Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 270843
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR AZ...WRN NM...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN CA INVOF SAN
   GABRIEL/SAN BERNARDINO MTNS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN
   GREAT BASIN WILL UNDERGO MAJOR AMPLIFICATION AS AN INTENSE NWLY
   MID-LEVEL JET /AROUND 125 MPH AT 500 MB/ DIVES SWD ACROSS CA. 
   MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS AIDING
   IN THE DEEPENING OF A SURFACE CYCLONE THAT SHOULD BECOME CENTERED
   OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BE
   DRAPED SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/SRN CA AND CONTINUE TO
   PUSH SEWD TOWARDS THE SRN ROCKIES/NRN BAJA CA BY EARLY WED.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - AZ...WRN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: VERY STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / ABNORMAL DRYNESS TO
   SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   LOW/MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF
   THE AMPLIFYING WRN CONUS TROUGH. AS THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEEPENS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL LIKELY BECOME
   WIDESPREAD BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS
   WITH CURRENT SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
   ACROSS MUCH OF AZ...RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY FALL TO BETWEEN 6 AND
   12 PERCENT AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
   HIGH-END TO LOCALIZED EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
   INVOF MONGOLLON RIM.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF SRN CA INVOF SAN
   GABRIEL/SAN BERNARDINO MTNS...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATELY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW / MODERATELY LOW
   RH / SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE N/NE AND REMAIN STRONG IN THE WAKE
   OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY WED
   WITHIN FAVORABLY-ORIENTED CANYONS/PASSES. DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS WILL AT
   LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET THE RATHER STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA. THIS SHOULD
   LEAD TO RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT...SUPPORTING A
   LOWER-END CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ...COASTAL AND INTERIOR CNTRL/SRN CA FROM THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY TO
   THE MTNS NW OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN...
   N/NWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL INTENSIFY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT
   PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING
   LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A DEEPENING MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
   SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...LOCALLY
   STRONGER INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN IN VENTURA/SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES.
   DESPITE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA AND TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ONLY IN THE
   60S TO LOWER 70S...RH VALUES SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY LOW /FROM 15
   TO 20 PERCENT/ AT PEAK HEATING. THIS MAY LEAD TO SHORT-DURATION
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH WELL ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL EARLIER
   THIS MONTH SHOULD TO SOME EXTENT MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/27/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 270943
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0443 AM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGE INVOF LOS
   ANGELES BASIN SWD...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SRN AZ/SWRN NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY
   EWD REACHING THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY EARLY THU. AN INTENSE
   MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
   AXIS ARCING FROM CA TO NRN MEXICO TO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME CENTERED INVOF OK/TX PANHANDLE
   WED AFTERNOON...WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWWD ACROSS THE
   SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO NRN MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD SHIFT
   FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL RANGE INVOF LOS
   ANGELES BASIN SWD...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW / LOW RH / SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG N/NELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE
   /BEYOND NORMAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN FLUCTUATIONS/ THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING OVERALL AS THE LARGE-SCALE WRN CONUS
   TROUGH SHIFTS EWD. SUSTAINED SURFACE SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY PEAK
   AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH IN CANYONS/PASSES. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES
   SHOULD MAINLY WARM INTO THE 60S...PERSISTENT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
   WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD LOW RH OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT
   RH RECOVERY SHOULD BE MODEST AT BEST GIVEN THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE
   FLOW.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - FAR SRN AZ/SWRN NM...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / ABNORMAL DRYNESS TO
   SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   WED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER
   COMPARED TO TUE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. EVEN SO...LARGE-SCALE
   SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE
   MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WED SHOULD RESULT IN SURFACE DEW POINTS
   PLUMMETING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO
   BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT DURING MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS
   ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING WEAKENING LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE
   DAY. HOWEVER...A MODERATELY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STILL
   SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/27/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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