Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 301506
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1006 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010
   
   VALID 301700Z - 311200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...MOST OF ME...
   NO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS D1 OUTLOOK. MORNING SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH GPS TPW GUIDANCE INDICATE DRY AIR IS
   ENTERING ME BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. DEWPOINTS OVER THE NRN
   PART OF THE STATE HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S AT
   14Z...AND LOWER 30S ARE EVIDENT IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OVER QUEBEC.
   WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MODIFIED/FULLY MIXED 12Z CAR RAOB SUPPORTS
   AFTERNOON RH VALUES RANGING FROM 25-35 PERCENT. THESE LOW RH VALUES
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS AS SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS APPROACH 15-20 MPH IN RESPONSE
   TO UPPER SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/30/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0234 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES WILL
   SHIFT EWD FROM NRN HUDSON BAY AND QUEBEC NEWFOUNDLAND AND LABRADOR
   ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
   GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE THROUGH THIS
   AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO MORE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE
   ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF
   THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
   
   ...MOST OF ME...
   IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS MORNING...NWLY LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DRYING WITH 30S
   SURFACE DEW POINTS /ALREADY EVIDENT IN 07Z OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
   SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO CNTRL QUEBEC/. AS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
   WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S...RH VALUES OF 25 TO 35
   PERCENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COMMON. 30/00Z MODEL FORECASTS ARE
   CONSISTENT IN BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...AS MORE ROBUST CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS THIS
   EVENING. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LARGELY AVERAGE FROM 15 TO
   20 MPH...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
   ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE RAIN /AMOUNTS AOA 0.25 IN/ FELL ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF NRN/WRN ME SAT EVENING. OVERALL SETUP SHOULD YIELD
   ENHANCED TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS WHERE DRY FUELS PERSIST.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 301628
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010
   
   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SRN GREAT BASIN...
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BECOME SITUATED
   OVER THE W COAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS
   FEATURE...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PROMOTE RH
   VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HOWEVER...FLOW ALOFT IS NOT
   PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE ARE
   ONLY EXPECTED TO APPROACH 15-20 MPH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   THEREFORE...AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS
   TIME.
   
   ...SAN LUIS VALLEY IN S-CENTRAL CO...
   MID LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SWLY DURING MONDAY...WITH
   SPEEDS AROUND 20 KT AT 700 MB. THIS FLOW REGIME MAY SUPPORT GUSTS UP
   TO 15-20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES WELL
   MIXED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY IN S-CENTRAL CO. IN ADDITION...LARGE
   TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL PROMOTE RH VALUES IN THE 10-15
   PERCENT RANGE. AS A RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/30/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0440 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE/NEARLY ZONAL
   UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ON MON. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
   WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THESE
   IMPULSES WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF MODERATE W/SWLY FLOW ACROSS
   NRN/CNTRL CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...SRN GREAT BASIN...
   A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE LOW RH VALUES OF 5 TO 10
   PERCENT MON AFTERNOON. AS THE REGION LIES ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
   MODERATE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW...A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15 MPH AT PEAK HEATING. THIS
   SHOULD RESULT IN A SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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