Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 271746
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2010
   
   VALID 271700Z - 281200Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADER
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN AZ...FAR NWRN NM AND SWRN
   CO...
   
   MOST SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION TO THE PRIOR FORECAST IS TO INCLUDE
   MORE OF SWRN COLORADO IN THE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHT DUE TO CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS LIKELY BEING MET AND RECEPTIVE FUELS.  
   A SECOND MINOR MODIFICATION INVOLVES REMOVING THE SEE TEXT HIGHLIGHT
   ACROSS NRN LOWER MICH.  HERE...LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES
   A SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A
   WEAKENING/DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED W TO E ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION.  THE DRIEST AIR THIS MORNING IS LOCATED OVER E-CNTRL MN AND
   NWRN WI...WHEREAS SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE/TIGHTER PRESSURE
   GRADIENT IS LOCATED FURTHER E OVER MICH.  THEREFORE...HAVE OPTED TO
   REMOVE THE SEE TEXT HIGHLIGHT AS THE DRIEST AIR /POTENTIAL FOR
   MARGINALLY CRITICAL RH/ WILL BE LOCATED TO THE W OF NRN LOWER MICH.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/27/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE NRN CA COAST
   TODAY...WITH A BELT OF STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW STRETCHING ACROSS THE
   GREAT BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
   AREA/SRN CO PLATEAU TODAY...WHERE WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST.
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY...WITH WARM
   TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. A SFC COLD
   FRONT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TODAY.
   
   ...NERN AZ...FAR NWRN NM AND SWRN CO...
   SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS OF 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN CO PLATEAU/FOUR CORNERS AREA AS A SFC
   TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKY MTN STATES. A BELT OF ENHANCED
   MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW/80 KTS AT 500 MB/ WILL REMAIN NEARLY FIXED OVER
   THE GREAT BASIN. STRONG HEATING WITHIN A DEEPLY-MIXED/DRY BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
   TO LOWER TEENS. INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SRN PLAINS
   SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF THE RISK AREA ACROSS NWRN NM...WHILE
   A COLD FRONT POSITIONED OVER CNTRL AZ WILL YIELD MORE MARGINAL RH
   VALUES FARTHER W.
   
   ...ERN UT...SWRN WY...
   A DEVELOPING SFC PRESSURE TROUGH BENEATH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW
   WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20 MPH /GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH/
   THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WARMING
   INTO THE 80S ON THE VALLEY FLOORS OF ERN UT AND 70S OVER SWRN
   WY...AND WILL YIELD LOW MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
   LOWER TEENS. PER RECENT COORDINATION WITH LOCAL FORECAST
   OFFICES...FUEL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE UNFAVORABLE TO SUPPORT A
   WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRES.
   
   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
   STRONG HEATING OCCURRING WITHIN A DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
   YIELD MAX TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. N WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION
   /SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH/ AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
   POSITIONED OVER NRN MN...AND A COLD FRONT/SFC LOW PRESSURE PUSHES
   SWWD ACROSS SRN ON/UPSTATE NY. MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS/RH VALUES WILL
   PRECLUDE A CRITICAL RISK AREA FROM BEING REQUIRED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 271747
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 PM CDT THU MAY 27 2010
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL HEADER
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NERN AZ / SWRN CO...
   
   ONLY CHANGE TO PRIOR FORECAST IS TO INCLUDE PARTS OF SWRN COLORADO
   IN THE CRITICAL AREA.  HERE...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR
   TO NERN AZ AND FUELS ARE RECEPTIVE TO FIRES.
   
   ..SMITH.. 05/27/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0354 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE NRN CA COAST WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO
   AN OPEN WAVE AND SHIFT EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. STRONG MID/UPPER
   LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
   WEST. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER CO/WY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SSWLY
   WINDS ACROSS THE CO PLATEAU...COMBINING WITH A WARM/DRY AIR MASS TO
   PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NERN AZ. HOT
   TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS/MIDWEST BENEATH
   AN UPPER RIDGE. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH SWWD INTO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
   
   ...NERN AZ...
   ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED AS THE
   STRONG PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EWD. SFC PRESSURE FALLS
   OVER CO/WY...COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...WILL
   RESULT IN SUSTAINED SSWLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH/GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
   ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE APPROXIMATELY 1-3 DEGREES COOLER THAN
   THU/D1 WITH A SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD AND WEAK THICKNESS FALLS
   OCCURRING...PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL YIELD RH VALUES
   FALLING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS NM
   SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD EXTENT OF THE CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...ERN UT...
   WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS ERN
   UT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET GRADUALLY MOVE
   EWD. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF
   20-25 MPH/GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP. RH VALUES ARE
   FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS WITHIN A
   HOT AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. PER RECENT COORDINATION WITH
   LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES...FUEL CONDITIONS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE TO
   SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR WIND-DRIVEN FIRES...SO A CRITICAL
   RISK AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home