Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 111640
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010
   
   VALID 111700Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SERN AZ INTO CNTRL NM...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SACRAMENTO AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN
   VALLEYS...
   
   ...AZ/NM...
   REDUCED NRN EXTENT OF CRITICAL AREA A BIT BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS
   OF WEAKER SFC-700 MB FLOW N OF THE MAIN WIND MAX ALOFT.
   ALSO...WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO COOLING ALOFT...AND
   VERTICAL MOTION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
   MARGINAL RH CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF NRN AZ AND FAR NRN NM.
   
   IN ADDITION...VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NWRN NM INTO CO. ALTHOUGH THE
   SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL BE DRY...FORCING AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST A
   FEW ORGANIZED/LONGER LIVED CORES. THUS...A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
   STORMS MAY OCCUR.
   
   ...N CNTRL CA...
   EXPANDED THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOKS CRITICAL AREA FARTHER S ACROSS THE
   SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AS IT APPEARS WINDS WILL BE STRONG THERE AS WELL
   AND RH WILL BE IN THE TEENS. ALSO INCLUDED E BAY HILLS IN CRITICAL
   AREA.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/11/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0250 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
   OVER CA AND THE WRN GREAT BASIN WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
   STEADFAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE ERN CONUS.  THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
   EVOLVE INTO A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
   STRENGTHENING SWLY/S OVERSPREAD THE SWRN U.S.
   
   ...ERN AZ AND WRN HALF OF NM...
   STRENGTHENING H5 FLOW /RANGING FROM 30-50 KTS/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE
   REGION TODAY AHEAD OF STRONGER UPSTREAM SPEED MAXIMA ALONG THE CA
   COAST.  AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL COMMENCE AND
   LEAD TO AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WITH RH AROUND 10 PERCENT. 
   SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS 20-25 MPH SEEM PROBABLE ACCORDING TO THE MOST
   RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH.
   
   ...ERN NM AND TX-OK PANHANDLES...
   A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE WILL MEANDER OVER THE REGION AS A LARGE SCALE
   UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE W OVER PARTS OF THE WRN STATES.  IN THIS
   REGION BEHIND THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH...CRITICALLY LOW RH /BELOW 15
   PERCENT/ WILL JUXTAPOSE WITH MODERATE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
   WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  RELATIVELY TEMPERED CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
   ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FUELS WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT.
   
   ...SACRAMENTO AND NRN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS...
   DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...STRONG/DEEP NLY TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
   SEEMINGLY RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS /20 TO 25 MPH/
   WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.  IT IS HERE WHERE POCKETS OF LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STEEP--YIELDING SLIGHTLY
   HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND LOW RH VALUES /10-20 PERCENT/. 
   LOWER ELEVATIONS /2000 FT OR LESS/ WILL BE RECEPTIVE FOR FIRE
   STARTS/GROWTH AND PER COORDINATION WITH A LOCAL FORECAST
   OFFICE...HAVE UPGRADED TO A CRITICAL HIGHLIGHT.
   
   ...EAST BAY HILLS...
   DURING THE LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT HOURS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE SOME NNE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SOME ENHANCED
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE LOWER-MIDDLE
   ELEVATIONS...PARTICULARLY THE EAST BAY HILLS AND SURROUNDING LOCAL
   AREA.  A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
   20 MPH MAY RESULT /GUSTS 30-35 MPH/...WITH RH MARGINALLY LOW RH /25
   PERCENT/.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 111704
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1204 PM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ...NM...FAR W TX...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR INTERIOR NRN CA...
   
   ...SERN AZ INTO NM...
   CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY LOOK TO BE SOLIDLY INTO CRITICAL PARAMETER
   SPACE AS OPPOSED TO FRIDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EWD
   ACROSS REGION WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 MPH AND MIN
   RH DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND PERHAPS UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
   
   ...SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND E BAY HILLS...
   A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN A NLY FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN OVER
   NRN CA ON SAT. THUS..ADDED A CRITICAL AREA AS WINDS WILL REMAIN
   STRONG...AVERAGING NEAR 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND WITH MIN RH IN
   THE TEENS.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 06/11/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0332 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDDLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL
   OPEN/WEAKEN AS A SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
   EJECTS NEWD OVER CNTRL ROCKIES BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  UPPER RIDGING
   WILL SPREAD EWD OVER THE PACIFIC NW EXTENDING SWD TO THE NRN CA
   COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING.  FARTHER E...AN UPPER HIGH WILL BE OVER
   THE DEEP S.  AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE WILL RESIDE OVER THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS WITH A DIURNALLY OSCILLATING DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH NEAR THE
   TX/NM BORDER REGION.
   
   ...SERN AZ / LARGE PART OF WRN - CNTRL NM / FAR W TX...
   ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE
   JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS/LOW RH ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE AND RH
   DROPPING INTO THE 10-15 PERCENT RANGE ARE PROBABLE OVER MUCH OF THE
   AREA.
   
   ...SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS...
   A MODESTLY STRONG BUT WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST DURING
   THE DAYTIME HOURS ACROSS THE CNTRL VALLEYS.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO
   THE E MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMER
   THAN FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDING BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE AREA.  THIS WILL
   YIELD LONGER DURATION LOWER RH /10-15 PERCENT/...ESPECIALLY WITH
   FARTHER S EXTENT.  WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER...WITH SUSTAINED
   WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 MPH.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home