Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 071632
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2010
   
   VALID 071700Z - 081200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS FROM YESTERDAY AND THIS
   MORNING/S CONVECTION...WITH LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
   12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS NM CONFIRM THIS...WHILE AZ SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH
   DRIER. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY THIN CIRRUS...WHICH WILL NOT
   INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING MUCH...WITH 16Z OBS SHOWING TEMPERATURES
   ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS SRN AZ/SWRN NM...WITH MID
   70S TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. DESPITE HOT TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENT
   MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
   QUESTIONABLE IN AZ AND SERN UT. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
   40S WILL LOWER INTO THE 20S BY EVENING AS DEEP LAYER WLY WINDS
   INDUCE DRYING FROM THE WEST. LOWER DEW POINTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
   MAY LEAD TO LESS INSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL...WITH
   THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. IN SWRN
   CO...DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER THAN IN AREAS FARTHER S IN NM...BUT
   VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
   FORM...THEY WILL BE DRY. IN NM...DRYING WILL BE SLOWER TO
   OCCUR...AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
   ANTICIPATED...WITH WET THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY E OF THE N-S ORIENTED
   MOUNTAINS OF CNTRL NM. W OF HERE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE. 
   
   ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE EXISTS...A CONCENTRATED AREA IN
   EXTREME E CNTRL AZ AND W CNTRL NM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ONCE
   AGAIN BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
   
   FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/07/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0245 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LEVEL TROF CENTERED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
   TRACKS EWD FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. DESPITE THE BREAK
   DOWN OF THE RIDGE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SWRN
   CONUS AND VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A TROF WILL
   CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE ERN SEABOARD AND CONDITIONS WILL
   BECOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER.
   
   ...WRN NM/ERN AZ INTO SERN UT AND SWRN CO...
   A MIX OF DRY AND WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MAINLY
   WET THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NM CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EWD. THE
   NAM...WRF-NMM AND SREF CONTINUE TO INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR ERN AZ...WRN NM INTO SE UT/SW CO
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
   LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION WITH SATELLITE
   DERIVED PW VALUES INCREASING FROM E TO W. GIVEN SCATTERED DRY
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT A
   SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR TODAY. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND VERY DRY
   SUBCLOUD LAYER...DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS WRN NM
   WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER W AND N. ASIDE FROM
   LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
   FIRE SPREAD WITH ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRE STARTS. ALTHOUGH
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN NM WILL PRODUCE MORE WETTING
   RAIN...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL STILL
   POSE A THREAT FOR NEW FIRE STARTS AND SPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
   FURTHER FROM THE MAIN RAIN CORE OF THESE STORMS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 071900
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2010
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   19Z WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM FORMING...WITH AN UPPER
   LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR 40 N/151 W. DEEP LAYER WSWLY FLOW WILL
   GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS
   THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WITH SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING IN
   RESPONSE OVER SRN NV AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL
   INCREASE WLY/SWLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF SERN CA/SRN
   NV/NRN AZ AND SRN UT. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED TO
   ALIGN WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THESE
   AREAS.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/07/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0245 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NERN CONUS
   ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AS A
   SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AS UPPER TROF EXITS
   NEW ENGLAND...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE
   CONUS WHILE THE SWRN CONUS REMAINS VERY DRY.
   
   ...SERN CA...SRN NV...NRN AZ AND SRN UT...
   DEEP LAYER W/SWLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
   APPROACHING UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES WILL
   RANGE FROM THE 80S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY EVENING WITH RH VALUES FROM 10-20 PERCENT. SUSTAINED SFC WINDS
   AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON. GIVEN THE
   RECENT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
   AREA...MARGINALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL POSE AT LEAST AN ELEVATED
   THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRES.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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