Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 300841
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
   
   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...FOUR CORNERS...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CO...ERN NM...WRN OK/TX
   PANHANDLES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL
   RANGES...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
   WRN CONUS...REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO CNTRL ROCKIES BY EARLY
   THU. A BELT OF FAST MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...ARCING FROM THE WRN GREAT BASIN TO THE
   FOUR CORNERS AND CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AT THE
   SURFACE...LEE CYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER ERN CO WITH AN ATTENDANT
   DRYLINE DRAPED SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AZ...FOUR CORNERS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE DROUGHT
   
   A HIGH-END TO LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL THREAT IS ANTICIPATED
   THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE SRN GREAT
   BASIN /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL TRACK EWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL
   ROCKIES. THE MOST INTENSE LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL EXIST ALONG AND S
   OF THIS IMPULSE...WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND SUBSTANTIAL
   DRYING OCCURRING TO THE SW AFTER IMPULSE PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE
   FAVORABLY TIMED WITH MAXIMUM HEATING AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...AS RH VALUES FALL TO
   BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN CO...ERN NM...WRN OK/TX
   PANHANDLES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH APPROACH OF THE
   WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EWD ACROSS THE
   HIGH PLAINS...A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING
   OFF THE SRN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN
   15 AND 20 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
   STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH SHOULD EXTEND FARTHER N/NWWD ACROSS ERN
   CO...BUT RECENT WELL-ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL SHOULD MITIGATE THE
   OVERALL THREAT.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL
   RANGES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW / SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE TRANSVERSE RANGES N OF THE
   LOS ANGELES BASIN THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SWD ALONG THE
   PENINSULAR RANGES TOWARDS 12Z THU. THIS WILL PROMOTE LITTLE IF ANY
   RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
   VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
   TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NWRN GREAT
   BASIN...ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY TRENDED WEAKER
   WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF TIGHTENING. THIS SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS AOA 20 MPH MAY BE MORE LOCALIZED THAN PREVIOUSLY
   THOUGHT...LIKELY RESTRICTED TO FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES.
   NEVERTHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN A CRITICAL AREA FOR THE COASTAL RANGES
   INVOF LOS ANGELES BASIN WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
   THROUGH 12Z THU WILL BE LONGER COMPARED TO FARTHER SOUTH.
   
   ...CNTRL VALLEY AND WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MTNS OF CA...
   AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF THE CNTRL
   VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRAS THIS
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE WRN
   CONUS TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...A MODERATELY TIGHT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. WITH
   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S...RH VALUES SHOULD
   BECOME MARGINALLY LOW AROUND 15 PERCENT. GUSTY ELYS OFF THE SIERRAS
   WILL PROMOTE LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY ALONG THE WRN
   SLOPES.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/30/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 300951
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0451 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E-CNTRL NM...NWRN TX...TX/OK
   PANHANDLES...FAR SWRN KS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO
   THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MO RIVER
   VALLEY BY EARLY FRI. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS
   THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NRN
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD...AS AN
   UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL RANGES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW / LONG DURATION OF LOW RH
   / SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE ONGOING...AND LIKELY PEAKING WITH
   SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH BETWEEN 12-18Z ON THU. THE
   LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THEREAFTER WITH WEAKER
   OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING THU NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...POOR RH
   RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO VERY LONG
   DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH. MIN RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT WILL
   BE COMMON THU AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - E-CNTRL NM...NWRN TX...TX/OK
   PANHANDLES...FAR SWRN KS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED THU MORNING...LOW-LEVEL
   TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN PERIPHERY
   OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS
   FROM 20 TO 25 MPH PEAKING IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
   DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING WILL PROMOTE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S
   AND RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO BETWEEN 6 AND 12 PERCENT. MORE MARGINAL
   RH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM
   AND IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL AREA IN THE OK PANHANDLE/KS.
   HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS IN BOTH REGIONS SHOULD BE STRONGER /AROUND
   25 TO 30 MPH/ THAN ELSEWHERE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 09/30/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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