Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 180812
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2009
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS TODAY...THE
   EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE NERN STATES WHERE A VERY STRONG UPPER
   TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA. SHALLOW CONVECTION AND RAIN SHOWERS
   WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NY INTO NEW
   ENGLAND...WITH STRONG WINDS AS WELL.  TO THE W...WARM AND DRY
   WEATHER WILL REMAIN FROM CA INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN...WITH WARM AIR
   RETURNING NWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW WITH A WEAK SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
   OVER ERN ORE AND WA. SCATTERED STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN EXIST OVER THE
   FOUR CORNERS STATES WITH A FEW DRY STORMS OVER WRN WY.
   
   STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE PACIFIC NW
   LATE AS AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.
   HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL NOT MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTY WLY WINDS
   WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT THOUGH...BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WITH
   TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 50S F AND GOOD RH RECOVERY.
   
   OVER CNTRL AND SRN CA...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INLAND
   WITH ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS SUCH...THE DRIER
   AIR WITH MIN RH IN THE TEENS WILL BE WELL INLAND AND AWAY FROM THE
   COAST.
   
   ELSEWHERE...MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MID TO UPPER
   MS VALLEY AND INTO THE MIDWEST WITH A SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE. GUSTY
   SELY WINDS AND LOW RH WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A
   MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE DUE TO THE HIGH TO THE E AND
   WEAK LEE TROUGHING.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 09/18/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 180951
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2009
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN ND...NWRN SD...FAR ERN MT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
   PACIFIC NW AND ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES LATE ON SATURDAY. A WARM AND
   DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ERUPTING FROM UT INTO WRN MT AND ERN ID. THE COLD
   FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WRN MT INTO NWRN NV AND NRN CA BY SAT
   AFTERNOON. A WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO RESIDE OVER THE WRN
   GREAT BASIN...WITH GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. TO
   THE E...A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
   GREAT LAKES AND A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER CNTRL MT WILL COMBINE TO
   PRODUCE GUSTY SLY WINDS OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS AND INTO ERN MT. THESE
   WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW RH TO CREATE PERIODS OF CRITICAL
   FIRE CONDTIONS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - WRN ND...NWRN SD...FAR ERN MT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: GUSTY SLY WINDS AND LOW RH
   
   A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN DURING THE DAYTIME OVER
   CNTRL MT...ENHANCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO
   THE E. SUSTAINED SLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER ERN
   MT...WITH SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH OVER THE CNTRL AND WRN DAKOTAS. RH
   WILL BE LOWEST OVER MT...WITH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. GUSTY
   WINDS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
   BEHIND THIS FRONT...AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NWLY AT 15-20 MPH IS
   LIKELY...JUST CROSSING INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 12Z ON SUNDAY.
   
   ...MUCH OF CNTRL MT...
   IT WILL BE WARM AND DRY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SWLY
   WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY WITH RH INTO
   THE MID TEENS. THE MARGINAL SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD TEMPER THE FIRE
   THREAT OVERALL. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
   MAINLY DURING THE EVENING...AND WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO WLY
   AT OVER 20 MPH. THUS...DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH THE FRONT
   AND RISING RH LEVELS...THE WIND SHIFT COULD RESULT IN ERRATIC
   BEHAVIOR WITH ANY ONGOING FIRES.
   
   ...SERN ID INTO SWRN MT...
   COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM UT NWD INTO SWRN MT. THE
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS
   ALONG IT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW
   PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.65 TO 0.75 IN...WHICH WHEN COMBINED
   WITH A RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS...WOULD
   LIKELY RESULT IN A MIXTURE OF DRY AND WET STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY
   SCENARIO WILL BE FOR A N-S ORIENTED ZONE OF STROMS...FROM CNTRL UT
   INTO SERN ID AND WRN WY...MERGING WITH ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS OVER
   CNTRL ID THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO SWRN MT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE
   STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD LARGELY BE WET GIVEN THE VERY
   STRONG FORCING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES. 
   
   ...WRN AND NRN NV...
   A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SAT AFTERNOON
   WITH INCREASING WLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE
   LIKELY AREA-WIDE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH IN A SMALL AREA
   ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT. MIN RH SHOULD RANGE FROM 10-15 PERCENT OVER
   MUCH OF NV. THE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS AND LOW RH MAY RESULT IN
   LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ALONG THE CA/NV BORDER FOR A FEW
   HOURS...BEFORE RH BEGINS RISING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 09/18/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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