Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 241637
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2010
VALID 241700Z - 251200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...WRN-SRN UT...NRN AZ...
PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE NRN CA COAST /PER RECENT
VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EWD. MORNING SLC/LKN
RAOBS INDICATE MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 25-30 KTS AT 500
MB/...AND STEEP LOWER TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY EXIST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF
A VERY DEEP/UNSTABLE/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH/GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH STILL APPEAR
LIKELY TO DEVELOP...WITH NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN/SRN UT INTO NRN AZ.
...ERN AZ...WRN NM...SRN CO...
LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NNWWD INTO ERN AZ PER
GOES PWAT IMAGERY/MORNING SFC OBSERVATIONS. SHORT-TERM MODEL
FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES OF 0.8-1 INCH WILL
EXTEND ACROSS SERN AZ AND INTO MUCH OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF NM.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVER SERN AZ MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP TO WARRANT ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT
IN A THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER MTN RANGES IN
ERN AZ AND WRN NM /NEAR THE PWAT/MOISTURE GRADIENT/. MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE MAY MITIGATE THE DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT SOMEWHAT OVER
CNTRL/SRN NM...AS HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES ARE MORE LIKELY.
..ROGERS.. 06/24/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY AS TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS THE PAC COAST. AS THIS
TAKES PLACE...MID-LEVEL FLOW E OF THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A WARM/DRY AIRMASS OVER THE SWRN STATES
NWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE...W-NW MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NM...AIDING IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.
...WRN-SRN UT...NRN AZ...
SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO 15-20 MPH AS PAC TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...FAVORING MIN RH VALUES AOB 10
PERCENT. AS A RESULT...NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...ERN AZ...WRN NM...SRN CO...
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE S-CENTRAL CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO AID W-NW MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS NM. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE IN THE 40S AND
50S F...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
THIS MOISTURE...IN ADDITION TO GREATER ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...MAY LIMIT DRY THUNDER POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF NM.
HOWEVER...DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES ALONG THE WRN AND NRN
PERIPHERY OF HIGHEST STORM CONCENTRATION /I.E. ERN AZ AND SRN CO/
MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW HIGH BASED/DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 241838
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0138 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...SRN UT...NRN AZ...
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING SSWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NRN AZ AND SRN UT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PAC
UPPER TROUGH. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER TO FORM...WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY
EXIST.
..ROGERS.. 06/24/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
PAC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER CA ON
FRIDAY...LEADING TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS A
HOT/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE SWRN STATES NWD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN. OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL-SRN ROCKIES.
...SRN UT...NRN AZ...
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE /AROUND 25 KT AT
700 MB/ AS PAC TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD TOWARD THE REGION. AS
A RESULT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 20
MPH AT TIMES OVER SRN UT AND NRN AZ. IN ADDITION...HOT TEMPERATURES
AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON RH VALUES AOB
10 PERCENT. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND AN UPGRADE MAY BE NECESSARY IN FUTURE
OUTLOOKS IF LONGER DURATION OF CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS BECOMES
APPARENT.
...ERN AZ...WRN NM...SRN CO...
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SRN CO SWWD INTO
WRN NM/ERN AZ ON FRIDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
OVER STRONGLY HEATED ELEVATED TERRAIN. HOWEVER...COVERAGE DOES NOT
APPEAR SUFFICIENT ATTM TO WARRANT A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...