Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 311553
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1053 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010
   
   VALID 311700Z - 011200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SRN GREAT BASIN...
   GENERALLY WEAK SFC-500 MB FLOW IS OBSERVED IN MORNING RAOBS OVER THE
   SRN GREAT BASIN...BUT DRY AIR IS PROMINENT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WILL
   DEVELOP...PROMOTING RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
   TEENS. IN ADDITION...SWLY LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
   GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A LOW AMPLITUDE
   UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...WHICH WILL AID IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS
   WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...SAN LUIS VALLEY IN S-CENTRAL CO...
   MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER S-CENTRAL CO
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL
   UPPER FLOW REGIME FOR CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS OVER THE SAN LUIS
   VALLEY. HOWEVER...MIN RH VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT ARE FORECAST TO
   DEVELOP...AND WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 10-15
   MPH...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF ME AND NH...
   LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY FALL
   TO AROUND 30 PERCENT...BUT WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
   REGION...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT /AROUND 5 MPH/. LATER IN THE
   PERIOD...RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE DURING THE REMAINDER OF
   THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
   THE W-SW.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/31/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0251 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE/NEARLY ZONAL
   FLOW REGIME TODAY. A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE
   ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA AND THE NRN/CNTRL INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
   THROUGH EARLY TUE. THESE IMPULSES WILL MAINTAIN A BELT OF MODERATE
   W/SWLY FLOW ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CA THROUGH WY/NRN CO.
   
   ...SRN GREAT BASIN...
   A VERY WARM AND DRY AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE LOW RH VALUES OF 5 TO 10
   PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE REGION LIES ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF
   MODERATE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW...A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MODEST DURATION OF
   ENHANCED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SAN LUIS VALLEY IN S-CENTRAL CO...
   A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST
   MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DIMINISHING OF MID-LEVEL
   FLOW ACROSS SRN CO AS A DISTURBANCE OVER WY EJECTS EWD. THIS SHOULD
   RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF ONLY 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS
   TO NEAR 20 MPH...AS RH VALUES FALL TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 311730
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...SAN LUIS VALLEY OF S-CNTRL CO...
   NO CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ...SERN AZ...CNTRL/SRN NM...
   NO CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/31/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0437 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TUE.
   SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES WILL HELP SHIFT SLIGHTLY SWD A BELT
   OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS...CENTERED FROM THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT
   BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES TUE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...SAN LUIS VALLEY OF S-CNTRL CO...
   SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MON OVER THE SRN
   GREAT BASIN WILL BE DISPLACED SLIGHTLY FARTHER E AHEAD OF A WEAK
   SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON TUE AFTERNOON. DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD
   RESULT IN SUSTAINED W/SWLY SURFACE WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH...AS RH
   VALUES FALL TO AROUND 10 PERCENT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN
   ENHANCED/LOCALLY CRITICAL THREAT.
   
   ...SERN AZ...CNTRL/SRN NM...
   LATEST GFS/NAM/SREF GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR DRY
   TSTMS TO OCCUR WHERE FUELS ARE DRY...WEST OF THE ERN NM PLAINS.
   HOWEVER...THE 31/00Z ECMWF RUN DEPICTS A PLUME OF SUBSTANTIALLY
   RICHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING N FROM NRN MEXICO LATE MON INTO
   TUE. THIS APPEARS TO BE QUITE AN OUTLIER IN COMPARISON TO THE OTHER
   OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL IMAGERY. AS SUCH...POTENTIAL
   FOR CRITICAL DRY TSTMS APPEARS VERY LOW ATTM.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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