Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 071632
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2010
VALID 071700Z - 081200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
WV IMAGERY IS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DEBRIS FROM YESTERDAY AND THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTION...WITH LINGERING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE.
12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS NM CONFIRM THIS...WHILE AZ SOUNDINGS ARE MUCH
DRIER. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY THIN CIRRUS...WHICH WILL NOT
INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING MUCH...WITH 16Z OBS SHOWING TEMPERATURES
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS SRN AZ/SWRN NM...WITH MID
70S TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE. DESPITE HOT TEMPERATURES AND SUFFICIENT
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
QUESTIONABLE IN AZ AND SERN UT. DEW POINTS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S WILL LOWER INTO THE 20S BY EVENING AS DEEP LAYER WLY WINDS
INDUCE DRYING FROM THE WEST. LOWER DEW POINTS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MAY LEAD TO LESS INSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. IN SWRN
CO...DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER THAN IN AREAS FARTHER S IN NM...BUT
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
FORM...THEY WILL BE DRY. IN NM...DRYING WILL BE SLOWER TO
OCCUR...AND A GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
ANTICIPATED...WITH WET THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY E OF THE N-S ORIENTED
MOUNTAINS OF CNTRL NM. W OF HERE...THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE EXISTS...A CONCENTRATED AREA IN
EXTREME E CNTRL AZ AND W CNTRL NM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY ONCE
AGAIN BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
..HURLBUT.. 06/07/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0245 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROF CENTERED OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
TRACKS EWD FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. DESPITE THE BREAK
DOWN OF THE RIDGE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SWRN
CONUS AND VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. A TROF WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE ERN SEABOARD AND CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER.
...WRN NM/ERN AZ INTO SERN UT AND SWRN CO...
A MIX OF DRY AND WET THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH MAINLY
WET THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NM CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EWD. THE
NAM...WRF-NMM AND SREF CONTINUE TO INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR ERN AZ...WRN NM INTO SE UT/SW CO
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
LARGE AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION WITH SATELLITE
DERIVED PW VALUES INCREASING FROM E TO W. GIVEN SCATTERED DRY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON EXPECT A
SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR TODAY. GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND VERY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER...DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS WRN NM
WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER W AND N. ASIDE FROM
LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS FROM THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR
FIRE SPREAD WITH ANY ONGOING OR NEW FIRE STARTS. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN NM WILL PRODUCE MORE WETTING
RAIN...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL STILL
POSE A THREAT FOR NEW FIRE STARTS AND SPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
FURTHER FROM THE MAIN RAIN CORE OF THESE STORMS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 071900
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT MON JUN 07 2010
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
19Z WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM FORMING...WITH AN UPPER
LOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR 40 N/151 W. DEEP LAYER WSWLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WITH SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE OVER SRN NV AND NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL
INCREASE WLY/SWLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS MUCH OF SERN CA/SRN
NV/NRN AZ AND SRN UT. FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED TO
ALIGN WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THESE
AREAS.
..HURLBUT.. 06/07/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0245 AM CDT MON JUN 07 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NERN CONUS
ON TUESDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AS A
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AS UPPER TROF EXITS
NEW ENGLAND...WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL FILL IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE
CONUS WHILE THE SWRN CONUS REMAINS VERY DRY.
...SERN CA...SRN NV...NRN AZ AND SRN UT...
DEEP LAYER W/SWLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LOW OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH RH VALUES FROM 10-20 PERCENT. SUSTAINED SFC WINDS
AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE COMMON. GIVEN THE
RECENT VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
AREA...MARGINALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL POSE AT LEAST AN ELEVATED
THREAT FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRES.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...