Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050804
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0304 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2009
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN CA...NWRN NV...SERN ORE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD INTO
   THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
   FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
   MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND DESERT SW...WHILE CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH
   AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NERN CA/NWRN NV/SERN ORE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN CA...NWRN NV...SERN ORE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...WARM
   TEMPERATURES...SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PAC NW...WLY MID LEVEL
   FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...DAYTIME
   HEATING WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GENERALLY POOR
   OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY...ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING...IS EXPECTED TO
   YIELD RH VALUES APPROACHING 10 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
   ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW COMBINED WITH THE WELL MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS AOA 30 MPH WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH. THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
   RH VALUES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CENTRAL/SRN MT INTO NRN WY...
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL/SRN MT INTO NRN WY ON
   SATURDAY...WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK POTENTIAL
   INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY DRY
   WITH RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT...AND DEEP MIXING IS LIKELY LEADING TO
   INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. INCREASING ASCENT OCCURRING AHEAD
   OF AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE PAC NW MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
   HIGH STORM BASES...DRY LIGHTNING MAY BE POSSIBLE RESULTING IN AN
   ELEVATED THREAT OF FIRE STARTS. THIS HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
   MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG/GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE
   FIRE CONTROL EFFORTS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 09/05/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 050806
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0306 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2009
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
   OVER THE PAC NW. MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD
   EWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. LOW
   LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE IN STRENGTH WHILE DAYTIME HEATING
   AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
   AFTERNOON RH VALUES. AS A RESULT...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SRN MT/NRN WY AS WELL AS ERN NV/WRN
   UT.
   
   ...SRN MT/NRN WY...
   STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
   AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE RH
   VALUES APPROACH 20 PERCENT. WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MT AND NRN
   WY. BY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
   WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN SHIFTING WINDS AND
   POSSIBLE ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR...THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
   THAT RH VALUES WILL RAPIDLY RECOVER.
   
   ...ERN NV/WRN UT...
   DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE LOW RH VALUES /NEAR 10 PERCENT/ AS WELL
   AS A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS THE
   UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PAC NW...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
   ACROSS THE REGION...FAVORING WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS MAY RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GARNER.. 09/05/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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