Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 061624
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
   
   VALID 061700Z - 071200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY EVENING OVER THE WHITE
   MOUNTAINS IN AZ AROUND 21Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN GRANT
   COUNTY NM AROUND 01 TO 02Z. ALTHOUGH THE AZ STORM PRODUCED LITTLE
   LIGHTNING...THE GRANT COUNTY STORM PRODUCED A COMPACT AREA OF 20-25
   CG STRIKES. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
   LINGERING IN THIS AREA...SO IT SEEMS FEASIBLE THAT THERE WILL BE A
   REPEAT OF ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS...PRIMARILY OVER
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN E CNTRL AZ AND W CNTRL NM. 12Z SOUNDINGS
   SHOWED STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WHICH WILL TAKE AMPLE SURFACE
   HEATING TO OVERCOME AND WILL SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE
   80S AS OF 16Z...AND WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
   100 TO NEAR 110 F. GIVEN DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
   30S...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL LIKELY ERODE BY EARLY
   EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING AROUND
   THIS TIME AND INTO THE LATE EVENING. DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER BELOW ABOUT
   500 MB WILL EVAPORATE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH LITTLE WETTING
   RAIN REACHING THE GROUND...AND MAY INDUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
   NEAR ONGOING FIRES.
   
   THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...WITH THUNDERSTORMS E
   OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS PRIMARILY WET IN
   NATURE...THOUGH WITH THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE MORE EXCESSIVE
   LIGHTNING THAN AREAS TO THE W.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/06/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0241 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED OVER THE GREAT DIVIDE WILL SLOWLY
   SHIFT EWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
   WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH REMAINING CENTERED OVER SWRN NM. A TROF
   OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION WILL SHIFT EWD INTO NEW
   ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
   ACROSS THE SWRN STATES WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ELSEWHERE.
   
   ...NM/AZ...
   DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN
   TODAY FROM WRN NM INTO ERN AZ. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES
   ON HOW FAR W MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE ON DEEP SELY FLOW OVER ERN NM.
   THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL WITH THE WWD
   ADVECTION OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHILE SREF PROBABILITIES AND THE
   LATEST WRF-NMM INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM W CNTRL NM INTO E CNTRL AZ. HOWEVER...THE NAM-KF
   HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND RUC...INDICATING THAT
   MOISTURE WILL MAINLY STAY CONFINED TO AN AREA E OF THE SACRAMENTO
   AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN NM AND WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1 INCH...THESE
   STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT
   FROM LIGHTNING DESPITE A VERY DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER. THAT BEING
   SAID...GIVEN THE RECENT VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
   THE AREA...ANY EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OR LIGHTNING AWAY FROM THE MAIN
   CORE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL POSE A THREAT FOR FIRE STARTS. GIVEN
   THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND COVERAGE OVER
   WRN NM AND ERN AZ WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL WITH A
   SEE TEXT RATHER THAN A CRITICAL AREA.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 061912
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
   
   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. DETERMINISTIC MODEL QPF IS CONSISTENT IN
   FORMING CONVECTION ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM SERN CO SWWD INTO
   SWRN NM WHERE GREATER MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER. THUNDERSTORMS
   IN THESE AREAS WILL PRIMARILY BE WET IN NATURE...THOUGH FREQUENT CG
   LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
   
   HIGHER PWAT NOTED ON GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN 12Z SOUNDINGS
   OVER THE PACIFIC/SRN CA WILL GRADUALLY BE DRAWN EWD/NEWD INTO THE
   FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NM BREAKS DOWN AND
   SHIFTS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL STATES. WLY DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO
   ALLOW THE SMALL DISTURBANCE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TO SHIFT EWD AS
   WELL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE IN SWRN
   CO/NWRN NM AND SERN UT/ERN AZ...WITH INITIATION GENERALLY FAVORED
   ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS...DRY
   NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS WILL POSE A THREAT
   FOR FIRE STARTS/SPREAD.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/06/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0242 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FLOW OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY AS UPPER
   RIDGE SHIFTS EWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A TROF
   OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
   OFFSHORE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
   CONTINUE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS. WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
   CONTINUE ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE ERN CONUS BEGINS TO DRY OUT BEHIND
   A COLD FRONT.
   
   ...AZ/NM/CO AND ERN UT...
   ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS ON
   MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
   FIRE STARTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM AND AZ AND EXTEND INTO FAR ERN UT
   AND MUCH OF CO. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO SCENARIOS WITH
   THE NAM CONTINUING TO INDICATE A RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
   MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRIER.
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN
   SUNDAY...ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM INTO ERN CO ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING
   SWWD FROM AN ERN CO SFC LOW. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WET WITH PW
   VALUES AROUND 1 INCH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND SHALLOWER MIXED LAYERS
   E OF THE CNTRL NM MOUNTAINS INTO THE CO HIGH PLAINS. FURTHER
   W...SHOULD MID LEVEL MOISTURE BE PRESENT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER INTO WRN CO
   AND FAR ERN UT. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENCE
   WILL HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL WITH A SEE TEXT FOR NOW.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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