Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 300841
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
VALID 301200Z - 011200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ...FOUR CORNERS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CO...ERN NM...WRN OK/TX
PANHANDLES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL
RANGES...
...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS...REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO CNTRL ROCKIES BY EARLY
THU. A BELT OF FAST MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...ARCING FROM THE WRN GREAT BASIN TO THE
FOUR CORNERS AND CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AT THE
SURFACE...LEE CYCLONE WILL BE CENTERED OVER ERN CO WITH AN ATTENDANT
DRYLINE DRAPED SWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AZ...FOUR CORNERS...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE DROUGHT
A HIGH-END TO LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL THREAT IS ANTICIPATED
THIS AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE SRN GREAT
BASIN /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL TRACK EWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL
ROCKIES. THE MOST INTENSE LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL EXIST ALONG AND S
OF THIS IMPULSE...WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING OCCURRING TO THE SW AFTER IMPULSE PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLY TIMED WITH MAXIMUM HEATING AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH...AS RH VALUES FALL TO
BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SERN CO...ERN NM...WRN OK/TX
PANHANDLES...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
SWLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH APPROACH OF THE
WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE DRYLINE MIXES EWD ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS...A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING
OFF THE SRN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN
15 AND 20 PERCENT AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH SHOULD EXTEND FARTHER N/NWWD ACROSS ERN
CO...BUT RECENT WELL-ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL SHOULD MITIGATE THE
OVERALL THREAT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA COASTAL
RANGES...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW / SEVERE DROUGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE TRANSVERSE RANGES N OF THE
LOS ANGELES BASIN THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD SWD ALONG THE
PENINSULAR RANGES TOWARDS 12Z THU. THIS WILL PROMOTE LITTLE IF ANY
RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD
VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NWRN GREAT
BASIN...ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECASTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY TRENDED WEAKER
WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF TIGHTENING. THIS SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS AOA 20 MPH MAY BE MORE LOCALIZED THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...LIKELY RESTRICTED TO FAVORED CANYONS/PASSES.
NEVERTHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN A CRITICAL AREA FOR THE COASTAL RANGES
INVOF LOS ANGELES BASIN WHERE DURATION OF MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
THROUGH 12Z THU WILL BE LONGER COMPARED TO FARTHER SOUTH.
...CNTRL VALLEY AND WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MTNS OF CA...
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP INVOF THE CNTRL
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRAS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE WRN
CONUS TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...A MODERATELY TIGHT LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH. WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S...RH VALUES SHOULD
BECOME MARGINALLY LOW AROUND 15 PERCENT. GUSTY ELYS OFF THE SIERRAS
WILL PROMOTE LITTLE TO NO OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY ALONG THE WRN
SLOPES.
..GRAMS.. 09/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 300951
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2009
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E-CNTRL NM...NWRN TX...TX/OK
PANHANDLES...FAR SWRN KS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO
THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY BY EARLY FRI. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD...AS AN
UPSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL RANGES...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW / LONG DURATION OF LOW RH
/ SEVERE DROUGHT
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE ONGOING...AND LIKELY PEAKING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH BETWEEN 12-18Z ON THU. THE
LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THEREAFTER WITH WEAKER
OFFSHORE WINDS REDEVELOPING THU NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...POOR RH
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO VERY LONG
DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH. MIN RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT WILL
BE COMMON THU AFTERNOON.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - E-CNTRL NM...NWRN TX...TX/OK
PANHANDLES...FAR SWRN KS...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED THU MORNING...LOW-LEVEL
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS AND THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS
FROM 20 TO 25 MPH PEAKING IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING WILL PROMOTE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S/80S
AND RH VALUES PLUMMETING TO BETWEEN 6 AND 12 PERCENT. MORE MARGINAL
RH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM
AND IN THE NRN PORTION OF THE CRITICAL AREA IN THE OK PANHANDLE/KS.
HOWEVER...SUSTAINED WINDS IN BOTH REGIONS SHOULD BE STRONGER /AROUND
25 TO 30 MPH/ THAN ELSEWHERE.
..GRAMS.. 09/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...