Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 281633
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010
VALID 281700Z - 291200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NERN AZ...FAR SWRN CO...FAR NWRN
NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
MORNING UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER THE WRN CONUS...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SRN CA AND INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN. A BELT OF
MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW RESIDES ALONG THE ERN SIDE OF THE
WRN CONUS TROUGH...AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE DAY ACROSS
AZ/WRN NM N-NEWD INTO WY. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND EXTENDED NWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
REGION. DIRECTLY BENEATH THIS UPPER FEATURE...A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WAS VEERING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE
NRN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT
WAS LOCATED OVER NRN UT AND EXTENDED NEWD ACROSS WY AND INTO ND.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THIS FRONT
OVER WY BY LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS UT
AND AZ. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SWD OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE DAY.
...NERN AZ...FAR SWRN CO...FAR NWRN NM...
A BELT OF 40-50 KT 700-500 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER IMPULSE
ROTATES NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE...STRONG SURFACE
HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS PER MODIFIED 12Z FGZ/ABQ/GJT RAOBS AND MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WITH RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS /VALUES
ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TEENS AT 15Z OVER NERN AZ PER SURFACE
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /WHICH WILL AID IN MIXING STRONGER MOMENTUM TO
THE SURFACE/...AS WELL AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER WY...WILL
RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED IN THE INITIAL DAY 1 OUTLOOK...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF ERN UT INTO
SRN-CENTRAL WY...BUT AN OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ASSIGNED DUE TO
MARGINAL FUELS.
...PORTIONS OF WRN NM...
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER DEPICT A PLUME
OF MOISTURE RESIDING OVER CENTRAL NM. MODIFIED 12Z ABQ RAOB FOR
EXPECTED AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SUPPORTS WEAK CAPE VALUES ABOVE A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER WRN PORTIONS OF NM WHERE PWAT
VALUES WILL BE LOWER. THIS WILL LEAD TO A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT BASIN UPPER
IMPULSE GLANCES THE REGION AND TERRAIN ENHANCED CIRCULATIONS
INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. HOWEVER...AFTER COORDINATION WITH
SWCC...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FIRE STARTS APPEARS TO BE TOO
MARGINAL AT THIS TIME DUE TO MARGINAL FUELS AND LOW COVERAGE OF DRY
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE AN OUTLOOK AREA FROM BEING
ISSUED.
...W-CENTRAL MN...
AT 16Z...AN MCS WAS MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN MN...AND IS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY REMAIN N OF W-CENTRAL MN DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY OVER THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR EMANATING FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION COMBINED WITH STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
FAVOR RH VALUES IN THE 20S OVER WRN MN. IN ADDITION...STRONG SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST...COMBINED WITH ERN EDGE OF 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL
JET LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION...WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH.
..GARNER.. 05/28/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0302 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS THROUGH EARLY SAT. BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL
PERSIST FROM CNTRL CA ACROSS THE SRN/ERN GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE
NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. AM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE
CNTRL CONUS...WITH THE MN PORTION OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE
FRONT OVER THE NRN PLAINS RETREATING N TO THE CANADIAN BORDER BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
...NERN AZ...FAR SWRN CO...FAR NWRN NM...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO THU...WITH LITTLE CHANGE
TO THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. A
DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED S/SWLY SURFACE
WINDS FROM 20-25 MPH...ALONG WITH SINGLE-DIGIT RH VALUES DROPPING TO
BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PERCENT. STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WILL REMAIN LIKELY
ACROSS ERN UT/FAR WRN CO INTO S-CNTRL WY. HOWEVER...PER RECENT
COORDINATION WITH LOCAL WFOS AND GACC OUTLOOKS...FUELS DO NOT YET
APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...PORTIONS OF NWRN NM...
JUST E OF THE CRITICAL AREA FOR STRONG WINDS/LOW RH...PW VALUES OF
0.50 TO 0.75 IN WILL AGAIN SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN/CNTRL NM. A FEW OF THESE OVER NWRN NM SHOULD BE
DRY...WITH MAINLY WET TSTMS WHERE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS MORE
SCATTERED.
...W-CNTRL MN...
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND PEAK HEATING.
WITH THE AREA LYING ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET OVER
THE NRN PLAINS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
/GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S/ SHOULD RESULT IN RH VALUES FALLING TO
AROUND 2O TO 25 PERCENT. SPRING GREEN-UP WILL LIKELY REMAIN A
LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 281738
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010
VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SAN LUIS VALLEY OF S-CENTRAL CO...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH S-CENTRAL CO DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NEWD INTO
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT
20-30 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS FLOW REGIME COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-20 MPH
SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...MIN RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND ERN NM...
MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT WEAK CAPE VALUES AND INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OVER CENTRAL AND ERN NM DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE PROFILES...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LITTLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION AND HEATING OF
ELEVATED TERRAIN TAKES PLACE. HOWEVER...AN OUTLOOK AREA DOES NOT
APPEAR NECESSARY GIVEN POOR FUEL CONDITIONS AND LOW THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE.
..GARNER.. 05/28/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0411 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE ERN GREAT BASIN
WILL SHIFT NEWD REACHING THE SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE NRN PLAINS
BY EARLY SUN. A S/SWLY MID-LEVEL JET WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME CENTERED
OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SAT AFTERNOON.
...SAN LUIS VALLEY OF S-CNTRL CO...
MODEL FORECASTS DIFFER WITH THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL
JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. 00Z NAM
MAINTAINS STRONGER FLOW ACROSS SRN CO SAT AFTERNOON THAN MOST 03Z
SREF MEMBERS AND 00Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM 15 TO 20 MPH AS RH VALUES
FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT...RESULTING IN AN ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...