Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 061624
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
VALID 061700Z - 071200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY EVENING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS IN AZ AROUND 21Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN GRANT
COUNTY NM AROUND 01 TO 02Z. ALTHOUGH THE AZ STORM PRODUCED LITTLE
LIGHTNING...THE GRANT COUNTY STORM PRODUCED A COMPACT AREA OF 20-25
CG STRIKES. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING IN THIS AREA...SO IT SEEMS FEASIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE A
REPEAT OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN E CNTRL AZ AND W CNTRL NM. 12Z SOUNDINGS
SHOWED STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WHICH WILL TAKE AMPLE SURFACE
HEATING TO OVERCOME AND WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE
80S AS OF 16Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
100 TO NEAR 110 F. GIVEN DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL LIKELY ERODE BY EARLY
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AROUND
THIS TIME AND INTO THE LATE EVENING. DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW ABOUT
500 MB WILL EVAPORATE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE WETTING
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND...AND MAY INDUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
NEAR ONGOING FIRES.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...WITH THUNDERSTORMS E
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS PRIMARILY WET IN
NATURE...THOUGH WITH THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE MORE EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING THAN AREAS TO THE W.
..HURLBUT.. 06/06/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0241 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED OVER THE GREAT DIVIDE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINING CENTERED OVER SWRN NM. A TROF
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL SHIFT EWD INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SWRN STATES WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ELSEWHERE.
...NM/AZ...
DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN
TODAY FROM WRN NM INTO ERN AZ. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES
ON HOW FAR W MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE ON DEEP SELY FLOW OVER ERN NM.
THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH THE WWD
ADVECTION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE SREF PROBABILITIES AND THE
LATEST WRF-NMM INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS FROM W CNTRL NM INTO E CNTRL AZ. HOWEVER...THE NAM-KF
HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND RUC...INDICATING THAT
MOISTURE WILL MAINLY STAY CONFINED TO AN AREA E OF THE SACRAMENTO
AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN NM AND WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1 INCH...THESE
STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT
FROM LIGHTNING DESPITE A VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. THAT BEING
SAID...GIVEN THE RECENT VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...ANY EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OR LIGHTNING AWAY FROM THE MAIN
CORE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL POSE A THREAT FOR FIRE STARTS. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND COVERAGE OVER
WRN NM AND ERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL WITH A
SEE TEXT RATHER THAN A CRITICAL AREA.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 061912
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF IS CONSISTENT IN
FORMING CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM SERN CO SWWD INTO
SWRN NM WHERE GREATER MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER. THUNDERSTORMS
IN THESE AREAS WILL PRIMARILY BE WET IN NATURE...THOUGH FREQUENT CG
LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGHER PWAT NOTED ON GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN 12Z SOUNDINGS
OVER THE PACIFIC/SRN CA WILL GRADUALLY BE DRAWN EWD/NEWD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NM BREAKS DOWN AND
SHIFTS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL STATES. WLY DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO
ALLOW THE SMALL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO SHIFT EWD AS
WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE IN SWRN
CO/NWRN NM AND SERN UT/ERN AZ...WITH INITIATION GENERALLY FAVORED
ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS...DRY
NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS WILL POSE A THREAT
FOR FIRE STARTS/SPREAD.
..HURLBUT.. 06/06/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0242 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A TROF
OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE ERN CONUS BEGINS TO DRY OUT BEHIND
A COLD FRONT.
...AZ/NM/CO AND ERN UT...
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS ON
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
FIRE STARTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM AND AZ AND EXTEND INTO FAR ERN UT
AND MUCH OF CO. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO SCENARIOS WITH
THE NAM CONTINUING TO INDICATE A RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
SUNDAY...ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM INTO ERN CO ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SWWD FROM AN ERN CO SFC LOW. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WET WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1 INCH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHALLOWER MIXED LAYERS
E OF THE CNTRL NM MOUNTAINS INTO THE CO HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER
W...SHOULD MID LEVEL MOISTURE BE PRESENT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER INTO WRN CO
AND FAR ERN UT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENCE
WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL WITH A SEE TEXT FOR NOW.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...