Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 010852
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0352 AM CDT THU OCT 01 2009
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL NM...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...OK
   PANHANDLE...NRN TX PANHANDLE...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO
   THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MO RIVER
   VALLEY THROUGH EARLY FRI. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD
   ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NWRN
   GREAT BASIN WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT GRADUALLY EWD...AS AN UPSTREAM
   UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS SWD ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL RANGES...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW / LONG DURATION OF LOW RH
   / SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   RECENT MESONET OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
   HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON ALONG CANYONS/PASSES OF THE SRN CA
   COASTAL RANGES. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD PEAK LATER THIS
   MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING THEREAFTER.
   WIDESPREAD MIN RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON. WEAKER OFFSHORE WINDS WILL REDEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH
   EARLY FRI...LEADING TO POOR RH RECOVERY AND VERY LONG DURATIONS OF
   CRITICALLY LOW RH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - CNTRL NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / ABNORMAL DRYNESS
   
   VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WLYS BETWEEN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND
   SACRAMENTO MTNS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
   CNTRL ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. THE PRESENCE OF SINGLE
   DIGIT SURFACE DEW POINTS ATTM WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CRITICALLY
   LOW RH BY LATE MORNING...BEING CONCOMITANT WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR SERN CO...FAR SWRN KS...OK
   PANHANDLE...NRN TX PANHANDLE...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / RECENT DRYNESS
   
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL NWLYS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS IN
   THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE
   STRONGER FLOW...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL CREATE
   A FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION WITH LOW RH FROM SERN CO INTO THE NERN TX
   PANHANDLE. GIVEN UPSTREAM SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE
   FRONT RANGE ATTM...ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING EFFECTS...RH
   VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO BETWEEN 12 AND 20 PERCENT BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ...ERN NM/NWRN TX...
   THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL RELATIVE TO THE
   CRITICAL AREAS TO THE W AND N. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
   TREND WEAKER WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL W/NWLYS IN THE WAKE OF
   COLD FRONT PASSAGE...AND REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DIMINISHING FLOW
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW CRITICAL
   THRESHOLDS DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...JUXTAPOSITION
   WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH WILL LIKELY BE OF SHORT-DURATION AND
   MITIGATE A CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/01/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 010935
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0435 AM CDT THU OCT 01 2009
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS WILL SLOW IN EWD
   PROGRESSION COMPARED TO DAY 1...BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES TO MIDWEST BY EARLY SAT. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN
   AS IT SHIFTS FROM NRN IA/SRN MN TO LK MI. IN THE WEST...AN
   UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SWD FROM SRN BRITISH
   COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
   
   ...NWRN TO S-CNTRL KS...
   ON THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A FAVORABLE
   JUXTAPOSITION WITH LOW RH WILL ENHANCE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT AND
   SUSTAINED SURFACE NWLYS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
   THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...RH VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT SHOULD BE
   COMMON. NEVERTHELESS...ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL IN MOST LOCATIONS
   DURING THE PAST MONTH AND RELATIVELY GREEN FUELS SHOULD MITIGATE A
   WIDESPREAD CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/01/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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