Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 280832
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2009
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CA COASTAL RANGE INVOF LOS
   ANGELES BASIN SWD...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN AZ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT
   BASIN/SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS EWD REACHING THE CNTRL/SRN
   ROCKIES BY EARLY THU. AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET WILL BE MAINTAINED
   ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH AXIS ARCING FROM CA TO NRN MEXICO
   TO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
   ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES ONTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A
   SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND SHIFT INTO
   THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CA COASTAL RANGE INVOF LOS
   ANGELES BASIN SWD...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW / LOW RH / SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   RECENT MESONET OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
   FROM 15 TO 25 MPH JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES OF 10 TO 20
   PERCENT...E/SE OF THE LOS ANGELES BASIN ALONG ADJACENT SLOPES OF THE
   COASTAL MTNS. THIS WILL LIKELY EXPAND SWD TOWARDS THE MEXICAN BORDER
   THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTENT DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
   ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW RH OF 6 TO 12
   PERCENT. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WED EVENING/OVERNIGHT
   AS LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY SUBSIDES...HOWEVER RH RECOVERY
   SHOULD REMAIN POOR.
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN AZ...
   
   PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG WINDS / LOW RH / SEVERE DROUGHT
   
   AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 25 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED
   TO TUE /GENERALLY IN THE 50S AT LOWER TO MID-ELEVATIONS/ IN THE WAKE
   OF A SHARP COLD FRONT PASSAGE. EVEN SO...LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND
   DRYING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
   DIGITS. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT DURING
   MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING
   WEAKENING OF INTENSE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
   DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WLYS LIKELY
   REACHING 25 TO 30 MPH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/28/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 280938
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0438 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2009
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES WILL
   BIFURCATE WITH A SHORT WAVE EVOLVING NEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST
   AND A SECONDARY WAVE ANCHORING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
   SRN ROCKIES. IN ITS WAKE...RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PACIFIC
   NW/NRN CA.
   
   ...SRN CA COASTAL AREA...
   WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ONGOING 12Z/THU IN ADJACENT
   SLOPES TO THE COASTAL MTNS. ALTHOUGH CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS
   SUGGESTS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER COMPARED TO
   DAY 1...30 TO 40 MPH N/NELY WINDS AT 700 MB WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   LOCALLY GUSTY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD IN FAVORED
   CANYONS/PASSES. SINGLE-DIGIT RH VALUES SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
   COMMON THU AFTERNOON...WITH LONG DURATIONS OF RH VALUES AOB 15
   PERCENT APPEARING PROBABLE GIVEN POOR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 10/28/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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