Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 120729
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN CA/SRN OR...
...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL DRIFT INTO CNTRL/NRN CA...WHILE A
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHWEST. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...SUPPORTING
THUNDERSTORMS IN MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN CA AND SRN OR...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MEANWHILE FARTHER E...AN UPPER LOW IN THE NRN ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE WWD THEN NWWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS...WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL AND RELATIVE
HUMIDIFIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DESPITE STRONGER
ELY WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE NRN ROCKIES...IT APPEARS THAT
MOISTURE/LOW MIXING HEIGHTS WILL PREVENT THESE WINDS FROM REACHING
THE SURFACE.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN CA/SRN OR...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: LIGHTNING/EXTREMELY DRY FUELS/MODERATE TO SEVERE
DROUGHT
A COMPLEX SCENARIO FOR LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY...AND WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED BY FIRE OFFICIALS.
ALTHOUGH 00Z SOUNDINGS REFLECTED INADEQUATE MOISTURE...SATELLITE
PWAT/WV IMAGERY SHOW AN AREA OF RICHER MOISTURE APPROACHING THE
NORTHWESTERN COAST...WHILE MOISTURE FROM DECAYED T.S. LINDA
CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD INTO CA. PWAT IMAGERY INDICATES NEAR 1 INCH
VALUES NOW INTO CNTRL CA...WITH A SEPARATE AREA OF 0.75 INCH PWAT
ALONG THE OREGON COAST. 00Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW STEEP LAPSE
RATES...WHICH GIVEN THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEMS/HEIGHT FALLS AND
SOME COOLING ALOFT IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...CONDITIONS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE WITH TIME. IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN IN
A NOTABLE UPPER DISTURBANCE JUST OFFSHORE OF SAN FRANCISCO AS OF
07Z. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THIS UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SLOW IN SPEED AND TAKE ON A MORE NNEWD
TURN...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DESPITE LITTLE OBSERVED LIGHTNING DATA AT THE MOMENT...THE SAN
FRANCISCO WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE HAS RELAYED THAT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
REPORTED BY LOCAL WEATHER SPOTTERS. THIS WOULD LEND CONFIDENCE TO
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE. STORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...MOVING NWD/NNEWD WITH TIME...POSSIBLY CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN
ANTECEDENT HOT/DRY CONDITIONS...AN ENHANCED FIRE THREAT EXISTS WITH
ANY LIGHTNING.
..HURLBUT.. 09/12/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 120836
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2009
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS SEWD...SHIFTING ONSHORE OF NRN CA/SRN ORE BY THE LATE
EVENING. GUSTY WINDS MAY ALIGN WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AHEAD OF
THIS IN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE INSTABILITY/MOISTURE MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NRN CA/NWRN NV/MUCH OF ORE AND ID.
MEANWHILE...THE LINGERING UPPER LOW IN THE NRN ROCKIES WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO PUSH NEWD INTO THE CNTRL CANADIAN PROVINCES. GUSTY WINDS
MAY ALIGN WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN PORTIONS OF WRN WY AS THIS
OCCURS.
...NRN CA/MUCH OF ORE AND ID/NWRN NV...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE NRN CA/SRN ORE WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
UPPER SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS ADEQUATE MOISTURE
LINGERS. CURRENT FORECASTS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY...LIKELY MORE
CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED STRIKES AT BEST. HOWEVER...THE ORIENTATION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH MAY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR
NRN CA AND CNTRL ORE. THESE AREAS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE DRY THUNDER AREA IN TOMORROW/S FORECAST. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE MARGINAL...THOUGH GIVEN ANTECEDENT
DRYNESS...FUELS WILL LIKELY BE RECEPTIVE TO LIGHTNING STARTS.
...SRN NV...
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS.
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DESERTS
OF CA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE E WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SUSTAINED
SLY/SWLY WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND
MIXING HEIGHTS DEEPEN...HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE. GIVEN MARGINAL SUSTAINED WINDS...A CRITICAL WILL NOT BE
OUTLINED AT THIS TIME.
...WRN WY...
AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO PUSH NEWD INTO THE CNTRL CANADIAN
PROVINCES. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
MARGINAL...STRONGER WLY WINDS ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER
LOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND MARGINAL RHS
MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT.
..HURLBUT.. 09/12/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...