Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 050800
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 AM CST THU NOV 05 2009
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD
   TODAY AS A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH BIFURCATES WITH A PORTION OF
   THIS TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW INVOF SRN CA/BAJA TOWARDS
   FRIDAY MORNING.  AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH WILL RESIDE IN LEE OF THE
   ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION.  A
   DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO
   WITH LOW RH DEVELOPING OVER THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE
   FL PENINSULA.
   
   ...FL PANHANDLE AND N/N-CNTRL FL PENINSULA...
   AS AFTERNOON TEMPS QUICKLY RECOVER WITHIN DRY CONTINENTAL
   AIRMASS...MIN RH WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. 
   THE STRONGEST BELT OF H85 WINDS /20-25 KTS/ WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
   THE FL PANHANDLE ACCORDING TO MODEL CONSENSUS.  LATEST ETAKF/NAM
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INVERSION HEIGHTS DIFFER SOMEWHAT...WITH THE
   ETAKF SUGGESTING LOWER HEIGHTS--NAM HIGHER HEIGHTS.  A COMPARISON OF
   THE OBSERVED 00Z/05 TLH RAOB WITH THESE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWED THE
   NAM HANDLED THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILE THE BEST.  THIS
   IMPLIES PERHAPS DEEPER MIXING MAY OCCUR--RESULTING IN STRONGER
   WINDS.  DESPITE PERIODIC SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 15 MPH /ESPECIALLY
   OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/...LIMITING FACTORS PRECLUDING AN OTHERWISE
   GREATER THREAT INCLUDE 1) NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL
   OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THE PAST 30 DAYS...2)FLEETING NATURE OF
   LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 11/05/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 050803
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 AM CST THU NOV 05 2009
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER BAJA/SONORA MEXICO WILL MEANDER EWD REMOVED
   FROM THE BELT OF STRONGER WLY/S WHICH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN
   TIER OF STATES.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ALONG THE E
   COAST...ENABLING DRIER/POST-FRONTAL TRAJECTORIES TO CONTINUE TO
   INFILTRATE THE FL PANHANDLE.
   
   ...FL PANHANDLE...
   MIN RH WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S/UPPER 20S DURING PEAK
   HEATING AMIDST A DRY AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY 0.25 INCH PRECIPITABLE
   WATER.  HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER FRIDAY COMPARED TO
   THURSDAY.  THIS WILL BE DUE IN PART TO A SLIGHTLY WEAKER PRESSURE
   GRADIENT AND SHALLOWER MIXING DEPTHS /PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS/.  AS A
   RESULT...SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT
   /NEAR 10 MPH/.
   
   ..SMITH.. 11/05/2009
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home