Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 251855
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010
   
   VALID 251700Z - 261200Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR VALID TIME
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 03/25/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH NOTED ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK
   BORDER AS OF 06Z WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD TOWARDS THE MID
   ATLANTIC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING EWD FROM THE WRN
   GULF TO THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG WINDS ACROSS
   MUCH OF OK/TX WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM
   PROGRESSES EWD...WHILE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT LOWER RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR WRN TX...WHERE DRIER
   CONDITIONS WILL RETURN...THOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS. 
   
   FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL
   SHIFT EWD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW OVER
   THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST OVERNIGHT.
   ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE AT THE BASE OF THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE
   SOUTHWEST...AMPLIFYING OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE PERIOD.
   AT THE SURFACE...STRENGTHENING WLY WINDS ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
   NEXT SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY
   OVER SRN NV...WITH STRENGTHENING SURFACE WINDS RESULTING. SUSTAINED
   SPEEDS NEAR 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN
   CA/WRN AZ AND SRN NV WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO
   THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
   RECOVERY WILL BE POOR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...PER DAY SHIFT
   COORDINATION WITH LOCAL WFO/S...FUEL CONDITIONS DO NOT SUPPORT
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN THESE AREAS...DESPITE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
   METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 251824
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0124 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2010
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN NM AND
   FAR SW TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SE AZ...S CNTRL AND SERN
   NM...THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND SW TX...
   
   PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL EXPAND THE CRITICAL AREA FARTHER
   W AND UPGRADE S CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA TO EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL.
   
   ...FAR SE AZ INTO E CNTRL NM...WRN TX PANHANDLE AND SW TX...
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID
   LEVEL W/SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 60 MPH. 12Z FORECAST MODEL
   SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP...WELL MIXED LAYERS WITH DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
   TRANSPORT OF HIGHER MID LEVEL WINDS TRANSLATING TO SFC SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS AOA 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AOA 45 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
   WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...S CNTRL AND MUCH OF SE NM INTO FAR SW TX...
   FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT DRY
   CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
   FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 5 PERCENT
   FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MIXED LAYERS TO
   AROUND 12 KFT AT MANY LOCATIONS. WITH STRONG DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
   TRANSPORT...STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SWLY SFC
   SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH. AFTER
   COORDINATION WITH THE SWCC AND LOCAL WFO/S...FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED
   TO BE AT LEAST HIGH TO VERY HIGH AT ELEVATIONS AOB 6500 FEET LEADING
   TO A SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 03/25/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0238 AM CDT THU MAR 25 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN WILL DEEPEN AND PROGRESS
   EWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. STRONG WLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
   OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AS THIS OCCURS...WITH CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN NM AND WRN TX. 
   
   AHEAD OF THIS...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL STATES WILL QUICKLY
   MOVE EWD TO THE ERN STATES...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE
   ATLANTIC COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION.
   
   ...SRN/ERN NM AND WRN TX...
   SIGNIFICANT FIRE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
   UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST. DRY AIR MASS WILL
   NOT ONLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S AND RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS...BUT DEEP MIXING
   THAT WILL ALLOW TRANSPORT OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
   CURRENT FORECASTS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 25 TO
   40 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 55 MPH. PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO
   BE UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS SHOULD FUELS
   APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE.
   
   ...WISCONSIN...
   ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL...IN THE MID 40S TO
   LOWER 50S...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ONCE AGAIN ANTICIPATED TO FALL
   INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SUSTAINED SLY WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20
   MPH WILL ELEVATE THE FIRE THREAT IN AREAS WHERE MODERATE TO SEVERE
   DROUGHT IS PERSISTING.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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