Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 290817
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0317 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2009
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/SRN NV...UT...NWRN
   AZ/CO...CNTRL/SRN WY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH A RIDGE
   OVER THE CNTRL CONUS FLANKED BY TROUGHS IN THE WEST AND EAST. THE
   TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA COAST WILL PROGRESS INLAND INTO
   THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY WED. LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH AN ATTENDANT
   COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CNTRL/SRN NV...UT...NWRN
   AZ/CO...CNTRL/SRN WY...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT BASIN
   TOWARDS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD LEAD TO A BROAD SWATH OF CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN MIXING AND WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE
   WILL LIMIT INSOLATION TO SOME EXTENT...ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
   AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN
   8 TO 15 PERCENT IN MOST LOCALES. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS CNTRL
   NV INTO WRN UT THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW 
   WITH SUBSTANTIAL RH RECOVERY AND PROBABLE WETTING RAINFALL.
   
   ...FAR ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS...
   DESPITE A STEEP LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER...THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WRN FRINGE OF A TIGHT
   SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SUSTAINED SELY
   SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 25 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
   INCREASE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS...A NARROW
   CORRIDOR OF RH VALUES DIPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN
   LOCALIZED/SHORT-DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ...ERN PANHANDLE/NRN FL...
   MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SEWD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A
   COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON...RH
   VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 20 AND 30 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES WARM
   INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL W/NWLYS WILL DIMINISH
   THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH DURING
   THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/29/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 290954
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2009
   
   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ/FOUR CORNERS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A PORTION OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES
   BY EARLY THU. A BROAD BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL PERSIST
   ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...ARCING FROM THE WRN GREAT
   BASIN TO THE FOUR CORNERS AND CNTRL ROCKIES ON WED AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AZ/FOUR CORNERS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE DROUGHT
   
   VERY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF ERN
   UT/AZ AND THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR
   WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED FROM THE IMMEDIATE FOUR CORNERS SWWD
   TOWARDS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. JUXTAPOSITION OF AT LEAST
   MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES /AROUND 15 PERCENT/ WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH SHOULD OCCUR FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN
   AZ TO THE FOUR CORNERS. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS...A
   HIGHER-END CRITICAL THREAT IS EXPECTED.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - A PORTION OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN WED WITH APPROACH OF THE WRN
   CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EWD ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS...A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS AROUND 25 MPH. DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING OFF THE SRN
   ROCKIES SHOULD SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
   PERCENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL RANGES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW / LOW RH / SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE TRANSVERSE RANGES N OF THE
   LOS ANGELES BASIN WED EVENING AND SPREAD SWD ALONG THE PENINSULAR
   RANGES INTO EARLY THU. THIS WILL PROMOTE LITTLE IF ANY RH RECOVERY
   WED NIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD VALUES OF 10 TO
   15 PERCENT. THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT
   AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NWRN GREAT BASIN AND A TROUGH
   SHIFTS OFF THE CA COAST. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH 20 MPH
   BY 09-12Z/THU...WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN FAVORED
   CANYONS/PASSES.
   
   ...CNTRL VALLEY AND WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MTNS OF CA...
   LOCALIZED/MARGINALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF THE
   CNTRL VALLEY ON WED AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE
   SIERRAS WED EVENING/NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN WED
   AS THE WRN CONUS TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...A MODERATELY TIGHT LOW-LEVEL
   PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS AROUND 15
   TO 20 MPH. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
   70S...RH VALUES SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY LOW AROUND 15 PERCENT.
   GUSTY ELYS OFF THE SIERRAS WILL PROMOTE LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT RH
   RECOVERY ALONG THE WRN FOOTHILLS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/29/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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