Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 291631
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 AM CDT MON MAR 29 2010
   
   VALID 291700Z - 301200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN CONUS AND
   INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. 
   
   ...ERN WY...SWRN SD AND WRN NEB...
   12Z RAOB FROM RAP SHOWED LITTLE MOISTURE RECOVERY OVERNIGHT WITH
   MORNING RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS. 16Z SFC OBS ALSO SHOWED RH
   VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S ACROSS MUCH OF ERN WY...SW SD AND
   WRN NEB. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR RH VALUES TO
   DIP INTO THE 12 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA WITH A
   WELL MIXED LAYER TO AROUND 700 MB. GIVEN GUSTY W/SWLY SFC WINDS OF
   AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
   LOW 70S...AT LEAST A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST IN
   AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH MOISTURE FROM SNOW MELT OR RECENT
   RAIN/SNOW.
   
   ...SERN NM...SW TX...WRN OK...
   GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS /AOB 15 MPH/ WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL LIMIT
   THE OVERALL WILDFIRE THREAT TODAY DESPITE WARM TEMPERATURES AND RH
   VALUES IN THE 7 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 03/29/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0318 AM CDT MON MAR 29 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WILL FLATTEN TODAY
   AS A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN STATES. AT THE
   SURFACE...A LEE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON FROM
   ERN MT SWD INTO ERN NM/W TX...WITH INCREASING WINDS. A VERY DRY AIR
   MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM SRN CA INTO W TX...WITH A MARGINAL
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
   ELSEWHERE...STRONG WINDS WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
   STRETCH FROM THE WRN GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES BENEATH THE
   DEVELOPING TROUGH. COOL BUT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL GULF COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
   
   ...SW TX...SERN NM...WRN OK...
   SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 MPH RANGE BY LATE
   AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS. AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS IS IN
   PLACE...AND STRONG HEATING WILL HELP RH TO FALL INTO THE 5-10
   PERCENT RANGE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NERN NM INTO WRN
   OK TO THE LOWER 80S SW TX.
   
   ...SERN WY...WRN NEB...SWRN SD...
   INCREASING WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OF 20-30 MPH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS ERN WY LATER TODAY. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY
   MODERATE MIXING LAYERS WILL RESULT IN MIN RH LEVELS MAINLY IN THE 20
   PERCENT RANGE BY AFTERNOON. RH MAY REACH THE UPPER TEENS OVER WRN
   NEB...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG THERE.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 291931
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0231 PM CDT MON MAR 29 2010
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ INTO WRN OK...
   
   ONGOING FORECAST FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ACROSS SERN AZ INTO WRN OK
   IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS AREA.
   
   ...ERN CO...WRN KS INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH
   AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH SW WINDS AROUND 10
   TO 20 MPH. FURTHER N ACROSS ERN WY...WRN SD AND WRN NEB...WINDS MAY
   GUST TO 30 MPH WHERE DOWNSLOPE WILL ENHANCE SFC FLOW. WHILE SOME
   AREAS MAY SEE LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS...A SIGNIFICANT FIRE
   THREAT WILL LARGELY BE LIMITED BY WEAKER SFC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF
   A DEVELOPING LEE LOW OVER THE CO PLAINS. SOME AREAS MAY STILL HAVE
   RELATIVELY MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS DUE TO RECENT RAIN/SNOW AND/OR
   SNOW MELT AS WELL...FURTHER LIMITING CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY...
   WHILE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ACROSS THE REGION...RH VALUES WILL ONLY
   FALL INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE. DESPITE ONGOING DROUGHT THE
   OVERALL FIRE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 03/29/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0322 AM CDT MON MAR 29 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY AS AN
   UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS. WITH A
   VERY DRY AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE...THIS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM SERN AZ INTO WRN TX/OK. TO THE E...HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY SWD TO THE
   GULF COAST WITH LOW RH WIDESPREAD
   
   ...SERN AZ INTO WRN OK...
   WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
   DEVELOPS EWD. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
   THE ENTIRE CRITICAL AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO ANTICIPATED ARE
   EXTREME RH VALUES AS LOW AS 3-5 PERCENT FROM SERN AZ ACROSS SRN NM
   AND INTO WRN TX. VALUES AS LOW AS THE TEENS ARE LIKELY INTO WRN OK.
   VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS
   ARE ALSO EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S...EXCEPT FOR 90S
   OVER FAR SE NM AND SW TX. GIVEN SUCH LOW RH VALUES...FINER FUELS
   WILL BE EXTREMELY VOLATILE.
   
   ...UPPER MS VALLEY...
   STRONG SLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED TUE
   AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO THE W. WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
   60S TO LOWER 70S...RH WILL DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. AREAS
   SUCH AS NRN WI AND MN HAVE BEEN IN DROUGHT THUS THERE MAY BE A
   MARGINAL FIRE THREAT TUE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...LA/MS/AL/GA/FL...
   A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SERN STATES ON TUE
   DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE. WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...MIN RH OF 25-30
   PERCENT IS ANTICIPATED OVER A LARGE AREA. WINDS WILL BE CALM ACROSS
   MS AND AL...BUT WLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF FL.
   GIVEN RECENT RAINS...ONLY A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT IS EXPECTED.
   
   ...SRN NV...NRN AZ...SRN UT...
   LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN BENEATH A
   STRONG UPPER TROUGH. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY
   WITH GUSTS OVER 50-60 MPH. EVEN THOUGH RH WILL DROP INTO THE
   TEENS...FUEL CONDITIONS LARGELY REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
   WILDFIRES.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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