Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 310809
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN-ERN UT / WRN CO...
...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE
ID SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE ENEWD INTO S-CNTRL MT BY TUESDAY MORNING. FURTHER W...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OFF THE NRN CA COAST AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEWD INTO ORE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SW. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BE IN A GENERAL W-E ORIENTATION ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND
EXTEND NEWD INTO CNTRL WY TOWARDS A SURFACE LOW IN THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS. MODERATELY STRONG SWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE S AND E OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER PORTIONS OF UT AND
CO.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN-ERN UT / WRN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LOW RH / MODERATELY STRONG WINDS / RECEPTIVE
FUELS
AN ANTECEDENTLY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PROMOTE VERY
WARM TEMPS AGAIN WITHIN A LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW REGIME S OF A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED OVER NRN UT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT RH FALLING IN THE 7-15 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST VALUES
OVER ERN/SERN UT. HAVE EXTENDED THE CRITICAL AREA E AND NEWD OVER
CO TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONGER WINDS TO DEVELOP WITHIN PREVIOUSLY
DESCRIBED LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. MODERATELY STRONG SUSTAINED
WINDS /20-25 MPH/ WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH IN SOME LOCALES
WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP AROUND PEAK HEATING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
...SACRAMENTO VALLEY/WRN SLOPES OF NRN SIERRAS...
BELT OF INCREASING LOW TO MID-LEVEL SSELY-SSWLY FLOW /30-35 KTS AT
H7/ ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO RECENT
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT ONLY
MODESTLY LOW RH /MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S/ BUT SEEMINGLY LONG DURATION
OF MODESTLY SUPPORTIVE LOW RH/WINDS SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
GROWTH/SPREAD ESPECIALLY TOWARDS 00Z/01 WHEN RH MAY BE LOWEST.
...WRN NV...
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT EARLY AS THE
NRN ROCKIES DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE AREA BUT A NRN CA MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE W. INTENSIFYING LOW-MID
LEVEL KINEMATIC FIELDS TOWARDS EVENING WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN
SUSTAINED WINDS NEARING 20 MPH TOWARDS EARLY EVENING LEADING TO
SHORT DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE CA/ORE SYSTEM/S
LATE INFLUENCE ALONG WITH COOLER MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY ACT TO
TEMPER ROBUST FIRE WEATHER SUPPORTIVE CONDITIONS. RH/S ARE EXPECTED
TO GENERALLY HOLD IN THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE.
...PARTS OF SRN CA...
HOT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF INLAND
SRN CA WITH LOW TO VERY LOW RH. LATEST MODEL DATA EXHIBITED A
SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS...ALTHOUGH MIXING AND TERRAIN FAVORED AREAS WILL STILL SUPPORT
HIGHER LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS.
..SMITH.. 08/31/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 310905
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0405 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN WILL UNDERGO ONLY SLIGHT CHANGE FROM D1 TO D2 AS
ANTICYCLONE PERSISTS OVER THE DESERT SW WITH WEAK BROAD TROUGHING
OVER THE ERN CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER ORE WILL MOVE
NEWD ON THE PERIPHERY OF EXPANSIVE NERN PACIFIC CYCLONE. IN ITS
WAKE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN GREAT BASIN LEADING
TO WARMER TEMPS AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH/COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW BY WED MORNING. ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE DESERT SW WILL AGAIN EXERT INFLUENCE OVER PARTS OF SRN CA
LEADING TO VERY WARM TEMPS AND LOWER RH WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER WIND
GUSTS. FURTHER E...A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE MID-MO RIVER VALLEY.
...NWRN GREAT BASIN...
WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW/RISING HEIGHTS WILL OCCUR AS UPPER
IMPULSE TO THE NW MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WARMER WITH RH AROUND 15 PERCENT DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE IS
SOME VARIABILITY IN MODEL DATA ON THE STRENGTH OF SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS. NONETHELESS...WINDS MAY APPROACH 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS RESULTING IN DEEPER MIXING.
...SRN WY...
DESERT SW ANTICYCLONE WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TUESDAY WHILE THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM WEAKENS...EFFECTIVELY OFFSETTING WEAKENING IN THE
LOW-MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT. AS SUCH...MODESTLY STRONG WLY FLOW
WITHIN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME W OF MOISTURE AXIS OVER SERN WY
MAY SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF SRN WY AND
PERHAPS NRN CO. IF CONFIDENCE IS MAINTAINED REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF 0-1 KM AGL FLOW...THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IN THE NEXT
OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.
..SMITH.. 08/31/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...