Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 231608
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010
   
   VALID 231700Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM/S CNTRL CO...
   MORNING VAPOR/GOES PWAT IMAGERY REVEAL A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
   SITUATED ACROSS MUCH OF NM...WITH A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT TOWARDS
   THE NW WHERE DRIER AIR EXISTS OVER CO/NWRN NM/MOST OF AZ. THIS
   GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON AS MODERATE
   MID-LEVEL SWLY/WLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER CO/AZ. AS ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
   GREAT BASIN...A STRONG UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW SHOULD RESULT
   IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
   SACRAMENTO/SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGES. 
   
   OBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS/OBSERVATIONS FROM 16Z REVEAL RATHER MOIST
   LOW-LEVELS EXIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN NM...AND EVEN INTO
   THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS OF CNTRL NM /WHERE MID-UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS
   EXIST/. THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOMEWHAT
   MITIGATED BY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT OVER CNTRL NM...BUT A
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL STILL EXIST. DRIER
   LOW-LEVELS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF N CNTRL NM AND S CNTRL CO
   WILL YIELD A GREATER THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING IN THE VICINITY OF
   THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
   BE SOMEWHAT LOWER. 
   
   FARTHER W...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER SWRN AND S CNTRL NM IS
   EXPECTED TO BE LOWER...BUT WITH DRIER SUB-CLOUD LAYERS...ANY
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL POSE A GREATER THREAT FOR DRY
   LIGHTNING.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/23/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON TUESDAY
   WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
   WEDNESDAY...WITH A RIDGE AMPLIFYING IN ITS WAKE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   WRN CONUS. SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE
   GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL EXTEND SWWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
   BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS THIS TAKES
   PLACE...SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ELY ACROSS ERN NEW
   MEXICO...AIDING IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
   REGION...WHILE PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES MOVING NWD
   ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SRN
   STATES.
   
   ...HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM/S CNTRL CO...
   GPS DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
   DEPICT VALUES AOA 1 INCH OVER MUCH OF TX...AND MODEL FORECAST DATA
   INDICATES THIS MOISTURE WILL SURGE WWD INTO ERN NM THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ELY ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
   MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
   ALONG AND S OF STALLED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. GIVEN RELATIVELY MOIST
   FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES AND FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL CAPE...THESE
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE PRECIPITATION RATES.
   HOWEVER...DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ALONG THE WRN
   EDGE OF THE MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF NM NWD INTO
   S-CENTRAL CO...WHICH MAY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK UPPER IMPULSE LIFTS NWD INTO THE REGION.
   ATTM...THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A
   CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 231831
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0131 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2010
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...WITH NO CHANGES
   REQUIRED.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/23/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT WED JUN 23 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WEAK RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY
   AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST. AS THIS
   TAKES PLACE...MODERATE SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
   DOWNSTREAM FROM THE TROUGH ACROSS A HOT/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER
   THE GREAT BASIN.  FARTHER E...DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
   OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE ELY LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL AID
   IN CONTINUED WWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS MUCH OF NM.
   
   ...WRN-SRN UT...NRN AZ...
   MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
   AHEAD OF APPROACHING PAC TROUGH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
   AID IN STRENGTHENING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS UP TO 15-20 MPH. HOT/DEEPLY
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE AS FLOW INCREASES...WITH MIN
   RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS A RESULT...NEAR TO
   LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...WRN-SRN CO...WRN NM...SERN AZ...
   HIGHER PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING W-NW AROUND THE
   WRN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WHICH WILL AID IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FROM PORTIONS OF CO SWD
   INTO NM AND SERN AZ. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ISOLATED HIGH
   BASED/DRY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /GIVEN DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER/ AS
   ELEVATED TERRAIN BECOMES STRONGLY HEATED DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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