Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 241637
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2010
   
   VALID 241700Z - 251200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...WRN-SRN UT...NRN AZ...
   PACIFIC TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE NRN CA COAST /PER RECENT
   VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION EWD. MORNING SLC/LKN
   RAOBS INDICATE MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW /AROUND 25-30 KTS AT 500
   MB/...AND STEEP LOWER TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALREADY EXIST ACROSS
   THE GREAT BASIN. STRONG HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE FORMATION OF
   A VERY DEEP/UNSTABLE/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON.
   SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH/GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH STILL APPEAR
   LIKELY TO DEVELOP...WITH NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN/SRN UT INTO NRN AZ.
   
   ...ERN AZ...WRN NM...SRN CO...
   LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NNWWD INTO ERN AZ PER
   GOES PWAT IMAGERY/MORNING SFC OBSERVATIONS. SHORT-TERM MODEL
   FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES OF 0.8-1 INCH WILL
   EXTEND ACROSS SERN AZ AND INTO MUCH OF THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF NM.
   DEBRIS CLOUDINESS OVER SERN AZ MAY DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE LOWER
   ATMOSPHERE HEATS UP TO WARRANT ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT
   IN A THREAT FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY OVER MTN RANGES IN
   ERN AZ AND WRN NM /NEAR THE PWAT/MOISTURE GRADIENT/. MORE ABUNDANT
   MOISTURE MAY MITIGATE THE DRY THUNDERSTORM THREAT SOMEWHAT OVER
   CNTRL/SRN NM...AS HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES ARE MORE LIKELY.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/24/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK
   DOWN ON THURSDAY AS TROUGH MOVES E ACROSS THE PAC COAST. AS THIS
   TAKES PLACE...MID-LEVEL FLOW E OF THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
   DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A WARM/DRY AIRMASS OVER THE SWRN STATES
   NWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE...W-NW MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NM...AIDING IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT.
   
   ...WRN-SRN UT...NRN AZ...
   SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON
   TO 15-20 MPH AS PAC TROUGH MOVES EWD TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES
   WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...FAVORING MIN RH VALUES AOB 10
   PERCENT. AS A RESULT...NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...ERN AZ...WRN NM...SRN CO...
   MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE S-CENTRAL CONUS WILL
   CONTINUE TO AID W-NW MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS NM. MODEL FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE IN THE 40S AND
   50S F...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
   THIS MOISTURE...IN ADDITION TO GREATER ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE...MAY LIMIT DRY THUNDER POTENTIAL OVER MUCH OF NM.
   HOWEVER...DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES ALONG THE WRN AND NRN
   PERIPHERY OF HIGHEST STORM CONCENTRATION /I.E. ERN AZ AND SRN CO/
   MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW HIGH BASED/DRY THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 241838
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0138 PM CDT THU JUN 24 2010
   
   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...SRN UT...NRN AZ...
   FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING SSWLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NRN AZ AND SRN UT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PAC
   UPPER TROUGH. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
   STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER TO FORM...WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AS A RESULT...AN
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
   CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY
   EXIST.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 06/24/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT THU JUN 24 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   PAC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER CA ON
   FRIDAY...LEADING TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS A
   HOT/DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS OVER THE SWRN STATES NWD INTO THE GREAT
   BASIN. OTHERWISE...FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL-SRN ROCKIES.
   
   ...SRN UT...NRN AZ...
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE /AROUND 25 KT AT
   700 MB/ AS PAC TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EWD TOWARD THE REGION. AS
   A RESULT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 20
   MPH AT TIMES OVER SRN UT AND NRN AZ. IN ADDITION...HOT TEMPERATURES
   AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON RH VALUES AOB
   10 PERCENT. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND AN UPGRADE MAY BE NECESSARY IN FUTURE
   OUTLOOKS IF LONGER DURATION OF CRITICAL WIND SPEEDS BECOMES
   APPARENT.
   
   ...ERN AZ...WRN NM...SRN CO...
   ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SRN CO SWWD INTO
   WRN NM/ERN AZ ON FRIDAY AS STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPS
   OVER STRONGLY HEATED ELEVATED TERRAIN. HOWEVER...COVERAGE DOES NOT
   APPEAR SUFFICIENT ATTM TO WARRANT A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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