Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 050804
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0304 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2009
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN CA...NWRN NV...SERN ORE...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD INTO
THE PAC NW ON SATURDAY...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE COLD
FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND DESERT SW...WHILE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NERN CA/NWRN NV/SERN ORE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NERN CA...NWRN NV...SERN ORE...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...WARM
TEMPERATURES...SEVERE DROUGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE PAC NW...WLY MID LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE...DAYTIME
HEATING WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. GENERALLY POOR
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY...ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING...IS EXPECTED TO
YIELD RH VALUES APPROACHING 10 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE STRENGTHENING UPPER FLOW COMBINED WITH THE WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS WIND GUSTS AOA 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH. THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RH VALUES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
...CENTRAL/SRN MT INTO NRN WY...
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL/SRN MT INTO NRN WY ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY DRY
WITH RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT...AND DEEP MIXING IS LIKELY LEADING TO
INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. INCREASING ASCENT OCCURRING AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE PAC NW MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH STORM BASES...DRY LIGHTNING MAY BE POSSIBLE RESULTING IN AN
ELEVATED THREAT OF FIRE STARTS. THIS HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG/GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS...WHICH COULD AGGRAVATE
FIRE CONTROL EFFORTS.
..GARNER.. 09/05/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 050806
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 AM CDT SAT SEP 05 2009
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE PAC NW. MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD
EWD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE IN STRENGTH WHILE DAYTIME HEATING
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES. AS A RESULT...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SRN MT/NRN WY AS WELL AS ERN NV/WRN
UT.
...SRN MT/NRN WY...
STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE RH
VALUES APPROACH 20 PERCENT. WITH INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING...WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN MT AND NRN
WY. BY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN SHIFTING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR...THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT RH VALUES WILL RAPIDLY RECOVER.
...ERN NV/WRN UT...
DAYTIME HEATING WILL PROMOTE LOW RH VALUES /NEAR 10 PERCENT/ AS WELL
AS A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE PAC NW...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION...FAVORING WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THESE FACTORS MAY RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
..GARNER.. 09/05/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...