Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 221559
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1059 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010
VALID 221700Z - 231200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
..ROGERS.. 06/22/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS DURING THE
LAST FEW DAYS IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AID IN
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
COLORADO. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT OVER THE S-CENTRAL STATES...WHICH WILL AID IN CONTINUED
NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG ITS WRN PERIPHERY OVER NM.
...WRN INTO S-CENTRAL CO...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER IMPULSE INITIALLY LOCATED OVER
CA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE NEWD DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...REACHING PORTIONS OF WRN COLORADO BY MID AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS
APPROACHING IMPULSE...WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-20 MPH OVER WRN
INTO S-CENTRAL CO. IN ADDITION...MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY ACROSS THE REGION /GENERALLY
15-30 PERCENT AT 06Z/...AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
AFTERNOON VALUES WILL FALL FURTHER TOWARD 10 PERCENT. AS A
RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY.
...CENTRAL NM...
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING NWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF NM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WRN
EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE MAY BE ERODED BY DRY W-SWLY FLOW...BUT HIGHER
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE OVER THE STRONGLY HEATED ELEVATED TERRAIN. THOUGH A DRY
THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR...COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT A
CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 221745
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
ADDED A SEE TEXT DISCUSSION AREA FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM
AND S CNTRL CO.
...HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM/S CNTRL CO...
MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM AND S
CNTRL CO...INCLUDING THE SACRAMENTO AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN
RANGES. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES OF AROUND
0.7-0.9 INCH WILL EXIST AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED INTO
THE REGION FROM THE S AND E. THE PRESENCE OF A DRY-SUB CLOUD LAYER
WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...WITH A
THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL DECREASE WITH WWD EXTENT...WITH
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING VERY ISOLATED IN WRN NM.
..ROGERS.. 06/22/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH ENTERS THE PAC NW...AND A SECOND
DISTURBANCE EXITS TO ITS E ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS
UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS...WHERE WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PERSIST. ELSEWHERE...MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL EXPAND ACROSS W
TX...SUPPORTING A WWD SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS OF NM.
...NEW MEXICO...
ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER ERN NM
ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING MOISTURE WWD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF NM...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST...FAVORING LARGER PRECIPITATION RATES. FARTHER W
TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...A DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER WOULD
TEND TO SUPPORT HIGH BASED/DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...