Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 101632
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2010
VALID 101700Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN CA/SRN NV/NRN AZ/SERN UT/SWRN
CO/MUCH OF NM...
16Z WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE WA/ORE BORDER...WITH A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE/JET MAX MOVING EWD INTO NRN CA/NWRN NV.
SEVERAL AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAVE DEVELOPED IN RESPONSE TO
THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST...ANALYZED AT 16Z OVER SRN
NV...NERN UT...AND SERN CO. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THESE FEATURES...WHILE DEEP MIXING WILL
PROMOTE STRONG GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. HAVE EXPANDED THE CRITICAL INTO
PORTIONS OF WRN AND NRN NM WHERE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 25
MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
..HURLBUT.. 06/10/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0241 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E OVER THE WRN CONUS AND
DIG SWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY. ASSOCIATED INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF COMBINED WITH CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BRING INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE SWRN
CONUS. AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM LA
TO MN WILL TRACK EWD BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED FROM FL TO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE INCREASING
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOIST ACROSS
MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
...SERN CA...SRN NV...NRN AZ...SERN UT...SWRN CO AND NWRN NM...
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30-40 KT IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROF. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
FROM SRN NV TO SERN CO. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME DEEPLY MIXED
TO AROUND 650-500 MB BY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S
AND 90S. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX
DOWNWARD...TRANSLATING TO SFC GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. STRONG WINDS
COMBINED WITH RH VALUES FROM 5-15 PERCENT WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
...SRN AZ...SRN AND ERN NM...FAR SERN CO...SWRN KS AND THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES...
WHILE RH CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET WITH VALUES OF 10-15 PERCENT
EXPECTED...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS FROM SRN AZ THROUGH SRN
NM. EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE 90S.
FURTHER N FROM NERN NM TO SERN CO INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND SWRN
KS...WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY MEET CRITERIA AS SFC FLOW INCREASES IN
RESPONSE TO SFC LOW OVER SERN CO. RH VALUES WILL TEETER ON THE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD FROM 15-20 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THREAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED BY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...RECENT RAINFALL AND
STILL EXISTING GREEN-UP CONDITIONS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 101853
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CDT THU JUN 10 2010
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM...
...ERN AZ AND MUCH OF NM...
HAVE EXPANDED THE CRITICAL EWD WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 20 TO
25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE COMMON. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
...WRN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN CA...
STRONG NLY FLOW ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL INDUCE
NLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH. GUSTS WILL BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED
BY RELATIVELY LOW MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 8500 TO 9500 FT...WITH
STRONGEST WINDS PRIMARILY IN MID TO UPPER LEVELS UNABLE TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE...THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. DRY AIR MASS/MIXING WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S F. IN
DISCUSSION WITH LOCAL OFFICES...FUELS PRIMARILY BELOW 2000 FT ARE
BEGINNING TO CURE ALONG THE WRN PORTION OF THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY...AND WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR FIRE STARTS/SPREAD.
..HURLBUT.. 06/10/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0242 AM CDT THU JUN 10 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH ON FRIDAY BUT WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS IT DIGS OVER BAJA CA AND A CLOSED LOW MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT BASIN. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS.
...ERN AZ AND WRN NM...
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE GREATEST IN THIS AREA ON FRIDAY AS WARM
TEMPERATURES /UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S/ AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS /RH
5-15 PERCENT/ CONTINUE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER TO AROUND 700-600 MB WITH MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW AROUND
30-40 KT. SFC LOWS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED THIS PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SRN AZ AND A MORE WELL DEFINED LOW
OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. EXPECT SUSTAINED SFC WINDS AROUND 20-25
MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH TO COMBINE WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO
CREATE A CRITICAL AREA FOR WIND DRIVEN FIRES.
...ERN NM AND THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...
MARGINALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE WEAKER HERE AT AROUND 20 KTS. HOWEVER...THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO A SFC LOW SITUATED NEAR THE OK PANHANDLE AND A DEEPLY
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TRANSLATE TO SFC WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH. RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 10 PERCENT ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL. DESPITE NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS...RECENT RAINFALL
AND UNFAVORABLE FUELS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL AREA AT THIS TIME.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...