Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 261653
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 AM CDT FRI MAR 26 2010
   
   VALID 261700Z - 271200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN TO E-CNTRL
   NM/PORTIONS OF WRN TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN AZ/CNTRL NM/WRN TX...
   
   ...SOUTHWEST TO SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   VERY IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD
   CRITICAL AND EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
   EARLY EVENING. PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING ON TRACK WITH LITTLE
   CHANGE NEEDED TO THE CRITICAL AREA. HAVE EXPANDED THE EXTREMELY
   CRITICAL AREA FARTHER WEST ACROSS S-CNTRL NM...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
   OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND RH VALUES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT WILL BE LIKELY. 
   
   STRONG SLY WINDS WILL EXIST FARTHER E/NE OF THE CRITICAL AREA...IN
   THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK. HOWEVER...LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS
   EAST OF DRYLINE AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING SHOULD RESULT IN
   ONLY A BRIEF DURATION OF MARGINALLY LOW RH.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/26/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT FRI MAR 26 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVEL SEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES
   TODAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING FROM SRN AZ/NM INTO W
   TX. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL LIE ACROSS CNTRL AZ AND NM.
   LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY FROM SW CO INTO ERN NM/W TX S
   PLAINS. WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...WINDS WILL
   INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN EXTREME FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM SERN NM INTO W TX. ELSEWHERE...RELATIVELY
   DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE OH VALLEY SWD ACROSS THE LOWER
   MS VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
   
   ...SERN AZ INTO NM AND W TX...
   AREA SOUNDINGS FROM 00Z FRI SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
   THE REGION WITH MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE TEENS. AS
   THE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE AREA...AND A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
   OVER SE CO...WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
   AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED FROM
   SRN NM INTO FAR W TX AND THE WRN TX S PLAINS. STRONG HEATING AND
   MIXING WILL MAXIMIZE WIND GUSTS WITH SPEEDS OF 50-60 MPH
   LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA. HIGH
   TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE 70S EXCEPT FOR 80S OVER
   FAR SE NM AND SW TX. MIN RH LEVELS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE SINGLE
   DIGITS AS A RESULT...PRODUCING A POTENT COMBINATION OF HIGH WIND AND
   LOW RH.
   
   GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNED POWER LINES
   WHICH MAY SERVE AS A FIRE IGNITION SOURCE IN THE POPULATION
   CENTERS...MAINLY FROM EL PASO TO LUBBOCK...AND DESPITE MARGINAL FUEL
   CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX S PLAINS. AFTER SUNSET...RH
   RECOVERY WILL REMAIN POOR ACROSS W TX...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
   TO COOL AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES BY MIDNIGHT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 261903
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0203 PM CDT FRI MAR 26 2010
   
   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SWRN TX...
   
   ...SWRN TX...
   THE OVERALL THREAT WILL BE MORE SUBDUED COMPARED TO DAY 1...AS
   LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER 12Z SAT WITH A SURFACE
   CYCLONE FILLING WHILE IT TRACKS FROM WRN OK TOWARDS THE OZARK
   PLATEAU. NEVERTHELESS...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH PERSISTING FROM THE LATE MORNING
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
   WITH RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT...LEADING TO
   SEVERAL HOURS OF MARGINAL TO LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 03/26/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0351 AM CDT FRI MAR 26 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS KS AND OK WITH THE BASE OF
   THE UPPER TROUGH FROM SRN AZ/NM INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY SAT
   AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND
   WILL EXTEND INTO THE SRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHERE DRY NWLY FLOW WILL
   OCCUR IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME. A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER SW AND W-CNTRL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON
   WITH CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
   
   ...EXTREME SERN NM INTO W CNTRL TX...
   SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED SAT AFTERNOON WITH 
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING. MIN RH WILL LIKELY DROP TO AROUND
   8-12 PERCENT ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WIND GUSTS IN
   EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE LIKELY AS WELL. FUEL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS
   FAVORABLE FOR FIRES INTO CNTRL TX ALTHOUGH WARM...DRY AND WINDY
   CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THERE AS WELL.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN DRY OFFSHORE FLOW
   ACROSS SRN CA ON SATURDAY. WINDS GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY BELOW
   PASSES AND CANYONS ALONG WITH MIN RH IN THE TEENS. HOWEVER...FUELS
   REMAIN TOO MOIST FOR ANY FIRE CONCERNS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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