Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 101632
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1132 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2010
   
   VALID 101700Z - 111200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CA/SRN NV/NRN AZ/SERN UT/SWRN
   CO/MUCH OF NM...
   
   16Z WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE WA/ORE BORDER...WITH A
   STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE/JET MAX MOVING EWD INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.
   SEVERAL AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO
   THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST...ANALYZED AT 16Z OVER SRN
   NV...NERN UT...AND SERN CO. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THESE FEATURES...WHILE DEEP MIXING WILL
   PROMOTE STRONG GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. HAVE EXPANDED THE CRITICAL INTO
   PORTIONS OF WRN AND NRN NM WHERE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25
   MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/10/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0241 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE WRN CONUS AND
   DIG SWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. ASSOCIATED INCREASING DEEP LAYER
   SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF COMBINED WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
   CONDITIONS WILL BRING INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE SWRN
   CONUS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM LA
   TO MN WILL TRACK EWD BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM FL TO THE WRN
   GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE INCREASING
   TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOIST ACROSS
   MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
   
   ...SERN CA...SRN NV...NRN AZ...SERN UT...SWRN CO AND NWRN NM...
   MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30-40 KT IN RESPONSE TO
   APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
   FROM SRN NV TO SERN CO. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME DEEPLY MIXED
   TO AROUND 650-500 MB BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S
   AND 90S. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX
   DOWNWARD...TRANSLATING TO SFC GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. STRONG WINDS
   COMBINED WITH RH VALUES FROM 5-15 PERCENT WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
   
   ...SRN AZ...SRN AND ERN NM...FAR SERN CO...SWRN KS AND THE OK/TX
   PANHANDLES...
   WHILE RH CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET WITH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT
   EXPECTED...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS FROM SRN AZ THROUGH SRN
   NM. EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN
   THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
   THE 90S. 
   
   FURTHER N FROM NERN NM TO SERN CO INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SWRN
   KS...WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY MEET CRITERIA AS SFC FLOW INCREASES IN
   RESPONSE TO SFC LOW OVER SERN CO. RH VALUES WILL TEETER ON THE
   CRITICAL THRESHOLD FROM 15-20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THREAT
   SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...RECENT RAINFALL AND
   STILL EXISTING GREEN-UP CONDITIONS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 101853
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2010
   
   VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM...
   
   ...ERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM...
   HAVE EXPANDED THE CRITICAL EWD WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 20 TO
   25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
   TRACK.
   
   ...WRN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CA...
   STRONG NLY FLOW ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE
   NLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED
   BY RELATIVELY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 8500 TO 9500 FT...WITH
   STRONGEST WINDS PRIMARILY IN MID TO UPPER LEVELS UNABLE TO MIX TO
   THE SURFACE...THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. DRY AIR MASS/MIXING WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
   THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S F. IN
   DISCUSSION WITH LOCAL OFFICES...FUELS PRIMARILY BELOW 2000 FT ARE
   BEGINNING TO CURE ALONG THE WRN PORTION OF THE SACRAMENTO
   VALLEY...AND WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR FIRE STARTS/SPREAD.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/10/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0242 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH ON FRIDAY BUT WILL
   BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS IT DIGS OVER BAJA CA AND A CLOSED LOW MAY
   DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
   THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
   
   ...ERN AZ AND WRN NM...
   WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GREATEST IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY AS WARM
   TEMPERATURES /UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S/ AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS /RH
   5-15 PERCENT/ CONTINUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A WELL-MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND 700-600 MB WITH MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW AROUND
   30-40 KT. SFC LOWS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED THIS PERIOD WITH
   GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SRN AZ AND A MORE WELL DEFINED LOW
   OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. EXPECT SUSTAINED SFC WINDS AROUND 20-25
   MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH TO COMBINE WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO
   CREATE A CRITICAL AREA FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRES.
   
   ...ERN NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...
   MARGINALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. MID LEVEL
   FLOW WILL BE WEAKER HERE AT AROUND 20 KTS. HOWEVER...THE CLOSE
   PROXIMITY TO A SFC LOW SITUATED NEAR THE OK PANHANDLE AND A DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TRANSLATE TO SFC WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH
   WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH. RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 10 PERCENT ARE
   EXPECTED AS WELL. DESPITE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS...RECENT RAINFALL
   AND UNFAVORABLE FUELS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA AT THIS TIME.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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