLY RESULT
IN SUSTAINED WINDS NEARING 20 MPH TOWARDS EARLY EVENING. COOLER MAX
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AND WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR TO A
MORE ROBUST FIRE WEATHER SETUP WITH RH/S EXPECTED TO GENERALLY HOLD
IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE.
...PARTS OF SRN CA...
HOT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SRN CA WITH 90S AND TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS AGAIN EXPECTED WITH LOW RH.
ALTHOUGH MIXING AND TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS MAY PROMOTE HIGHER
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS...MORE RELAXED SUSTAINED WINDS/GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE THE RULE ACROSS THE AREA.
..SMITH.. 08/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...