Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 311553
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010
VALID 311700Z - 011200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SRN GREAT BASIN...
GENERALLY WEAK SFC-500 MB FLOW IS OBSERVED IN MORNING RAOBS OVER THE
SRN GREAT BASIN...BUT DRY AIR IS PROMINENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WILL
DEVELOP...PROMOTING RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS. IN ADDITION...SWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...WHICH WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...SAN LUIS VALLEY IN S-CENTRAL CO...
MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER S-CENTRAL CO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL
UPPER FLOW REGIME FOR CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...MIN RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP...AND WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10-15
MPH...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...PORTIONS OF ME AND NH...
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY FALL
TO AROUND 30 PERCENT...BUT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT /AROUND 5 MPH/. LATER IN THE
PERIOD...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE W-SW.
..GARNER.. 05/31/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0251 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE/NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW REGIME TODAY. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA AND THE NRN/CNTRL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH EARLY TUE. THESE IMPULSES WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF MODERATE
W/SWLY FLOW ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CA THROUGH WY/NRN CO.
...SRN GREAT BASIN...
A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE LOW RH VALUES OF 5 TO 10
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE REGION LIES ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
MODERATE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW...A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST DURATION OF
ENHANCED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...SAN LUIS VALLEY IN S-CENTRAL CO...
A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DIMINISHING OF MID-LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS SRN CO AS A DISTURBANCE OVER WY EJECTS EWD. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 20 MPH...AS RH VALUES FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 311730
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...SAN LUIS VALLEY OF S-CNTRL CO...
NO CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
...SERN AZ...CNTRL/SRN NM...
NO CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
..GARNER.. 05/31/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0437 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TUE.
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES WILL HELP SHIFT SLIGHTLY SWD A BELT
OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS...CENTERED FROM THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT
BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES TUE AFTERNOON.
...NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...SAN LUIS VALLEY OF S-CNTRL CO...
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MON OVER THE SRN
GREAT BASIN WILL BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY FARTHER E AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TUE AFTERNOON. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN SUSTAINED W/SWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH...AS RH
VALUES FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
ENHANCED/LOCALLY CRITICAL THREAT.
...SERN AZ...CNTRL/SRN NM...
LATEST GFS/NAM/SREF GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR DRY
TSTMS TO OCCUR WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...WEST OF THE ERN NM PLAINS.
HOWEVER...THE 31/00Z ECMWF RUN DEPICTS A PLUME OF SUBSTANTIALLY
RICHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING N FROM NRN MEXICO LATE MON INTO
TUE. THIS APPEARS TO BE QUITE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON TO THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL IMAGERY. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL DRY TSTMS APPEARS VERY LOW ATTM.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...