Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 311618
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2010
VALID 311700Z - 011200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SE AZ...MUCH OF NM...WTX...WRN
OK...FAR SE CO AND SW KS...
...SE AZ...MUCH OF NM...W TX...WRN OK...FAR SE CO AND SW KS...
16Z SFC OBS SHOWED RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 8 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE
BEHIND A DRYLINE LOCATED FROM NEAR GAG IN NW OK TO FST AND MRF IN SW
TX. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MIX EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO WRN OK AND
W CNTRL TX. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S OVER SE
CO/SW KS TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FURTHER S. GUSTY WLY WINDS
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WILL BE COMMON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT
AND RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 5 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE
CRITICAL AREA.
...ERN GULF COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES...
A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL
CONUS. LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE THE OVERALL FIRE THREAT ACROSS THE
GULF COAST BUT A MARGINAL FIRE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF
NRN MN AND WI WHERE SWLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 MPH TODAY.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 03/31/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A SWLY FLOW REGIME WILL STRETCH FROM THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS SRN CA NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES...WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
FROM AL INTO MI. VERY WARM AND DRY AIR WILL SPREAD NWD OUT OF THE
SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH GUSTY SWLY WINDS. VERY LOW
HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM SERN AZ INTO WRN OK. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH ND/MN/WI LATER TODAY WITH COOLER BUT DRY
CONDITIONS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE
SERN STATES WITH LIGHT WINDS.
...SE AZ...MUCH OF NM...W TX...WRN OK...FAR SE CO AND SW KS...
STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS FIELDS
ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN
SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF AT LEAST 20-30 MPH FROM SERN AZ ACROSS NM
AND INTO WRN OK. LIGHTER SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER SWRN
KS/SERN CO AS WELL AS THE BIG BEND AREA OF SW TX WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER. STILL...VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE...WITH MIN RH IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS. THE LOWEST RH WILL OCCUR OVER SERN NM AND SW TX WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S AND RH OF 3-5 PERCENT.
...SERN STATES...
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE IS LIKELY AS HIGHS
REACH THE UPPER 70S. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE
WEAK. LOW KBDI VALUES AS WELL AS THE WEAK WINDS WILL TOGETHER
MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE SPREAD.
...ERN ND INTO NRN MN AND NRN WI...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL GLANCE THE AREA...AND HELP TO
BRING HIGH PRESSURE EWD BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WLY
AT 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ACROSS NRN MN BY LATE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE 50S OVER ND TO THE 60S NRN MN AND
70S INTO NRN WI. RH IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE
ACROSS NERN MN INTO NRN WI AT PEAK HEATING FOR A MARGINAL FIRE
THREAT.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 311924
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 PM CDT WED MAR 31 2010
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SE NM...SW TX INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN AND ERN NM...W TX INTO SRN
NEB...
...FAR SE NM...SW TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE...
EXTENDED THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA INTO PORTIONS OF THE TX
PANHANDLE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WELL MIXED LAYER AROUND
8 TO 9 KFT AS FAR N AS DHT. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S EXPECTED...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO AROUND 7 TO 10 PERCENT
WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGERS MAKE EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
LIKELY.
...SRN AND ERN NM...W TX INTO SRN NEB...
TRIMMED THE ERN EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA BACK A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE W. ALL OF THE LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG SLY TO
SELY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT WILL CARRY MOISTURE
FURTHER N AND W FROM CNTRL KS TO N CNTRL TX AND PREVENT THE DRYLINE
FROM MIXING AS FAR EWD AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS CONVERGENT AREA MAY PRODUCE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THAT WOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THE
FIRE THREAT WITH HEAVY RAIN SHIFTING EWD.
..STOPPKOTTE.. 03/31/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0339 AM CDT WED MAR 31 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
THE WRN TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON THU...CAUSING A VERY STRONG AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
TO DEVELOP FROM ERN CO INTO ERN NM/W TX. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL
OCCUR FROM NM INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...ALONG WITH VERY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE MOST POTENT COMBINATION OF HIGH WINDS...LOW
HUMIDITY AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER SERN NM AND WRN TX.
ELSEWHERE...WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SERN STATES
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE.
...SRN AND ERN NM...MUCH OF WRN AND NWRN TX...WRN OK...ERN CO...WRN
KS AND SRN NEB...
VERY WARM AND DRY AIR WILL STREAM NWD THU AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS A SURFACE LOW AND LEE TROUGH DEVELOP WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. BY AFTERNOON...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE CO
FRONT RANGE SWD INTO E CNTRL NM. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SUSTAINED
SWLY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30-40 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ACROSS
THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA. MIN RH WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS SERN NM AND SW TX...WITH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT ELSEWHERE.
...SERN U.S....
IT WILL BE WARM ON THU WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 80S REGION-WIDE WITH FULL SUNSHINE. MIN
RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AS WELL.
DESPITE VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER...KBDI READINGS REMAIN LOW AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...LIMITING WILDFIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...