Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 161602
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1102 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2010
   
   VALID 161700Z - 171200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOJAVE DESERT / SRN GREAT BASIN /
   FOUR CORNERS / SAN LUIS VALLEY OF SRN CO...
   
   PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...WITH NO CHANGES MADE TO
   THE OUTLINED RISK AREA. RECENT VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLEAR
   SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
   TO HEAT UP WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATION AREAS AND THE
   SUBSEQUENT FORMATION OF A VERY DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. 16Z
   SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE ALREADY
   APPROACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS /AROUND 20 MPH/ OVER SRN NV...ALONG
   WITH RH VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS...AHEAD OF A
   COLD FRONT POSITIONED ACROSS CNTRL NV. STRONGER WINDS ARE FORECAST
   TO DEVELOP EWD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC
   LOW SHIFT ENEWD.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/16/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED
   LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH IS FORECAST TO
   IMPACT MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST TODAY.  CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL ENCOMPASS A LARGE PART OF THE INTERIOR W AND DESERT
   SW.  DOWNSTREAM OF THE WRN U.S. SYSTEM...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL
   OCCUR OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   EXITING THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND.  A SURFACE LOW WILL
   MOVE FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH AN
   ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWD FROM THE WY BIG HORNS TOWARDS THE
   MOJAVE DESERT.
   
   ...MOJAVE DESERT / SRN GREAT BASIN / FOUR CORNERS...
   A BELT OF STRONG H5 FLOW /40-60 KTS/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
   MID 80S TO MID 90S DEG F IN A VERY DEEPLY MIXED/UNSTABLE LOWER
   TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE.  MIN RH VALUES WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET INTO THE
   5-15 PERCENT RANGE AMIDST STRONG TO VERY STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS
   /20-35 MPH/ WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 55 MPH OVER THE NRN PART OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA.  STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE ABOVE SCENARIO ELUDES
   TO A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO WHERE EXISTING
   FIRES CAN GROW RAPIDLY.
   
   ...CNTRL - NERN UT / NWRN CO / SWRN WY...
   MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING VERY STRONG TO LOCALIZED
   EXTREME WIND GUSTS /IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH/ BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL
   UT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN AN UNSTABLE/DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER.  ALTHOUGH MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN AREAS
   FARTHER S OVER THE MIDDLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...MIN RH IS EXPECTED
   TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.  ISOLD TSTMS WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER
   TROUGH/COLD FRONT...LEADING TO GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS INVOF TSTMS. 
   ACCORDING TO THE LATEST REGIONAL FUEL ASSESSMENT/INFORMATION...THIS
   AREA WILL PROBABLY BE LESS RECEPTIVE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH/SPREAD
   THAN AREAS FARTHER S ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE SIMILAR IN
   MAGNITUDE.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 161824
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0124 PM CDT WED JUN 16 2010
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ADDED A SEE TEXT AREA FOR S CNTRL / SERN CO.
   
   ...S CNTRL AND SERN CO...
   WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 20-30 KTS AT 700 MB/ WILL EXIST OVER THE
   CNTRL ROCKIES IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE NRN
   PLAINS. WLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF A
   WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SERN CO...WHERE
   TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND MIN RH VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
   WILL EXIST. ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL
   BE SOMEWHAT COOLER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...THE AIR MASS WILL
   REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DRY TO YIELD AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE
   LOWER-MID TEENS. SUSTAINED WLY SFC WINDS OF 15-20 MPH...COMBINED
   WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS...SHOULD LEAD TO AN ENHANCED FIRE
   WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/16/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM CNTRL WY
   TO THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER BY THURSDAY EVENING.  AT THE SURFACE...A
   COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE NEWD OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND EXTEND SWD TO
   THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  A COOLER AIRMASS WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE
   INTERIOR W BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  MODERATE MID LEVEL WLY/S WILL
   PROBABLY OVERLAP A WARM/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER INVOF OF NERN NM...BUT
   POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEARS LOW ATTM
   THROUGHOUT THE CONUS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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