Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 101634
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
   
   VALID 101700Z - 111200Z
   
   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM...FAR WRN TX AND
   THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ...CNTRL AND SRN NM...WRN
   TX...FAR SERN CO/SWRN KS...
   
   ...SOUTHWEST TO CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST WELL ON-TRACK...WITH ONLY A MINOR CHANGE TO ADD A
   BIT MORE OF CNTRL/ERN NM INTO THE CRITICAL/EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREAS.
   16Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM W/SWLY WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 65 MPH
   ACROSS CNTRL/ERN NM WITH RH VALUES OF 8 TO 15 PERCENT. CONTINUED
   WARMING/DRYING THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND AN EXPANSION OF
   VERY STRONG WINDS INTO WRN TX WILL RESULT IN EXTREMELY CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN NM...FAR WRN TX AND THE
   TX/OK PANHANDLES.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC INTO DE/NJ...ERN PA/NY AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...
   NO CHANGES NEEDED.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/10/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0211 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT UPPER TROUGH OBSERVED ON WV IMAGERY NEAR THE NV/AZ/UT
   BORDERS AS OF 0700Z WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS EWD...REACHING THE FOUR
   CORNERS REGION AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN MOVING
   INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL SET UP BEHIND A DRYLINE...WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS.
   
   MEANWHILE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE
   NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND AS AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERS OFFSHORE.
   
   ...ERN NM/WRN TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE...
   LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING IN
   RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE JET CORE WILL BE
   OVERHEAD AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH AS TEMPERATURES
   BEGIN TO WARM WILL QUICKLY ALLOW WINDS TO STRENGTHEN...REACHING
   SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH BY LATE MORNING. STRONGEST WIND
   SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...WHERE SPEEDS OF
   30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
   TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES AND DEEP MIXING
   OCCURS. SWLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SHIFT TO WLY
   THEREAFTER...AND ALTHOUGH GUSTS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE JET
   CORE PROGRESSES EWD...THEY WILL STILL REMAIN STRONG. TEMPERATURES IN
   THE MID TO UPPER 80S CAN BE ANTICIPATED IN THE PANHANDLE...WHILE
   FARTHER S 90S TO NEAR 104 CAN BE EXPECTED. LOWER SINGLE DIGIT
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE COMMON.
   
   ...SERN AZ/ERN AND SRN NM/WRN TX/OK PANHANDLE/SERN CO/SWRN KS...
   SUSTAINED WLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON TO THE W OF THE
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL...WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM INTO THE
   80S. TO THE EAST OF THE EXTREME...SWLY WINDS NEAR 20 TO 30 MPH WILL
   ALIGN WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
   UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S...THOUGH GREEN UP CONDITIONS MAY SOMEWHAT
   TEMPER THE THREAT COMPARED TO THE EXTREMELY CRITICAL AREA.
   HOWEVER...METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
   SPREAD. TO THE NORTH OF THE EXTREME...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
   THE LOWER 80S...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS.
   SIMILAR TO AREAS EAST OF THE EXTREME...GREEN UP CONDITIONS MAY ACT
   TO TEMPER THE THREAT...THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS TO NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH
   WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT IN AREAS WHERE CURED FUELS EXIST.
   
   ...MID ATLANTIC INTO DE/NJ...ERN PA/NY AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND...
   DRY CONTINENTAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LOW RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES BY AFTERNOON. IN THE MID ATLANTIC...LIGHT WINDS FROM THE
   SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THE THREAT...THOUGH RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 20S WILL BE COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER
   N...WINDS NEAR 15 MPH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH
   COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...RECENT RAINFALL...AND
   GREEN UP CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE UNFAVORABLE FOR FIRE SPREAD.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 101837
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NM...PORTIONS OF WRN
   TX/ERN AZ...
   
   ...MUCH OF NM...PORTIONS OF WRN TX/ERN AZ...
   A WIDESPREAD HIGHER-END CRITICAL THREAT IS LIKELY TUE AFTERNOON
   DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EWD AND DEAMPLIFYING
   ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY LIES OVER DURATION
   AND MAGNITUDE OF POTENTIAL EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH
   STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THE
   DAY...12Z ECMWF/GFS INDICATE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM 11/12Z TO 12/00Z THAN THE 12Z NAM. THIS WOULD
   AFFECT ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE STRONGEST KINEMATIC FIELDS. IN
   ADDITION...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
   INTENSE/WIDESPREAD AS ON D1/MON. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PEAK FROM 25 TO 35 MPH DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES...AT LEAST LOCALIZED
   EXTREMELY CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER CNTRL/ERN NM...BUT
   WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR A POTENTIAL UPGRADE.
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   NO CHANGES NEEDED.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/10/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0316 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH /NOTED ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING OFFSHORE OF
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST / WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE
   GREAT BASIN...THEN EWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG JET
   WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE FAVORABLY ORIENTED OVER
   THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES TO ONCE AGAIN INFLUENCE CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS. 
   
   MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN AND
   MOVE EWD INTO ERN QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL
   PERSIST OVER NEW ENGLAND.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF AZ/NM AND WRN TX...
   THE STRONGEST LOW/MID LEVEL JET WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM SERN AZ NEWD
   INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE A SURFACE LOW
   DEEPENS NEAR THE SERN CO/NERN NM BORDER. ONCE AGAIN...STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR
   DEEP MIXING...WITH SUSTAINED SWLY WIND SPEEDS NEAR 30 TO 40 MPH AND
   STRONGER GUSTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GENERALLY WILL FALL INTO THE
   SINGLE DIGITS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A CORRIDOR FROM SERN NM INTO THE
   TX PANHANDLE COULD ONCE AGAIN EXPERIENCE EXTREMELY CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS...AND THIS AREA MAY BE UPGRADED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   DRY LOW LEVELS WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...LEADING
   TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S BY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COOL
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY
   TEMPER THE THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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