Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 231630
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010
   
   VALID 231700Z - 241200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...PORTIONS OF
   SWRN CO...
   
   FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/23/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SWRN U.S. AND BRING COOL
   TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PAC NW. STRONG WINDS
   WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF THIS FEATURE
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AZ AND NM. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN
   POSITIONED OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE NATION...RESULTING IN A
   WARM/HUMID AIR MASS AND LIGHT WINDS.
   
   ...ERN AZ...MUCH OF NM...PORTIONS OF SWRN CO...
   MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SHARP UPPER TROUGH INTO
   THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...STRONG SFC
   WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SWRN STATES AS DEEP-LAYER SWLY
   FLOW INCREASES. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS
   HIGH AS 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CO PLATEAU
   AND INTO NM. 
   
   AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...RAPID THICKNESS FALLS/COLD-AIR ADVECTION
   WILL OCCUR...KEEPING THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONFINED TO ERN
   AZ AND NM. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID-TEENS
   ACROSS MUCH OF ERN AZ AND NRN NM...DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES.
   FARTHER S AND E ACROSS THE CHIHUAHUAN DESERT...RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...AND INTO THE ERN PLAINS OF NM...STRONGER HEATING WILL OCCUR
   AND RESULT IN SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES. WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
   AS STRONG /SUSTAINED 20-25 MPH/ AS FARTHER N DUE TO RELATIVELY
   WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. THE ERN BOUNDARY OF THE RISK AREA WILL BE
   DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF A DRYLINE SETTING UP NEAR THE TX/NM
   BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...WRN/S CNTRL AZ...
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THE
   EARLY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF AZ. HOWEVER...AS
   THICKNESS FALLS OCCUR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH...UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES
   ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS. DUE TO MARGINALLY LOW RH
   VALUES...A CRITICAL RISK AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 231723
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   UPGRADED THE COLORADO SAN LUIS VALLEY TO CRITICAL STATUS DUE TO
   FORECAST STRONG WINDS/LOW RH.  PER COORDINATION WITH A LOCAL
   FORECAST OFFICE...RECEPTIVE FUELS /PRE-GREENING/ INVOF OF THE NM/CO
   BORDER WILL PRESENT A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER HAZARD.  THIS WILL
   OCCUR AS A STRONG DISTURBANCE QUICKLY LIFTS OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES
   AND PROVIDES A SEVERAL HOUR WINDOW DURING THE AFTERNOON IN WHICH
   STRONG SWLY/S WILL OCCUR WITHIN A VERY DRY AIRMASS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/23/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0339 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE NEWD INTO
   THE CNTRL CONUS...WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN/CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE. A VERY HUMID AND WARM AIR MASS WILL EXIST E
   OF A NRN PLAINS SFC LOW AND DRY LINE EXTENDING INTO TX. LIGHT WINDS
   CAN BE EXPECTED E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
   BROAD UPPER RIDGE.
   
   ...NERN NM...ERN CO...
   SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   ASSOCIATED 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE S
   LATE MORNING WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH DEVELOPING
   ACROSS NERN NM. STRONGER WINDS WILL EXIST FARTHER N IN ERN CO AS
   WAVE PASSAGE OCCURS NEARLY CONTEMPORANEOUS WITH AFTERNOON
   HEATING...RESULTING IN SUSTAINED SLY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH/GUSTS 40-50
   MPH. AS A SFC LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON...WINDS
   WILL VEER TOWARDS THE W. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE REMAINS POSITIONED TO THE E. PER RECENT
   COORDINATION WITH LOCAL OFFICES...FUEL CONDITIONS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE
   ACROSS ERN CO DUE TO RECENT GREENUP...WHILE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
   MARGINAL ACROSS NERN NM...PRECLUDING A RISK AREA FROM BEING ISSUED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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