Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 120729
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN CA/SRN OR...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT INTO CNTRL/NRN CA...WHILE A
   STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
   WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SUPPORTING
   THUNDERSTORMS IN MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN CA AND SRN OR...ESPECIALLY DURING
   THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   MEANWHILE FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW IN THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE
   TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WWD THEN NWWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS LOW
   PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
   OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL AND RELATIVE
   HUMIDIFIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DESPITE STRONGER
   ELY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE NRN ROCKIES...IT APPEARS THAT
   MOISTURE/LOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT THESE WINDS FROM REACHING
   THE SURFACE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN CA/SRN OR...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LIGHTNING/EXTREMELY DRY FUELS/MODERATE TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT
   
   A COMPLEX SCENARIO FOR LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IS FORECAST FOR
   TODAY...AND WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED BY FIRE OFFICIALS.
   ALTHOUGH 00Z SOUNDINGS REFLECTED INADEQUATE MOISTURE...SATELLITE
   PWAT/WV IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF RICHER MOISTURE APPROACHING THE
   NORTHWESTERN COAST...WHILE MOISTURE FROM DECAYED T.S. LINDA
   CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD INTO CA. PWAT IMAGERY INDICATES NEAR 1 INCH
   VALUES NOW INTO CNTRL CA...WITH A SEPARATE AREA OF 0.75 INCH PWAT
   ALONG THE OREGON COAST. 00Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW STEEP LAPSE
   RATES...WHICH GIVEN THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEMS/HEIGHT FALLS AND
   SOME COOLING ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE...CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL GRADUALLY
   IMPROVE WITH TIME. IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN IN
   A NOTABLE UPPER DISTURBANCE JUST OFFSHORE OF SAN FRANCISCO AS OF
   07Z. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THIS UPPER
   DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SLOW IN SPEED AND TAKE ON A MORE NNEWD
   TURN...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   DESPITE LITTLE OBSERVED LIGHTNING DATA AT THE MOMENT...THE SAN
   FRANCISCO WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS RELAYED THAT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
   REPORTED BY LOCAL WEATHER SPOTTERS. THIS WOULD LEND CONFIDENCE TO
   LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS INSTABILITY
   CONTINUES TO INCREASE. STORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN...MOVING NWD/NNEWD WITH TIME...POSSIBLY CONTINUING
   OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN
   ANTECEDENT HOT/DRY CONDITIONS...AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT EXISTS WITH
   ANY LIGHTNING.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 09/12/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 120836
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
   PROGRESS SEWD...SHIFTING ONSHORE OF NRN CA/SRN ORE BY THE LATE
   EVENING. GUSTY WINDS MAY ALIGN WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AHEAD OF
   THIS IN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE MAY
   SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NRN CA/NWRN NV/MUCH OF ORE AND ID.
   
   
   MEANWHILE...THE LINGERING UPPER LOW IN THE NRN ROCKIES WILL FINALLY
   BEGIN TO PUSH NEWD INTO THE CNTRL CANADIAN PROVINCES. GUSTY WINDS
   MAY ALIGN WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN PORTIONS OF WRN WY AS THIS
   OCCURS.
   
   ...NRN CA/MUCH OF ORE AND ID/NWRN NV...
   AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE NRN CA/SRN ORE WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
   UPPER SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS ADEQUATE MOISTURE
   LINGERS. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...LIKELY MORE
   CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STRIKES AT BEST. HOWEVER...THE ORIENTATION OF
   THE UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR
   NRN CA AND CNTRL ORE. THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE DRY THUNDER AREA IN TOMORROW/S FORECAST. RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES WILL BE MARGINAL...THOUGH GIVEN ANTECEDENT
   DRYNESS...FUELS WILL LIKELY BE RECEPTIVE TO LIGHTNING STARTS.
   
   ...SRN NV...
   HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES
   IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS.
   THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DESERTS
   OF CA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE E WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUSTAINED
   SLY/SWLY WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND
   MIXING HEIGHTS DEEPEN...HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL MIX TO THE
   SURFACE. GIVEN MARGINAL SUSTAINED WINDS...A CRITICAL WILL NOT BE
   OUTLINED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...WRN WY...
   AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH NEWD INTO THE CNTRL CANADIAN
   PROVINCES. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
   MARGINAL...STRONGER WLY WINDS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
   LOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
   GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND MARGINAL RHS
   MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 09/12/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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