Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 051614
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010
VALID 051700Z - 061200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY.
..HURLBUT.. 06/05/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0253 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WEST AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
FROM NRN CA TO THE MIDWEST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE VERY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS THE THREAT OF WIND DRIVEN
FIRES WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN LIGHT DEEP LAYER FLOW. ELSEWHERE...WARM
AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 051902
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. HIGH PWAT /NEAR 1 INCH OR GREATER/ NOTED
ON 12Z SOUNDINGS IN TX WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING TOWARD THE NM/AZ
AREA. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THIS REACHING THE SACRAMENTO AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BY 00Z SUN. DESPITE DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER...THUNDERSTORMS WOULD TEND TO BE WET...THOUGH AMPLE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHERE SELY WINDS WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
UPSLOPE FLOW. NAM STILL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN REGARDS
TO DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN NM AND FAR ERN AZ...MAINLY DUE TO HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND GREATER FORECAST INSTABILITY. THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY
SUSPECT...AS MANY MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW IN FORECAST DEW POINTS
TODAY COMPARED TO CURRENT OBS. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER
E CNTRL AZ/W CNTRL NM MAY SOMEWHAT SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN THESE AREAS...LOWER PWAT AND DRY SUBCLOUD
LAYER WILL SUPPORT DRIER THUNDERSTORMS THAN TO THE E OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN NM.
..HURLBUT.. 06/05/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0327 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN CONUS WITH
UPPER HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE W AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS
WHILE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT.
STRONGEST DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO REGIONS OF BEST
MID/UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN TO THE MID MS
VALLEY TO THE NERN ATLANTIC COAST. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER
THE SE.
...NEW MEXICO...
DRY THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OVER NM AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR W AS NERN AZ AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SURGE WWD ON SELY DEEP LAYER FLOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE
SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT IN HANDLING HOW FAR W THIS MOISTURE WILL
ADVANCE. NAM AND SREF MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH
MID LEVEL /700-500 MB/ MOISTURE REACHING PORTIONS OF WRN NM BY
21-00Z. THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE RETURN CONFINED TO ERN NM E OF
THE SACRAMENTO AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER ERN NM WHERE ALL MODELS AGREE MOISTURE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WHILE THE SUB 700 MB LAYER WILL
INITIALLY BE DRY AND WITH DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ONSET OF
CONVECTION...PW VALUES QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE SHOULD THEREAFTER PRODUCE ENOUGH
PRECIPITATION TO LIMIT THE DRY LIGHTNING THREAT. FURTHER W...SHOULD
MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAKE IT THIS FAR...DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY AS MIXING HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 700-600 MB WITH PW VALUES
AROUND .50 TO .75 INCHES WITH SFC RH VALUES AROUND 15-25%. GIVEN
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS...THIS SOLUTION SEEMS
LESS LIKELY AND THEREFORE WILL NOT INTRODUCE A CRITICAL AREA FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL WITH A SEE TEXT.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...