Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 201548
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010
VALID 201700Z - 211200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. MORNING RAOB
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MODERATELY STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
/40-50 KTS AT 500 MB PER 12Z FGZ AND GJT RAOBS/ REMAINS FIXED OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES...EXPECT
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SRN CO PLATEAU/FOUR CORNERS
REGION INTO S CNTRL AND WRN CO. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE DURATION/AREAL COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE
TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL RISK AREA.
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR...PARTICULARLY IN
TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS.
..ROGERS.. 06/20/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE ON SUNDAY...WITH A
BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
OREGON...AND A RIDGE POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
BROAD ZONE OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THE WRN CONUS TROUGH...FAVORING STRENGTHENING AFTERNOON SURFACE
WINDS ACROSS A WARM/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE SWRN CONUS NEWD
TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
...NRN AZ...SRN UT...NWRN NM...SWRN TO S-CENTRAL CO...
MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
RANGE FROM 15-25 MPH DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS POSSIBLE WITH FAVORED TERRAIN FEATURES. THIS
FLOW REGIME COMBINED WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 5-15 PERCENT WILL
RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 201828
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...WRN/CNTRL NM...FAR SERN AZ...
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SSWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT
HIGHER PWAT VALUES /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MX
PER RECENT GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY/ INTO FAR SERN AZ AND WRN/CNTRL
NM. AS A RESULT...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE REGION. A VERY DRY/DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL YIELD FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL RISK
AREA.
..ROGERS.. 06/20/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN CONUS.
...NRN AZ...SRN UT...
MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW /AROUND 30 KT AT 500
MB...15-20 KT AT 700 MB/ IS FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS NRN AZ/SRN UT
ON MONDAY...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN MIN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE
LOWER TEENS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...CENTRAL NM...
NAM AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/MODEST
PWAT VALUES IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED/DRY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD FIRE STARTS APPEARS LIMITED ENOUGH ATTM TO PRECLUDE A
CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...