Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 030714
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN-DESERT
   SW / ERN SIERRA FRONT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER JET STREAK AND
   ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE MOVING SWD NEAR THE PACIFIC NW COASTLINE.  THIS
   SYSTEM WILL INVOKE DOWNSTREAM STRENGTHENING OF FLOW FIELDS WITHIN
   THE SUB-TROPICAL BELT OF WSWLY/S OVER PARTS OF THE SWRN U.S. 
   STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL OCCUR DURING THE
   DAY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND ERN SIERRA FRONT--LEADING TO CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS S OF A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS
   OF THE GREAT BASIN.  THE WRN U.S. SYSTEM AND A CUTOFF CYCLONE OVER
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN MAINTAINING SEASONABLY STRONG SRN
   STREAM FLOW OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 AS UPPER TROUGHING
   AFFECTS PORTIONS OF THE ERN SEABOARD.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN-DESERT
   SW / ERN SIERRA FRONT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH
   
   STRONG SWLY SUSTAINED WINDS /AROUND 20 MPH/ WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
   PROBABLY DEVELOP AND ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA AS H7
   FLOW INCREASES UP TO 30 KTS.  TRENDS IN MODEL DATA ALONG WITH 00Z/03
   4KM MODEL DATA INDICATE STRONG SWLY/S WILL PROBABLY OCCUR ALONG THE
   ERN SIERRA FRONT AND WRN GREAT BASIN--FURTHER W AND N THAN
   ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED.  ALTHOUGH MIN RH...DESPITE DOWNSLOPE
   COMPONENT...IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY LOW ACCORDING TO THE
   LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER THIS AREA...STRENGTH OF WINDS
   /SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 50 MPH/ WARRANTS A
   CRITICAL DESIGNATION.  ELSEWHERE...MIN RH WILL GENERALLY HOVER IN
   THE 10-20 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AND
   PRIOR TO COLD FRONT PASSAGE IN NRN AREAS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/03/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 030823
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 AM CDT SAT OCT 03 2009
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NRN AZ / SERN UT...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH/NRN GREAT BASIN CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE MAIN
   SYSTEM OF NOTE FOR THE PERIOD.  A BELT OF VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL
   WINDS WILL ROUND THE EQUATOR-WARD SIDE OF THE WRN U.S. TROUGH AND
   NOSE INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS REGIONS.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   BASIN.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A NARROW ZONE OF LOW RH AND STRONG TO
   VERY STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF
   UT AND AZ.  DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN U.S. SYSTEM...ACROSS THE PLAINS
   EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY...WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
   DEPARTING NERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF NRN AZ / SERN UT...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / MODERATE DROUGHT
   
   RECENT ENSEMBLE RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW
   RH/STRONG WINDS OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA SUNDAY BETWEEN FORECAST
   PRECIPITATION AND A COLD FRONT.  WITH H7 FLOW UP TO 50 KTS
   OVERSPREADING THE REGION...STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS /SUSTAINED
   20-40 MPH/ ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 POSSIBLE AT
   TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP AND SUPPORT
   DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER.  MIN RH IS FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
   TEENS DURING PEAK HEATING.  TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR A SEEMINGLY
   MORE ROBUST/WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCLUDE 1)INCREASED CLOUD
   COVER AND 2)SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WITH
   OROGRAPHICALLY-ENHANCED/FORCED PRECIPITATION AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT
   OVER PORTIONS OF UT.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/03/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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