Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 061637
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 AM CDT TUE APR 06 2010
   
   VALID 061700Z - 071200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN HIGH PLAINS / SW KS / ERN HALF
   OF NM / FAR W TX...
   
   MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS CONFIRMS A SHARPENING DRYLINE BEGINNING TO
   MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK INTO SRN KS THIS
   MORNING.  VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES TODAY OVER THE PLAINS
   CRITICAL AREA...LEADING TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEPENING LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS WILL PROMOTE DOWNWARD MIXING OF HIGHER
   MOMENTUM FLOW /30 KTS 0-1 KM AGL MEAN FLOW PER 1630Z TX PANHANDLE
   AND SOUTH PLAINS VWP DATA/ TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF STRONG WIND
   GUSTS.  NO APPRECIABLE LARGE CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...AND PREVIOUS
   FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/06/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0339 AM CDT TUE APR 06 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE CONUS AS AN UPPER
   TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
   BUILDS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. A SURFACE LOW WILL MIGRATE TOWARDS
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT
   AND DRYLINE EXTENDING INTO THE SRN PLAINS. STRONG WINDS AND DRY
   CONDITIONS WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS W OF THE DRYLINE...AND INTO NM.
   MEANWHILE..SWLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH RIVER
   VALLEY AND INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS.
   
   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS...SW KS...ERN HALF OF NM...FAR W TX...
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
   THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT UPPER JET APPROACHES
   FROM THE W. ELONGATED SFC TROUGH/FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
   IA/ERN KS...WITH A TRAILING DRYLINE EXTENDING S INTO CNTRL KS AND
   WRN OK. AN UNSTABLE AND WELL-MIXED BL IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE
   W OF THE DRYLINE. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
   INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
   
   WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS THE SFC
   CYCLONE/TROUGH MIGRATES EWD...WITH A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT
   ENHANCING WARMING/DRYING AT THE SFC...DESPITE A COOLER VERTICAL
   TEMPERATURE PROFILE. MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL DEVELOP
   IN THE LATE MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NE NM AND THE WRN TX/OK
   PANHANDLES MAY SEE GUSTS APPROACH 50 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   A SFC COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
   OUT OF THE NW.
   
   ...ERN KY INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...
   LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN A
   TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND A BROAD SFC ANTICYCLONE OFF THE ATLANTIC
   COAST. SUSTAINED SW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH/GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE FORECAST
   TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING. IN ADDITION...A POCKET OF DRY AIR /IN
   THE 900-700 MB LAYER/ ROTATING NWD AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE
   INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ARE
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE EXPECTED MARGINAL NATURE OF WINDS/RH
   CONDITIONS...A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 061830
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CDT TUE APR 06 2010
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   AFTER COORDINATION WITH A LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE FOR EXPECTED
   OFFSHORE WINDS FOR SRN CA AT THE START OF D2 AND NOTING THAT FUELS
   ARE LIMITED COMPARED TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
   YEAR...HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE THE SEE TEXT CATEGORIZATION.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/06/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0340 AM CDT TUE APR 06 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL CONUS...WHILE
   AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST. AT THE SFC...AN AREA
   OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...LEADING
   TO INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS SRN CA. A COLD FRONT WILL
   PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION.
   
   ...SRN CA...
   SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NEAR THE UT/WY BORDER
   WEDNESDAY...CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR OFFSHORE/NE WINDS
   ACROSS SRN CA. AS A RESULT...WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE
   EXPECTED...WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 10-20 PERCENT IN
   LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
   TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE IN LOCAL
   CANYONS. LITTLE RECOVERY IN RH CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
   THURSDAY MORNING.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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