Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 271746
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2010
VALID 271700Z - 281200Z
CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADER
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN AZ...FAR NWRN NM AND SWRN
CO...
MOST SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION TO THE PRIOR FORECAST IS TO INCLUDE
MORE OF SWRN COLORADO IN THE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHT DUE TO CRITICAL
CONDITIONS LIKELY BEING MET AND RECEPTIVE FUELS.
A SECOND MINOR MODIFICATION INVOLVES REMOVING THE SEE TEXT HIGHLIGHT
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICH. HERE...LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES
A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A
WEAKENING/DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED W TO E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE DRIEST AIR THIS MORNING IS LOCATED OVER E-CNTRL MN AND
NWRN WI...WHEREAS SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE/TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS LOCATED FURTHER E OVER MICH. THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO
REMOVE THE SEE TEXT HIGHLIGHT AS THE DRIEST AIR /POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY CRITICAL RH/ WILL BE LOCATED TO THE W OF NRN LOWER MICH.
..SMITH.. 05/27/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST
TODAY...WITH A BELT OF STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA/SRN CO PLATEAU TODAY...WHERE WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY...WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A SFC COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
...NERN AZ...FAR NWRN NM AND SWRN CO...
SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS OF 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN CO PLATEAU/FOUR CORNERS AREA AS A SFC
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKY MTN STATES. A BELT OF ENHANCED
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW/80 KTS AT 500 MB/ WILL REMAIN NEARLY FIXED OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. STRONG HEATING WITHIN A DEEPLY-MIXED/DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS. INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SRN PLAINS
SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF THE RISK AREA ACROSS NWRN NM...WHILE
A COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER CNTRL AZ WILL YIELD MORE MARGINAL RH
VALUES FARTHER W.
...ERN UT...SWRN WY...
A DEVELOPING SFC PRESSURE TROUGH BENEATH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW
WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH /GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH/
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 80S ON THE VALLEY FLOORS OF ERN UT AND 70S OVER SWRN
WY...AND WILL YIELD LOW MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS. PER RECENT COORDINATION WITH LOCAL FORECAST
OFFICES...FUEL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE UNFAVORABLE TO SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRES.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
STRONG HEATING OCCURRING WITHIN A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. N WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION
/SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH/ AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER NRN MN...AND A COLD FRONT/SFC LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
SWWD ACROSS SRN ON/UPSTATE NY. MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS/RH VALUES WILL
PRECLUDE A CRITICAL RISK AREA FROM BEING REQUIRED.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 271747
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2010
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADER
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NERN AZ / SWRN CO...
ONLY CHANGE TO PRIOR FORECAST IS TO INCLUDE PARTS OF SWRN COLORADO
IN THE CRITICAL AREA. HERE...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR
TO NERN AZ AND FUELS ARE RECEPTIVE TO FIRES.
..SMITH.. 05/27/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0354 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE NRN CA COAST WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO
AN OPEN WAVE AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER CO/WY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SSWLY
WINDS ACROSS THE CO PLATEAU...COMBINING WITH A WARM/DRY AIR MASS TO
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN AZ. HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS/MIDWEST BENEATH
AN UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
...NERN AZ...
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
STRONG PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. SFC PRESSURE FALLS
OVER CO/WY...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...WILL
RESULT IN SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH/GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE APPROXIMATELY 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THU/D1 WITH A SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD AND WEAK THICKNESS FALLS
OCCURRING...PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL YIELD RH VALUES
FALLING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS NM
SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
...ERN UT...
WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ERN
UT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET GRADUALLY MOVE
EWD. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF
20-25 MPH/GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP. RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS WITHIN A
HOT AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. PER RECENT COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES...FUEL CONDITIONS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE TO
SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES...SO A CRITICAL
RISK AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...