Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 221559
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1059 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010
   
   VALID 221700Z - 231200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/22/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE WRN CONUS DURING THE
   LAST FEW DAYS IS FORECAST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL AID IN
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
   COLORADO. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BECOME MORE
   PROMINENT OVER THE S-CENTRAL STATES...WHICH WILL AID IN CONTINUED
   NWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG ITS WRN PERIPHERY OVER NM.
   
   ...WRN INTO S-CENTRAL CO...
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES UPPER IMPULSE INITIALLY LOCATED OVER
   CA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY MOVE NEWD DURING THE REMAINDER
   OF THE DAY...REACHING PORTIONS OF WRN COLORADO BY MID AFTERNOON.
   LOW-LEVEL SWLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS
   APPROACHING IMPULSE...WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-20 MPH OVER WRN
   INTO S-CENTRAL CO. IN ADDITION...MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   INDICATE POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY ACROSS THE REGION /GENERALLY
   15-30 PERCENT AT 06Z/...AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   AFTERNOON VALUES WILL FALL FURTHER TOWARD 10 PERCENT. AS A
   RESULT...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY.
   
   ...CENTRAL NM...
   EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
   MOVING NWD INTO THE SRN HALF OF NM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WRN
   EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE MAY BE ERODED BY DRY W-SWLY FLOW...BUT HIGHER
   VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DURING THE
   MID-LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO
   DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   POSSIBLE OVER THE STRONGLY HEATED ELEVATED TERRAIN. THOUGH A DRY
   THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR...COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO SUPPORT A
   CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 221745
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ADDED A SEE TEXT DISCUSSION AREA FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM
   AND S CNTRL CO.
   
   ...HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM/S CNTRL CO...
   MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...COMBINED WITH STRONG
   DAYTIME HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM AND S
   CNTRL CO...INCLUDING THE SACRAMENTO AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN
   RANGES. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES OF AROUND
   0.7-0.9 INCH WILL EXIST AS MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED INTO
   THE REGION FROM THE S AND E. THE PRESENCE OF A DRY-SUB CLOUD LAYER
   WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND...WITH A
   THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
   MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL DECREASE WITH WWD EXTENT...WITH
   COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING VERY ISOLATED IN WRN NM.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/22/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH ENTERS THE PAC NW...AND A SECOND
   DISTURBANCE EXITS TO ITS E ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS
   UPPER HEIGHT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
   ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS...WHERE WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
   PERSIST. ELSEWHERE...MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL EXPAND ACROSS W
   TX...SUPPORTING A WWD SURGE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE CENTRAL
   MOUNTAINS OF NM.
   
   ...NEW MEXICO...
   ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER ERN NM
   ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL AID IN TRANSPORTING MOISTURE WWD TOWARD
   THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
   HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
   OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF NM...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
   WILL BE GREATEST...FAVORING LARGER PRECIPITATION RATES. FARTHER W
   TOWARD CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE...A DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYER WOULD
   TEND TO SUPPORT HIGH BASED/DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...BUT THIS
   ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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