Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 211601
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1101 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010
   
   VALID 211700Z - 221200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...WRN/CNTRL NM...FAR SERN AZ...
   MORNING GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY / REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS INDICATE MORE
   ABUNDANT MOISTURE RESIDES TO THE S OF FAR SERN AZ/SRN NM. SHORT-TERM
   FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AFTERNOON PWAT VALUES OF AROUND
   0.6-0.8 INCH WILL EXIST...ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A LOW RISK FOR
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER-TERRAIN. WITH A
   HOT/DRY AND DEEP SUB-CLOUD LAYER...THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING
   AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS WILL EXIST WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
   DEVELOP.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/21/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWWD FROM COMPACT UPPER LOW LIFTING
   NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN BAND OF
   MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW ACROSS A WARM/DRY AIRMASS OVER
   THE SWRN CONUS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
   TO RISE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME INTO PORTIONS OF SERN AZ AND
   NM...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...NRN AZ...SRN UT...NWRN NM...
   MODERATELY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
   SWRN CONUS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS UP TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN MIN
   RH VALUES RESIDING AROUND 10 PERCENT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ...WRN/CNTRL NM...FAR SERN AZ...
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR 1 INCH
   OVER SERN AZ TO 0.50-0.60 INCHES OVER CENTRAL NM. THIS MOISTURE
   COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND FAVORABLE HEATING OF
   ELEVATED TERRAIN SUGGESTS SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE AS
   WELL AS DETERMINISTIC FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE PROBABILITY FOR
   WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL BE VERY LOW.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 211736
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 PM CDT MON JUN 21 2010
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ADDED A SEE TEXT DISCUSSION AREA FOR S CNTRL CO.
   
   ...S CNTRL CO...
   A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/NRN ROCKY MTN STATES. MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW /AROUND
   50 KTS AT 500 MB/ WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED AFTERNOON
   WINDS ACROSS S CNTRL CO. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH
   /COMBINED WITH ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS/ WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/21/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT MON JUN 21 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS ON
   TUESDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL DECREASE AS POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WEAKENS
   SUBSTANTIALLY. OTHERWISE...UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
   S-CENTRAL STATES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. AS THIS
   OCCURS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE N AROUND ITS WRN
   PERIPHERY...FAVORING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF NM.
   
   ...SRN HALF OF NM...
   CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE BEST COMBINATION OF
   MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE ACROSS
   THE SRN HALF OF NM DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY FAVOR
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS ELEVATED TERRAIN HEATS UP. THOUGH A FEW
   HIGH BASED/DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
   TO BE LOW AND A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY
   ATTM.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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