Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 011618
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1118 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2010
   
   VALID 011700Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...NWRN NM...SAN LUIS VALLEY OF S-CNTRL CO...
   AS MENTIONED IN INITIAL D1 OUTLOOK...MORNING RAOBS INDICATE A BELT
   OF MODERATE W-SWLY FLOW ALOFT /AROUND 20-30 KT AT 700 MB...AND 30-40
   KT AT 500 MB/ POSITIONED FROM CA EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MID
   LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ALSO CONFIRMED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY EXPANDING
   EWD INTO THE AREA...WHICH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY IS NOTED IN SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH
   VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT. THE DRY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO OCCASIONALLY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY OF
   S-CNTRL CO...AS WELL AS NWRN NM.
   
   ...CNTRL NM...
   MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS MID-LEVEL CUMULUS FIELD...WHICH IS
   COINCIDENT WITH A PLUME OF PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 0.60-0.80
   INCHES...EMANATING FROM NRN CHIHUAHUA INTO SRN-CNTRL NM. LATEST
   MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE TRANSPORTS THIS MOISTURE NEWD ACROSS CNTRL
   INTO ERN NM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A STEEP
   LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   REGION...WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MUCAPE VALUES AROUND
   50-100 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED HIGH
   BASED SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...BUT COVERAGE AND
   OVERALL PROBABILITY APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO
   CRITICAL.
   
   ...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...
   SERN AZ/SWRN NM RESIDE ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A PLUME OF PWAT
   VALUES RANGING FROM 0.60-0.80 INCHES...WHICH IS MOVING NWD TOWARD
   CNTRL NM. 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL MOVE
   EWD AWAY FROM THE AREA AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WLY WITH TIME
   AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...MID-LEVEL DRYING
   AND WARMING ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON...YIELDING
   LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR DRY
   TSTM/S.
   
   ..GARNER.. 06/01/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL CHARACTERIZE THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TODAY
   WITH SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE NRN/CNTRL CONUS.
   PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE WRN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES
   BY THIS EVENING.
   
   ...NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...SAN LUIS VALLEY OF S-CNTRL CO...
   ENHANCED TO SHORT-DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS
   AFTERNOON AS THE REGION LIES ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF MODERATE
   MID-LEVEL W/SWLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE
   SHOULD LIMIT THE DEPTH OF THE MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER TO SOME
   EXTENT...MODERATELY DEEP VERTICAL MIXING SHOULD STILL RESULT IN
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED
   WITH LOW RH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 10 PERCENT.
   
   ...CNTRL NM...
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SERN NM ON MON EVENING
   HAD SURGED W OF THE SACRAMENTO/GUADALUPE MTNS INTO S-CNTRL
   NM...WHERE 30S TO LOWER 40S SURFACE DEW POINTS WERE PRESENT AS OF
   07Z. WEAKLY FORCED ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED
   TO LIE OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN AT PEAK HEATING COUPLED WITH THIS
   SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING MAY YIELD MINIMAL BUOYANCY SUFFICIENT
   FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY 00Z NAM FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS. AN ISOLATED DRY TSTM OR TWO APPEARS POSSIBLE...BUT
   OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED.
   
   ...SERN AZ/SWRN NM...
   THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINS A CONSISTENT OUTLIER IN DEPICTING SUBSTANTIAL
   MID-LEVEL MOISTENING THAT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION THIS
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...00Z NAM/GFS GUIDANCE INDICATE SLIGHT MID-LEVEL
   WARMING AND DRYING WILL OCCUR TODAY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTED
   BY RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ALTHOUGH A DRY TSTM CANNOT BE
   COMPLETELY RULED OUT...PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE SEEMS VERY LOW.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 011700
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1200 PM CDT TUE JUN 01 2010
   
   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...PORTIONS OF SERN NM/FAR WRN TX...
   WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER W TX ON
   WEDNESDAY...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING TO ITS S. W OF
   THIS SURFACE TROUGH...DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON OVER SERN NM/WRN-FAR WRN TX...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
   INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 105F...PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES AND MIN RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE
   DIGITS. HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE
   RELATIVELY WEAK WLY MID LEVEL FLOW /15-20 KT AT 700 MB/ WILL PREVAIL
   IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A
   RESULT...SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
   CRITICAL VALUES /AROUND 15 MPH/...THOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   WILL STILL BE ELEVATED.
   
   ..GARNER.. 06/01/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0341 AM CDT TUE JUN 01 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   QUASI-ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   CONUS INTO WED. A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD
   ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM...A
   SERIES OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW
   AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS
   WILL SLACKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE LOW RH WILL REMAIN
   PREVALENT...CURTAILING POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF SERN NM/FAR WRN TX...
   ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WITHIN THE LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC KINEMATIC
   PROFILE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN AOB 25 MPH...THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
   TERRAIN INDUCED ACCELERATIONS SHOULD LEAD TO AREAS OF MODERATE WLY
   SURFACE WINDS /APPROACHING 15 MPH/ FOR A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL BE
   COINCIDENT WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT RESULTING IN A
   LOCALIZED/MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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