Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 311618
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1118 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2010
   
   VALID 311700Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE AZ...MUCH OF NM...WTX...WRN
   OK...FAR SE CO AND SW KS...
   
   ...SE AZ...MUCH OF NM...W TX...WRN OK...FAR SE CO AND SW KS...
   16Z SFC OBS SHOWED RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE
   BEHIND A DRYLINE LOCATED FROM NEAR GAG IN NW OK TO FST AND MRF IN SW
   TX. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO WRN OK AND
   W CNTRL TX. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S OVER SE
   CO/SW KS TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FURTHER S. GUSTY WLY WINDS
   BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT
   AND RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
   CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...ERN GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES...
   A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL
   CONUS. LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE THREAT ACROSS THE
   GULF COAST BUT A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
   NRN MN AND WI WHERE SWLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH TODAY.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 03/31/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL STRETCH FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
   ACROSS SRN CA NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
   FROM AL INTO MI. VERY WARM AND DRY AIR WILL SPREAD NWD OUT OF THE
   SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH GUSTY SWLY WINDS. VERY LOW
   HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS FROM SERN AZ INTO WRN OK. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK COLD FRONT
   WILL MOVE THROUGH ND/MN/WI LATER TODAY WITH COOLER BUT DRY
   CONDITIONS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE
   SERN STATES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
   
   ...SE AZ...MUCH OF NM...W TX...WRN OK...FAR SE CO AND SW KS...
   STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS FIELDS
   ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN
   SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF AT LEAST 20-30 MPH FROM SERN AZ ACROSS NM
   AND INTO WRN OK. LIGHTER SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER SWRN
   KS/SERN CO AS WELL AS THE BIG BEND AREA OF SW TX WHERE THE PRESSURE
   GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER. STILL...VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
   PREVAIL AREA-WIDE...WITH MIN RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
   TEENS. THE LOWEST RH WILL OCCUR OVER SERN NM AND SW TX WHERE
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S AND RH OF 3-5 PERCENT. 
   
   ...SERN STATES...
   LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE IS LIKELY AS HIGHS
   REACH THE UPPER 70S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE
   WEAK. LOW KBDI VALUES AS WELL AS THE WEAK WINDS WILL TOGETHER
   MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE SPREAD.
   
   ...ERN ND INTO NRN MN AND NRN WI...
   AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL GLANCE THE AREA...AND HELP TO
   BRING HIGH PRESSURE EWD BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WLY
   AT 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS NRN MN BY LATE MORNING.
   TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER ND TO THE 60S NRN MN AND
   70S INTO NRN WI. RH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
   ACROSS NERN MN INTO NRN WI AT PEAK HEATING FOR A MARGINAL FIRE
   THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 311924
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 PM CDT WED MAR 31 2010
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SE NM...SW TX INTO
   THE TX PANHANDLE...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN AND ERN NM...W TX INTO SRN
   NEB...
   
   ...FAR SE NM...SW TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE...
   EXTENDED THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX
   PANHANDLE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL MIXED LAYER AROUND
   8 TO 9 KFT AS FAR N AS DHT. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
   LOW 80S EXPECTED...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 7 TO 10 PERCENT
   WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
   VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGERS MAKE EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   LIKELY.
   
   ...SRN AND ERN NM...W TX INTO SRN NEB...
   TRIMMED THE ERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA BACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO
   THE W. ALL OF THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG SLY TO
   SELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL CARRY MOISTURE
   FURTHER N AND W FROM CNTRL KS TO N CNTRL TX AND PREVENT THE DRYLINE
   FROM MIXING AS FAR EWD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS
   OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS CONVERGENT AREA MAY PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT WOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THE
   FIRE THREAT WITH HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING EWD.
   
   ..STOPPKOTTE.. 03/31/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0339 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE WRN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION ON THU...CAUSING A VERY STRONG AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
   TO DEVELOP FROM ERN CO INTO ERN NM/W TX. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL
   OCCUR FROM NM INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...ALONG WITH VERY WARM
   AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE MOST POTENT COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS...LOW
   HUMIDITY AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER SERN NM AND WRN TX.
   
   ELSEWHERE...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SERN STATES
   WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE.
   
   ...SRN AND ERN NM...MUCH OF WRN AND NWRN TX...WRN OK...ERN CO...WRN
   KS AND SRN NEB...
   
   VERY WARM AND DRY AIR WILL STREAM NWD THU AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   PLAINS AS A SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOP WITH AN APPROACHING
   UPPER TROUGH. BY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE CO
   FRONT RANGE SWD INTO E CNTRL NM. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SUSTAINED
   SWLY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30-40 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ACROSS
   THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA. MIN RH WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
   ACROSS SERN NM AND SW TX...WITH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. 
   
   ...SERN U.S....
   IT WILL BE WARM ON THU WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGH
   TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 80S REGION-WIDE WITH FULL SUNSHINE. MIN
   RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AS WELL.
   DESPITE VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER...KBDI READINGS REMAIN LOW AND
   WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LIMITING WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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