Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 301630
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010
   
   VALID 301700Z - 311200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NM...W TX...WRN OK...WRN KS INTO
   SE CO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MN AND WI...
   
   ...NM...W TX...WRN OK...WRN KS INTO SE CO...
   ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA. EXTENDED THE AREA
   FURTHER N AND W INTO WRN KS AND SE CO. BASED ON MODIFIED 12Z RAOBS
   FROM DDC...LBF AND DNR PORTIONS OF WRN KS AND FAR ERN CO HAVE THE
   POTENTIAL TO SEE RH VALUES FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON.
   FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN OVER FORECASTING MIN RH VALUES IN THIS
   AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS. OBS RH/S HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
   AT TIMES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH
   TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S AND SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH
   WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. 16Z OBS ALREADY SHOWED SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH
   RH VALUES IN THE 11 TO 18 PERCENT RANGE AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
   25 MPH. FURTHERMORE...AFTER COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL WFO/S...A FEW
   WILDFIRES ARE ALREADY BURNING IN THIS AREA AND CONDITIONS TODAY
   COULD LEAD TO FIRE SPREAD OR NEW FIRE STARTS.
   
   OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A LARGE AREA OF
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW RH/S AND WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE
   SWRN CONUS INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS NWWD TO MN/WI.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 03/30/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0239 AM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS A
   BROAD BUT STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE WRN CONUS. STRONG
   WINDS AND VERY LOW RH WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS AS WELL AS MUCH OF NM. A
   TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
   OVER THE OH VALLEY AND SERN STATES WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH WINDS INTO
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS WELL WHERE DROUGHT PERSISTS. THE
   AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN MILD AND DRY WEATHER FOR
   ALL OF THE SERN STATES AS WELL.
   
   ...NM...W TX...WRN OK...SW KS...
   AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN
   ROCKIES AND PLAINS TODAY...AS WINDS INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING
   TROUGH. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF AT LEAST 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED
   AREA-WIDE...WITH HIGHER SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH OVER NRN NM AS WELL AS
   WRN OK AND N CNTRL TX. THE LOWEST RH WILL BE OVER NM AND W TX...WITH
   SINGLE DIGITS. A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT WITH
   VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DEEP MIXING LAYERS. GUSTY
   WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS WELL...WITH POOR RH
   RECOVERY ACROSS NM AND W TX.
   
   ...MN AND WI...
   A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED SLY WINDS OF
   25-30 MPH OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TODAY.
   GIVEN DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S F AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
   UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...MIN RH SHOULD DIP INTO THE 30 PERCENT
   RANGE...WITH LOCALLY LOWER VALUES. DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST IN
   THIS REGION...AND ANY FIRES THAT START COULD BECOME UNCONTROLLABLE
   GIVEN THE WIND SPEEDS.
   
   ...ERN CO INTO ERN WY...WRN SD/NEB...
   A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FROM SRN SD INTO ERN CO THIS
   AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH SPREADS EWD INTO THE PLAINS.
   TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 60S OVER ERN WY TO THE
   MID TO UPPER 70S OVER CNTRL SD AND NEB. MIN RH IN THE TEENS IS
   EXPECTED WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST...BUT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
   SAME AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH...ALTHOUGH HIGHER
   GUSTS MAY OCCUR.  MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER WY WHERE IT
   WILL BE RELATIVELY COOLER AND MORE MOIST...WITH SPEEDS OF 30-40 MPH
   LIKELY.
   
   FARTHER S INTO CO...SUSTAINED SWLY WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH CRITICAL
   LEVELS AT TIMES...WITH MIN RH IN THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE AS WELL.
   HOWEVER...RECENT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MITIGATE ANY FIRE THREAT.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AS AN UPPER
   LOW EXITS THE MID ATLANTIC. WITH FULL SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES
   IN THE 70S ARE LIKELY. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S...THIS WILL YIELD
   MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY FROM 25-35 PERCENT. BELOW NORMAL
   PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED OVER MOST OF THE SE EXCEPT FOR THE CNTRL
   AND SRN FL PENINSULA. THUS...SEVERAL HOURS OF LOW RH MAY RESULT IN A
   MARGINAL FIRE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE SUSTAINED WINDS AT OR
   BELOW 10 MPH.
   
   ...GREAT BASIN INTO SERN AZ...
   LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER ERN NV INTO NRN UT LATER TODAY...AS A
   POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH AFFECTS THE REGION. SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF
   30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH GUSTS OVER 50-60 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
   ON THE COOL SIDE THOUGH...AND AS A RESULT...LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP. IN ADDITION...FUEL CONDITIONS
   REMAIN LARGELY SUB-CRITICAL AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 301913
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 PM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ INTO WRN OK...SW KS AND SE
   CO...
   
   ...SE CO AND SW KS...
   RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 14 PERCENT WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RANGING
   FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. WHILE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY ONLY
   REACH 15 MPH...GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES. WITH SOME
   ONGOING WILDFIRES REPORTED IN THIS AREA WILL EXTEND THE CRITICAL
   RISK NWD. 
   
   ...BIG BEND AREA OF SW TX...
   ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 15 PERCENT FROM JUST S
   OF MRF TO DRT...LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WILL HELP LIMIT THE
   OVERALL FIRE THREAT.
   
   OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER CHANGES
   WERE NEEDED.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 03/30/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0257 AM CDT TUE MAR 30 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WED
   AFTERNOON WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE
   ERN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS SPREADING NEWD
   OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A CRITICAL COMBINATION
   OF HIGH WINDS AND LOW RH WILL EXIST FROM SERN AZ INTO WRN OK...WITH
   LESSER FIRE CONCERNS OVER THE SERN STATES DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
   
   ...SERN AZ INTO W TX...
   AN UPPER JET CORE WILL SPREAD OVER AZ AND NM ON WED RESULTING IN
   VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARM TEMPERATURES AND
   MIXING WILL ALSO BRING STRONG GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AREA-WIDE.
   SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH MUCH STRONGER
   GUSTS OF AT LEAST 40-50 MPH OVER SERN AZ INTO CNTRL NM. MIN RH IN
   THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS WILL BE THE RULE. THE LOWEST
   VALUES WILL BE OVER SERN NM AND SWRN TX...AS LOW AS 3 PERCENT. FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH EXTREME LEVELS LOCALLY...DEPENDING
   ON FUEL CONDITIONS.
   
   ...WRN OK...SW KS...
   ALTHOUGH RH LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AVERAGING 10-20 PERCENT...IT WILL
   BE VERY WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S.
   SUSTAINED SLY WINDS OF 25-30 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH HIGHER
   GUSTS. RELATIVELY LITTLE PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN OVER THE PAST
   SEVERAL WEEKS ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK.
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT THE SURFACE WITH MODERATING
   TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS AROUND 75-80. A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
   REMAIN WITH RH DIPPING INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. MIXING LAYERS
   WILL EXTEND TO AROUND 850 MB WITH GENERALLY WEAK WINDS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home