Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 181631
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1131 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010
   
   VALID 181700Z - 191200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF MOJAVE DESERT/SRN
   GREAT BASIN...
   
   UPGRADED PORTIONS OF THE MOJAVE DESERT AND THE SRN GREAT BASIN TO A
   CRITICAL RISK AREA FOR TODAY. A CATEGORICAL SEE TEXT AREA WAS ALSO
   ADDED TO S CNTRL CO.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF MOJAVE DESERT/SRN GREAT BASIN...
   SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD
   SUSTAINED SWLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH /GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH/ OVER THE
   MOJAVE DESERT AND SRN GREAT BASIN IN SERN CA AND SRN/S CNTRL NV
   TODAY. A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING SPEED MAX...CURRENTLY
   LOCATED OFF THE SRN CA COAST PER RECENT VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL SHIFT
   EWD INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
   SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER ERN NV...WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS IN
   RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE RESULTING
   INCREASE IN WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A HOT AND DRY AIR MASS TO
   PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY AT LOWER
   ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE VALLEY FLOORS AND FOOTHILLS...WHERE DRIER
   FUELS MAY EXIST.
   
   ...S CNTRL CO...
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WILL EXIST OVER S CNTRL CO
   BENEATH MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT /20-30 KTS/...WHILE A WEAK LEE SFC LOW
   DEEPENS OVER SERN CO. AS ABUNDANT HEATING OCCURS WITHIN A DRY AIR
   MASS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH.
   ALTHOUGH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
   A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH...LOCALIZED CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS MAY EXIST IN AREAS FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN-ENHANCED WINDS.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/18/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD ALONG THE CA COAST ON
   FRIDAY. AS THIS TAKES PLACE...A MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL ENTER SRN CA
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL
   FLOW FIELDS OVER THE SRN DESERTS OF CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF THE SRN CA DESERTS AND SRN GREAT BASIN...
   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS POTIONS OF
   THE SRN CA DESERTS INTO THE SRN GREAT BASIN /SRN NV...SRN UT...AND
   NRN AZ/ AS AN UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
   APPROACH THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS /RANGING FROM 20-25 MPH/ WILL OCCUR
   FROM THE MOJAVE DESERT/DEATH VALLEY/OWENS VALLEY AREA E-NEWD INTO
   PORTIONS OF SRN-CENTRAL NV. HOT TEMPERATURES AND DEEPLY MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES WILL SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE
   DIGITS...WITH POOR RH RECOVERY EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS A
   RESULT...NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
   EXPECTED OVER SRN NV AND PORTIONS OF SRN CA WHERE FUELS ARE MOST
   FAVORABLE FOR LARGE FIRE GROWTH.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 181837
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 PM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ADDED A SEE TEXT AREA TO S CNTRL CO. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN...WITH NO
   CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK REQUIRED.
   
   ...S CNTRL CO...
   AS A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT PASSES TO THE N...AND
   A SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER ERN CO...WLY SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE
   ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SURROUNDING MOUNTAIN RANGES.
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 10-20 MPH /GUSTS
   TO 30 MPH/ BY THE AFTERNOON. A WARM/DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
   WILL ALLOW FOR A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES/ TO FORM. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION
   SHOULD ENHANCE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AND CREATE LOCALIZED CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO
   WARRANT A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/18/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT FRI JUN 18 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE PAC NW ON
   SATURDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH POSITIONED OVER CA AND THE WRN GREAT
   BASIN. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A BAND OF MODERATELY
   STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW SITUATED ACROSS A WARM/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
   LOCATED OVER THE SWRN CONUS.
   
   ...SRN GREAT BASIN...
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WARM/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS WILL BE IN
   PLACE ACROSS THE SRN GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY...WITH AFTERNOON RH
   VALUES AROUND 10 PERCENT. GIVEN SEASONABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY
   FLOW /25 KT AT 700 MB/ WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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