Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 040639
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009
   
   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY DENOTES AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN
   ORE.  THIS FEATURE WILL MIGRATE SEWD COINCIDENTLY AS AN ATTENDANT
   MID-UPPER SPEED MAXIMA ENCROACHES UPON THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
   TODAY.  A BELT OF STRONG ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE DOWNSTREAM
   OF THE WRN U.S. SYSTEM.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
   TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRONG TO
   VERY STRONG WINDS WILL ENHANCE OTHERWISE MARGINALIZED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY TO NON-CRITICAL MIN RH ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AZ
   INTO SRN UT.
   
   ...SRN NV/SRN UT/NRN AZ...
   TRENDS IN RECENT PROGNOSTIC DATA INDICATE ONLY POCKETS OF MARGINALLY
   LOW MIN RH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION /20-30 PERCENT/ WITH THE
   GREATEST PROBABILITY OF LOWER RH /UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S/ NEAR THE
   GRAND CANYON AND SRN NV.  THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY LIMIT AN OTHERWISE
   GREATER FIRE WEATHER THREAT DESPITE FORECAST SUSTAINED WINDS OF
   20-40 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH IN AREAS.  SHORT DURATION
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A LOCALIZED AREA
   CENTERED NEAR NWRN AZ AND SRN NV.  HAVE ACCORDINGLY ADJUSTED
   PREVIOUS FORECAST/S CRITICAL AREA TO SEE TEXT TO ACCOUNT FOR
   GENERALLY HIGHER FORECAST MIN RH.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/04/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 040813
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0313 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NERN NM / NWRN TX
   PANHANDLE / EXTREME SERN CO...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ELONGATED FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWWD
   INTO THE GREAT BASIN.  A PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY
   EJECT NEWD DURING THE DAY AS AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER THE NRN
   GREAT BASIN WEAKENS AND EVOLVES INTO AN OPEN TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS.  AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE PLAINS...IT WILL INDUCE
   LEE CYCLOGENESIS INVOF SERN CO--THEREBY AIDING IN MOISTURE RETURN
   INTO SWRN KS SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE.  W OF A DEVELOPING DRYLINE
   AND RESIDUAL SRN PLAINS FRONT EXTENDING NWWD TO THE SURFACE
   LOW...STRONG SWLY WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   S-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PARTS OF NERN NM / NWRN TX PANHANDLE
   / EXTREME SERN CO...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / RECENT DRYNESS / MARGINALLY LOW
   RH
   
   AS THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOIST PLUME MOVES EWD DURING THE
   DAY...AMPLE SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. 
   LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS/PLANAR MODEL DATA ACROSS THE REGION SHOW
   STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVEL DRY
   SLOT EMANATING FROM THE SW DESERTS AND MOVING NEWD INTO THE CNTRL
   PLAINS.  STRONG SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS /20-30 MPH/ WITH HIGHER GUSTS
   ARE PROBABLE ONCE DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING COMMENCES DURING PEAK
   HEATING.  SREF AND 00Z/04 DETERMINISTIC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   MIN RH TO ONLY FALL IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.  THIS WILL
   LIKELY SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR AN OTHERWISE MORE ROBUST FIRE
   WEATHER SCENARIO.
   
   ..SMITH.. 10/04/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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