Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 010852
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT THU OCT 01 2009
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL NM...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...OK
PANHANDLE...NRN TX PANHANDLE...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO
THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH EARLY FRI. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NWRN
GREAT BASIN WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD...AS AN UPSTREAM
UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS SWD ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL RANGES...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW / LONG DURATION OF LOW RH
/ SEVERE DROUGHT
RECENT MESONET OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON ALONG CANYONS/PASSES OF THE SRN CA
COASTAL RANGES. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THEREAFTER.
WIDESPREAD MIN RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY FRI...LEADING TO POOR RH RECOVERY AND VERY LONG DURATIONS OF
CRITICALLY LOW RH.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CNTRL NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / ABNORMAL DRYNESS
VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WLYS BETWEEN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND
SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
CNTRL ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. THE PRESENCE OF SINGLE
DIGIT SURFACE DEW POINTS ATTM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CRITICALLY
LOW RH BY LATE MORNING...BEING CONCOMITANT WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...OK
PANHANDLE...NRN TX PANHANDLE...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
STRONG LOW-LEVEL NWLYS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
STRONGER FLOW...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE
A FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION WITH LOW RH FROM SERN CO INTO THE NERN TX
PANHANDLE. GIVEN UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE ATTM...ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING EFFECTS...RH
VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
...ERN NM/NWRN TX...
THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL RELATIVE TO THE
CRITICAL AREAS TO THE W AND N. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
TREND WEAKER WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL W/NWLYS IN THE WAKE OF
COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AND REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING FLOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...JUXTAPOSITION
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL LIKELY BE OF SHORT-DURATION AND
MITIGATE A CRITICAL THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 10/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 010935
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0435 AM CDT THU OCT 01 2009
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS WILL SLOW IN EWD
PROGRESSION COMPARED TO DAY 1...BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO MIDWEST BY EARLY SAT. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN
AS IT SHIFTS FROM NRN IA/SRN MN TO LK MI. IN THE WEST...AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SWD FROM SRN BRITISH
COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
...NWRN TO S-CNTRL KS...
ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A FAVORABLE
JUXTAPOSITION WITH LOW RH WILL ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND
SUSTAINED SURFACE NWLYS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT SHOULD BE
COMMON. NEVERTHELESS...ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS
DURING THE PAST MONTH AND RELATIVELY GREEN FUELS SHOULD MITIGATE A
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 10/01/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...