Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 301630
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010
VALID 301700Z - 311200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NM...W TX...WRN OK...WRN KS INTO
SE CO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MN AND WI...
...NM...W TX...WRN OK...WRN KS INTO SE CO...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA. EXTENDED THE AREA
FURTHER N AND W INTO WRN KS AND SE CO. BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS
FROM DDC...LBF AND DNR PORTIONS OF WRN KS AND FAR ERN CO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN OVER FORECASTING MIN RH VALUES IN THIS
AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS. OBS RH/S HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AT TIMES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. 16Z OBS ALREADY SHOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH
RH VALUES IN THE 11 TO 18 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
25 MPH. FURTHERMORE...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL WFO/S...A FEW
WILDFIRES ARE ALREADY BURNING IN THIS AREA AND CONDITIONS TODAY
COULD LEAD TO FIRE SPREAD OR NEW FIRE STARTS.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A LARGE AREA OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW RH/S AND WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE
SWRN CONUS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS NWWD TO MN/WI.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 03/30/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0239 AM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS A
BROAD BUT STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE WRN CONUS. STRONG
WINDS AND VERY LOW RH WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AS WELL AS MUCH OF NM. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND SERN STATES WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WINDS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS WELL WHERE DROUGHT PERSISTS. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN MILD AND DRY WEATHER FOR
ALL OF THE SERN STATES AS WELL.
...NM...W TX...WRN OK...SW KS...
AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS TODAY...AS WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE...WITH HIGHER SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH OVER NRN NM AS WELL AS
WRN OK AND N CNTRL TX. THE LOWEST RH WILL BE OVER NM AND W TX...WITH
SINGLE DIGITS. A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH
VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DEEP MIXING LAYERS. GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH POOR RH
RECOVERY ACROSS NM AND W TX.
...MN AND WI...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED SLY WINDS OF
25-30 MPH OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TODAY.
GIVEN DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S F AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...MIN RH SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH LOCALLY LOWER VALUES. DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST IN
THIS REGION...AND ANY FIRES THAT START COULD BECOME UNCONTROLLABLE
GIVEN THE WIND SPEEDS.
...ERN CO INTO ERN WY...WRN SD/NEB...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FROM SRN SD INTO ERN CO THIS
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EWD INTO THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 60S OVER ERN WY TO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S OVER CNTRL SD AND NEB. MIN RH IN THE TEENS IS
EXPECTED WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
SAME AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...ALTHOUGH HIGHER
GUSTS MAY OCCUR. MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER WY WHERE IT
WILL BE RELATIVELY COOLER AND MORE MOIST...WITH SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH
LIKELY.
FARTHER S INTO CO...SUSTAINED SWLY WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL
LEVELS AT TIMES...WITH MIN RH IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...RECENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FIRE THREAT.
...SERN STATES...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AS AN UPPER
LOW EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH FULL SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...THIS WILL YIELD
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY FROM 25-35 PERCENT. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED OVER MOST OF THE SE EXCEPT FOR THE CNTRL
AND SRN FL PENINSULA. THUS...SEVERAL HOURS OF LOW RH MAY RESULT IN A
MARGINAL FIRE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10 MPH.
...GREAT BASIN INTO SERN AZ...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER ERN NV INTO NRN UT LATER TODAY...AS A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH AFFECTS THE REGION. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF
30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS OVER 50-60 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ON THE COOL SIDE THOUGH...AND AS A RESULT...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP. IN ADDITION...FUEL CONDITIONS
REMAIN LARGELY SUB-CRITICAL AT THIS TIME.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 301913
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ INTO WRN OK...SW KS AND SE
CO...
...SE CO AND SW KS...
RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 PERCENT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WHILE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY ONLY
REACH 15 MPH...GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. WITH SOME
ONGOING WILDFIRES REPORTED IN THIS AREA WILL EXTEND THE CRITICAL
RISK NWD.
...BIG BEND AREA OF SW TX...
ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT FROM JUST S
OF MRF TO DRT...LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL HELP LIMIT THE
OVERALL FIRE THREAT.
OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 03/30/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0257 AM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WED
AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
ERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS SPREADING NEWD
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CRITICAL COMBINATION
OF HIGH WINDS AND LOW RH WILL EXIST FROM SERN AZ INTO WRN OK...WITH
LESSER FIRE CONCERNS OVER THE SERN STATES DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
...SERN AZ INTO W TX...
AN UPPER JET CORE WILL SPREAD OVER AZ AND NM ON WED RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARM TEMPERATURES AND
MIXING WILL ALSO BRING STRONG GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AREA-WIDE.
SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH MUCH STRONGER
GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40-50 MPH OVER SERN AZ INTO CNTRL NM. MIN RH IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS WILL BE THE RULE. THE LOWEST
VALUES WILL BE OVER SERN NM AND SWRN TX...AS LOW AS 3 PERCENT. FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH EXTREME LEVELS LOCALLY...DEPENDING
ON FUEL CONDITIONS.
...WRN OK...SW KS...
ALTHOUGH RH LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AVERAGING 10-20 PERCENT...IT WILL
BE VERY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S.
SUSTAINED SLY WINDS OF 25-30 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK.
...SERN STATES...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 75-80. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN WITH RH DIPPING INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. MIXING LAYERS
WILL EXTEND TO AROUND 850 MB WITH GENERALLY WEAK WINDS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...