Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 201548
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1048 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010
   
   VALID 201700Z - 211200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. MORNING RAOB
   OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MODERATELY STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW 
   /40-50 KTS AT 500 MB PER 12Z FGZ AND GJT RAOBS/ REMAINS FIXED OVER
   MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. AS VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES...EXPECT
   OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE SRN CO PLATEAU/FOUR CORNERS
   REGION INTO S CNTRL AND WRN CO. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
   THAT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS AT TIMES
   THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE DURATION/AREAL COVERAGE STILL APPEARS TO BE
   TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL RISK AREA.
   LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY STILL OCCUR...PARTICULARLY IN
   TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/20/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE ON SUNDAY...WITH A
   BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
   OREGON...AND A RIDGE POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
   BROAD ZONE OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY
   THE WRN CONUS TROUGH...FAVORING STRENGTHENING AFTERNOON SURFACE
   WINDS ACROSS A WARM/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE SWRN CONUS NEWD
   TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
   
   ...NRN AZ...SRN UT...NWRN NM...SWRN TO S-CENTRAL CO...
   MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL
   RANGE FROM 15-25 MPH DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY STRONGER
   SURFACE WINDS SPEEDS POSSIBLE WITH FAVORED TERRAIN FEATURES. THIS
   FLOW REGIME COMBINED WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 5-15 PERCENT WILL
   RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201828
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0128 PM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010
   
   VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...WRN/CNTRL NM...FAR SERN AZ...
   FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SSWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL ADVECT
   HIGHER PWAT VALUES /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MX
   PER RECENT GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY/ INTO FAR SERN AZ AND WRN/CNTRL
   NM. AS A RESULT...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
   THE REGION. A VERY DRY/DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL YIELD FAVORABLE
   CONDITIONS FOR LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL AND GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS
   IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
   APPEARS TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL RISK
   AREA.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/20/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT SUN JUN 20 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD
   ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
   MODERATE MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SWRN CONUS.
   
   ...NRN AZ...SRN UT...
   MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW /AROUND 30 KT AT 500
   MB...15-20 KT AT 700 MB/ IS FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS NRN AZ/SRN UT
   ON MONDAY...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN MIN RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE
   LOWER TEENS...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...CENTRAL NM...
   NAM AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/MODEST
   PWAT VALUES IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CENTRAL NM BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A STEEP
   LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK
   CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...VERY ISOLATED HIGH BASED/DRY
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE THREAT FOR
   WIDESPREAD FIRE STARTS APPEARS LIMITED ENOUGH ATTM TO PRECLUDE A
   CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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