Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 231634
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 AM CDT TUE MAR 23 2010
   
   VALID 231700Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR W TX AND EXTREME S CNTRL NM...
   
   ...FAR W TX AND EXTREME S CNTRL NM...
   THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
   OUTLOOK. HOWEVER...THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE STRONGER
   WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED FROM NEAR EPZ TO THE GUADALUPE MTNS
   WHERE 16Z SFC OBS SHOWED WIND SPEEDS ALREADY IN THE 12 TO 23 KT
   RANGE. 16Z VIS SATELLITE SHOWED LITTLE CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION
   AND MIXING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO ALSO
   BE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. GIVEN INCREASED W/SWLY BOUNDARY
   LAYER FLOW AND MIN RH VALUES AROUND 6 TO 12 PERCENT...CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THEREAFTER A SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
   WITH A SFC LOW OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES WILL BRING LIGHTER NRLY
   WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALLOWING OVERNIGHT RH VALUES TO CLIMB
   INTO THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE/GRAMS.. 03/23/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0959 AM CDT TUE MAR 23 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS OF 07Z...WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM
   CNTRL MT TO CNTRL CA...WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS APPROACHING THE SRN
   CA/NRN BAJA CA COAST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO PHASE
   OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN NM/WRN TX. ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS IN THESE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 TO 15
   MPH...CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM WILL PREVENT DEEPER
   MIXING THAT COULD ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO GUST TO THE SURFACE.
   EXTREMELY DRY LOW LEVELS...REFLECTED ON NM AND WRN TX 00Z
   SOUNDINGS...WILL LINGER...ALLOWING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO ONCE AGAIN
   FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE
   MID 60S TO MID 70S. HOWEVER...LIGHTER WINDS WILL GENERALLY TEMPER
   THE FIRE THREAT.
   
   FARTHER E...AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
   PROGRESS NEWD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST. BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL
   FOLLOW. ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR 35
   PERCENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WINDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS WILL
   LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 231821
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0121 PM CDT TUE MAR 23 2010
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE/GRAMS.. 03/23/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1001 AM CDT TUE MAR 23 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH OVER NWRN NM WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD
   INTO CNTRL OK...DRIVING A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE TO THE WRN GULF.
   SUBCRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
   FAR WRN TX...WITH WLY WINDS INCREASING BY AFTERNOON TO NEAR 15 MPH.
   BY EVENING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO NWLY...INCREASING TO NEAR 20
   TO 25 MPH...THOUGH WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES DUE IN PART TO DIURNAL
   COOLING...AND FURTHER COOLING AS THE FRONT PASSES...RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE AT THE SURFACE. SHOULD STRONGER WINDS BE
   FORECAST WITH THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...A CRITICAL MAY NEED TO BE OUTLINED. 
   
   FARTHER E...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN
   STATES...WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AS FAR NORTH AS THE MID
   ATLANTIC. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR CRITICAL
   THRESHOLDS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF NRN FLORIDA...THOUGH LIGHT
   WINDS WILL TEMPER THE THREAT. 
   
   ELSEWHERE...UPPER RIDGING WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE WEST...WITH DRY
   CONDITIONS ACROSS A WIDESPREAD AREA...THOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS. AN
   UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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