Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 310809
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN-ERN UT / WRN CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE
   ID SNAKE RIVER VALLEY.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
   MOVE ENEWD INTO S-CNTRL MT BY TUESDAY MORNING.  FURTHER W...A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OFF THE NRN CA COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
   NEWD INTO ORE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AN ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN
   ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SW.  AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   WILL BE IN A GENERAL W-E ORIENTATION ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND
   EXTEND NEWD INTO CNTRL WY TOWARDS A SURFACE LOW IN THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS.  MODERATELY STRONG SWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A LOW
   LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE S AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER PORTIONS OF UT AND
   CO.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN-ERN UT / WRN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATELY STRONG WINDS / RECEPTIVE
   FUELS
   
   AN ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PROMOTE VERY
   WARM TEMPS AGAIN WITHIN A LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW REGIME S OF A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED OVER NRN UT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   DEPICT RH FALLING IN THE 7-15 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST VALUES
   OVER ERN/SERN UT.  HAVE EXTENDED THE CRITICAL AREA E AND NEWD OVER
   CO TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP WITHIN PREVIOUSLY
   DESCRIBED LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE.  MODERATELY STRONG SUSTAINED
   WINDS /20-25 MPH/ WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH IN SOME LOCALES
   WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AROUND PEAK HEATING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
   HOURS.
   
   ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY/WRN SLOPES OF NRN SIERRAS...
   BELT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID-LEVEL SSELY-SSWLY FLOW /30-35 KTS AT
   H7/ ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
   OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO RECENT
   DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS.  MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT ONLY
   MODESTLY LOW RH /MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S/ BUT SEEMINGLY LONG DURATION
   OF MODESTLY SUPPORTIVE LOW RH/WINDS SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
   GROWTH/SPREAD ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 00Z/01 WHEN RH MAY BE LOWEST.  
   
   ...WRN NV...
   SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT EARLY AS THE
   NRN ROCKIES DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE AREA BUT A NRN CA MID-LEVEL
   IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE W.  INTENSIFYING LOW-MID
   LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS TOWARDS EVENING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
   SUSTAINED WINDS NEARING 20 MPH TOWARDS EARLY EVENING LEADING TO
   SHORT DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER...THE CA/ORE SYSTEM/S
   LATE INFLUENCE ALONG WITH COOLER MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY ACT TO
   TEMPER ROBUST FIRE WEATHER SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS.  RH/S ARE EXPECTED
   TO GENERALLY HOLD IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE.  
     
   ...PARTS OF SRN CA...
   HOT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
   SRN CA WITH LOW TO VERY LOW RH.  LATEST MODEL DATA EXHIBITED A
   SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
   DAYS...ALTHOUGH MIXING AND TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS WILL STILL SUPPORT
   HIGHER LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/31/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 310905
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0405 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO ONLY SLIGHT CHANGE FROM D1 TO D2 AS
   ANTICYCLONE PERSISTS OVER THE DESERT SW WITH WEAK BROAD TROUGHING
   OVER THE ERN CONUS.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER ORE WILL MOVE
   NEWD ON THE PERIPHERY OF EXPANSIVE NERN PACIFIC CYCLONE.  IN ITS
   WAKE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN LEADING
   TO WARMER TEMPS AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT
   FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW BY WED MORNING.  ANTICYCLONE
   OVER THE DESERT SW WILL AGAIN EXERT INFLUENCE OVER PARTS OF SRN CA
   LEADING TO VERY WARM TEMPS AND LOWER RH WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER WIND
   GUSTS.  FURTHER E...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY.
   
   ...NWRN GREAT BASIN...
   WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW/RISING HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR AS UPPER
   IMPULSE TO THE NW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.  TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
   BE WARMER WITH RH AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING PEAK HEATING.  THERE IS
   SOME VARIABILITY IN MODEL DATA ON THE STRENGTH OF SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS.  NONETHELESS...WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS RESULTING IN DEEPER MIXING.
   
   ...SRN WY...
   DESERT SW ANTICYCLONE WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WHILE THE NRN
   HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM WEAKENS...EFFECTIVELY OFFSETTING WEAKENING IN THE
   LOW-MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT.  AS SUCH...MODESTLY STRONG WLY FLOW
   WITHIN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME W OF MOISTURE AXIS OVER SERN WY
   MAY SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF SRN WY AND
   PERHAPS NRN CO.  IF CONFIDENCE IS MAINTAINED REGARDING THE STRENGTH
   OF 0-1 KM AGL FLOW...THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN THE NEXT
   OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/31/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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