Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 270754
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN MT...NERN WY...WRN/SRN
   SD...NRN NEB...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER SRN
   SASKATCHEWAN/ WILL UNDERGO SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS
   ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY MON. AN
   INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET /AROUND 100 MPH AT 500 MB/ ON THE SWRN
   PERIPHERY OF THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CENTERED FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO
   THE MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
   DEEPEN ACROSS WRN/CNTRL ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WITH AN
   ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE OH RIVER
   VALLEY/SRN PLAINS BY 12Z MON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - ERN MT...NERN WY...WRN/SRN SD...NRN
   NEB...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   TROPOSPHERIC KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL BE QUITE INTENSE ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS INTO NEB TODAY...WITH AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS AOA 20 MPH. HOWEVER...LOW RH /FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT/ WILL BE
   CONFINED TO A MORE NARROW AXIS ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGEST
   FLOW...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. MODEL
   FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER WEST WITH THE PLACEMENT OF LOW
   RH...AND LATEST CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THIS CORRIDOR WILL RUN FROM ERN
   MT INTO NRN NEB DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS SHOULD REACH 25 TO 35 MPH AND RESULT IN A HIGH-END TO
   LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/27/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 270927
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0427 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2009
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN ORE...FAR NERN CA/NWRN NV...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST
   THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM
   THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. UPSTREAM...A RIDGE AXIS WILL TRACK
   FROM THE ROCKIES ONTO THE GREAT PLAINS...WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   DIGS ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
   WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH EARLY TUE.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN ORE...FAR NERN CA/NWRN NV...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / ABNORMAL DRYNESS TO
   MODERATE DROUGHT
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW. A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL AID IN WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
   DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON ON MON. TEMPERATURES WARMING PRIMARILY
   INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
   IN RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...N-CNTRL MT...
   LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING MON
   AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A STEEP LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH
   OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AID
   IN SUSTAINED SELY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 MPH. THIS WILL ENHANCE
   DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHOULD LEAD TO RH VALUES
   FALLING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT. 
   
   ...E-CNTRL/S-CNTRL NV...
   ALTHOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL NOT INCREASE TO THE DEGREE OF
   THE CRITICAL AREA TO THE NW...A SHORT-DURATION OF MODERATE SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS /FROM 15 TO 20 MPH/ SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE
   AFTERNOON GIVEN VERY DEEPLY MIXED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. THIS WILL
   BE JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT AND RESULT IN AN
   ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/27/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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