Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 281633
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010
   
   VALID 281700Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN AZ...FAR SWRN CO...FAR NWRN
   NM...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MORNING UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A TROUGH
   POSITIONED OVER THE WRN CONUS...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING ACROSS SRN CA AND INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN. A BELT OF
   MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW RESIDES ALONG THE ERN SIDE OF THE
   WRN CONUS TROUGH...AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE DAY ACROSS
   AZ/WRN NM N-NEWD INTO WY. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED
   OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDED NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   REGION. DIRECTLY BENEATH THIS UPPER FEATURE...A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET
   WAS VEERING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
   NRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT
   WAS LOCATED OVER NRN UT AND EXTENDED NEWD ACROSS WY AND INTO ND.
   SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THIS FRONT
   OVER WY BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS UT
   AND AZ. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SWD OUT OF THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE DAY.
   
   ...NERN AZ...FAR SWRN CO...FAR NWRN NM...
   A BELT OF 40-50 KT 700-500 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED
   ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER IMPULSE
   ROTATES NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE...STRONG SURFACE
   HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
   AIRMASS PER MODIFIED 12Z FGZ/ABQ/GJT RAOBS AND MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS...WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS /VALUES
   ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TEENS AT 15Z OVER NERN AZ PER SURFACE
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP
   LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /WHICH WILL AID IN MIXING STRONGER MOMENTUM TO
   THE SURFACE/...AS WELL AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER WY...WILL
   RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH. AS PREVIOUSLY
   MENTIONED IN THE INITIAL DAY 1 OUTLOOK...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF ERN UT INTO
   SRN-CENTRAL WY...BUT AN OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ASSIGNED DUE TO
   MARGINAL FUELS.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF WRN NM...
   MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER DEPICT A PLUME
   OF MOISTURE RESIDING OVER CENTRAL NM. MODIFIED 12Z ABQ RAOB FOR
   EXPECTED AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SUPPORTS WEAK CAPE VALUES ABOVE A WELL
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH BASED
   THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER WRN PORTIONS OF NM WHERE PWAT
   VALUES WILL BE LOWER. THIS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT BASIN UPPER
   IMPULSE GLANCES THE REGION AND TERRAIN ENHANCED CIRCULATIONS
   INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. HOWEVER...AFTER COORDINATION WITH
   SWCC...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FIRE STARTS APPEARS TO BE TOO
   MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO MARGINAL FUELS AND LOW COVERAGE OF DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE AN OUTLOOK AREA FROM BEING
   ISSUED.
   
   ...W-CENTRAL MN...
   AT 16Z...AN MCS WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN MN...AND IS EXPECTED TO
   GENERALLY REMAIN N OF W-CENTRAL MN DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY OVER THE
   AREA. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR EMANATING FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION COMBINED WITH STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
   FAVOR RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER WRN MN. IN ADDITION...STRONG SURFACE
   PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW
   PRESSURE TO THE WEST...COMBINED WITH ERN EDGE OF 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL
   JET LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/28/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0302 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
   WRN CONUS THROUGH EARLY SAT. BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL
   PERSIST FROM CNTRL CA ACROSS THE SRN/ERN GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE
   NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. AM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE
   CNTRL CONUS...WITH THE MN PORTION OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
   FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS RETREATING N TO THE CANADIAN BORDER BY
   THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...NERN AZ...FAR SWRN CO...FAR NWRN NM...
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THU...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
   TO THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. A
   DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED S/SWLY SURFACE
   WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH...ALONG WITH SINGLE-DIGIT RH VALUES DROPPING TO
   BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PERCENT. STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WILL REMAIN LIKELY
   ACROSS ERN UT/FAR WRN CO INTO S-CNTRL WY. HOWEVER...PER RECENT
   COORDINATION WITH LOCAL WFOS AND GACC OUTLOOKS...FUELS DO NOT YET
   APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NWRN NM...
   JUST E OF THE CRITICAL AREA FOR STRONG WINDS/LOW RH...PW VALUES OF
   0.50 TO 0.75 IN WILL AGAIN SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF WRN/CNTRL NM. A FEW OF THESE OVER NWRN NM SHOULD BE
   DRY...WITH MAINLY WET TSTMS WHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS MORE
   SCATTERED.
   
   ...W-CNTRL MN...
   MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND PEAK HEATING.
   WITH THE AREA LYING ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET OVER
   THE NRN PLAINS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL
   DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
   /GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S/ SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES FALLING TO
   AROUND 2O TO 25 PERCENT. SPRING GREEN-UP WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
   LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 281738
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SAN LUIS VALLEY OF S-CENTRAL CO...
   A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH S-CENTRAL CO DURING THE
   LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
   20-30 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION.
   THIS FLOW REGIME COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-20 MPH
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...MIN RH VALUES ARE
   EXPECTED TO FALL AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM...
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAK CAPE VALUES AND INVERTED-V
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER CENTRAL AND ERN NM DURING SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE PROFILES...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED HIGH
   BASED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
   AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION AND HEATING OF
   ELEVATED TERRAIN TAKES PLACE. HOWEVER...AN OUTLOOK AREA DOES NOT
   APPEAR NECESSARY GIVEN POOR FUEL CONDITIONS AND LOW THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/28/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0411 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE ERN GREAT BASIN
   WILL SHIFT NEWD REACHING THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE NRN PLAINS
   BY EARLY SUN. A S/SWLY MID-LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME CENTERED
   OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON.
   
   ...SAN LUIS VALLEY OF S-CNTRL CO...
   MODEL FORECASTS DIFFER WITH THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL
   JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. 00Z NAM
   MAINTAINS STRONGER FLOW ACROSS SRN CO SAT AFTERNOON THAN MOST 03Z
   SREF MEMBERS AND 00Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM 15 TO 20 MPH AS RH VALUES
   FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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