Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 051614
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1114 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010
   
   VALID 051700Z - 061200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/05/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0253 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
   DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
   WEST AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
   STRONGER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED UNDER MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
   FROM NRN CA TO THE MIDWEST AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. DESPITE VERY WARM
   AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS THE THREAT OF WIND DRIVEN
   FIRES WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN LIGHT DEEP LAYER FLOW. ELSEWHERE...WARM
   AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 051902
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010
   
   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. HIGH PWAT /NEAR 1 INCH OR GREATER/ NOTED
   ON 12Z SOUNDINGS IN TX WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING TOWARD THE NM/AZ
   AREA. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW THIS REACHING THE SACRAMENTO AND
   SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BY 00Z SUN. DESPITE DRY SUBCLOUD
   LAYER...THUNDERSTORMS WOULD TEND TO BE WET...THOUGH AMPLE CLOUD TO
   GROUND LIGHTNING REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN WHERE SELY WINDS WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
   UPSLOPE FLOW. NAM STILL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN REGARDS
   TO DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN NM AND FAR ERN AZ...MAINLY DUE TO HIGHER DEW
   POINTS AND GREATER FORECAST INSTABILITY. THIS IS NOT ENTIRELY
   SUSPECT...AS MANY MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW IN FORECAST DEW POINTS
   TODAY COMPARED TO CURRENT OBS. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER
   E CNTRL AZ/W CNTRL NM MAY SOMEWHAT SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD
   THUNDERSTORMS FORM IN THESE AREAS...LOWER PWAT AND DRY SUBCLOUD
   LAYER WILL SUPPORT DRIER THUNDERSTORMS THAN TO THE E OF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN IN NM.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/05/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0327 AM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NRN CONUS WITH
   UPPER HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE W AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS
   WHILE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT.
   STRONGEST DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO REGIONS OF BEST
   MID/UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN TO THE MID MS
   VALLEY TO THE NERN ATLANTIC COAST. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
   CONTINUE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS OVER
   THE SE.
   
   ...NEW MEXICO...
   DRY THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS WILL INCREASE OVER MUCH OVER NM AND
   POSSIBLY AS FAR W AS NERN AZ AS LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
   SURGE WWD ON SELY DEEP LAYER FLOW. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE
   SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT IN HANDLING HOW FAR W THIS MOISTURE WILL
   ADVANCE. NAM AND SREF MEMBERS CONTINUE TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH
   MID LEVEL /700-500 MB/ MOISTURE REACHING PORTIONS OF WRN NM BY
   21-00Z. THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE RETURN CONFINED TO ERN NM E OF
   THE SACRAMENTO AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
   OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER ERN NM WHERE ALL MODELS AGREE MOISTURE
   WILL BE SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT AND
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WHILE THE SUB 700 MB LAYER WILL
   INITIALLY BE DRY AND WITH DRY THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ONSET OF
   CONVECTION...PW VALUES QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
   AND THUNDERSTORMS HERE SHOULD THEREAFTER PRODUCE ENOUGH
   PRECIPITATION TO LIMIT THE DRY LIGHTNING THREAT. FURTHER W...SHOULD
   MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAKE IT THIS FAR...DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   LIKELY AS MIXING HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 700-600 MB WITH PW VALUES
   AROUND .50 TO .75 INCHES WITH SFC RH VALUES AROUND 15-25%. GIVEN
   BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SWRN CONUS...THIS SOLUTION SEEMS
   LESS LIKELY AND THEREFORE WILL NOT INTRODUCE A CRITICAL AREA FOR DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
   POTENTIAL WITH A SEE TEXT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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