Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 151625
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010
   
   VALID 151700Z - 161200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ADDED A SEE TEXT FOR NERN ME WHERE MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   WILL EXIST TODAY.
   
   ...SRN-WRN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. 15Z SFC SUBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CNTRL
   NV INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...WHILE A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
   FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES ACROSS NRN NV. DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE AHEAD OF
   A DIGGING PAC NW UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
   NRN GREAT BASIN. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEPLY-MIXED AND DRYING
   BOUNDARY LAYER COINCIDENT WITH A TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
   EXPECTED TO YIELD SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AND CRITICALLY LOW RH
   AROUND 10-15 PERCENT. LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
   THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT STILL APPEARS
   UNLIKELY.
   
   ...NERN ME...
   VERTICALLY-STACKED UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF
   ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT EWD TODAY. AS A RESULT...A
   TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
   REMAINING FIXED OVER SRN ON/QC...YIELDING SUSTAINED NWLY WINDS OF
   15-20 MPH. WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE /CHARACTERIZED BY
   LOW 30S SFC DEWPOINTS PER 16Z SFC OBS/...AND DRY LOW-LEVELS
   INDICATED BY THE 12Z CAR RAOB...INCREASED VERTICAL MIXING WILL
   RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING TO MARGINALLY CRITICAL LEVELS
   /MID-UPPER 20S/. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCASIONALLY BE OBSERVED
   THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NERN ME...BUT LACK OF WIDESPREAD
   CRITICAL WINDS WILL PRECLUDE AN OUTLOOK AREA FROM BEING REQUIRED.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/15/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0253 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
   WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW.  THIS FEATURE
   WILL DROP SSEWD FROM THE WA COAST TO THE WRN GREAT BASIN BY
   WEDNESDAY MORNING.  AN INCREASING HEIGHT GRADIENT OVER THIS REGION
   WILL LEAD TO MODERATELY STRONG WINDS OVERSPREADING THE WRN PORTIONS
   OF THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A SEASONABLY DRY/VERY WARM
   AIRMASS.  FARTHER E...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MO
   RIVER VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES.
   
   ...SRN-WRN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
   A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS MODERATELY
   STRONG SWLY-WLY WINDS DEVELOP.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY STEEP
   LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONDUCIVE FOR DEEPLY MIXED PROFILES
   SUPPORTIVE OF CRITICALLY LOW RH /10-15 PERCENT/.  MODEL CONSENSUS
   INDICATES THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEARING 20 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   SEEM UNLIKELY...LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS SEEM POSSIBLE WHERE
   HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS OCCUR.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 151914
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 PM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOJAVE DESERT / SRN GREAT BASIN /
   FOUR CORNERS / SAN LUIS VALLEY OF SRN CO...
   
   PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
   MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE CRITICAL RISK AREA WERE THE INCLUSION OF
   THE SAN LUIS VALLEY IN S CNTRL CO...AND A SLIGHT EXPANSION S AND E
   IN CNTRL NM. LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASED
   CONFIDENCE OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH/GUSTS TO 40 MPH
   DEVELOPING WITHIN A DRY/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. WIDESPREAD
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
   REMAINDER OF THE RISK AREA...STRETCHING FROM THE MOJAVE DESERT/SRN
   GREAT BASIN INTO NWRN NM.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/15/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0256 AM CDT TUE JUN 15 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE A LARGE PART OF THE WRN U.S.
   WEDNESDAY LEADING TO HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS A LARGE
   PART OF THE INTERIOR W AND DESERT SW.  DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN U.S.
   UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE
   UPPER MIDWEST IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FEATURE
   EXITING THE NERN U.S.  A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN GREAT
   BASIN TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED
   SWWD FROM THE WY BIG HORNS TOWARDS THE MOJAVE DESERT.
   
   ...MOJAVE DESERT / SRN GREAT BASIN / FOUR CORNERS...
   A BELT OF STRONG H5 FLOW /40-60 KTS/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
   WEDNESDAY.  WARM TO HOT HIGH TEMPS /NEAR 90 TO 100 PLUS DEG F/...A
   VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AND A VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
   WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.  A VERY DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT--YIELDING STRONG SWLY SUSTAINED WINDS
   /20-35 MPH/ WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH AT TIMES...WITH THE STRONGEST
   WINDS LIKELY OVER THE SRN GREAT BASIN.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MIN
   RH RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
   
   ...CNTRL - NERN UT / NWRN CO / SWRN WY...
   VERY STRONG TO LOCALIZED EXTREME WIND GUSTS /IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH/
   SEEM POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL UT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN
   AN UNSTABLE/DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.  ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE
   COOLER THAN AREAS FARTHER S OVER THE MIDDLE COLORADO RIVER
   VALLEY...MIN RH IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
   TEENS.  ACCORDING TO THE LATEST REGIONAL FUEL
   ASSESSMENT/INFORMATION...THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY BE LESS RECEPTIVE
   FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD THAN AREAS FARTHER S ALTHOUGH
   CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR IN MAGNITUDE.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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