Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 281623
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
   
   VALID 281700Z - 291200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...FOUR CORNERS AREA...MOGOLLON RIM IN CNTRL AZ...SERN AZ...
   RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED 12Z 250 MB
   CHART PLACED A NEARLY-STATIONARY LOW OVER E-CNTRL/NERN AZ. MORNING
   MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EWD...WHILE
   LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION SPREADS SLOWLY
   WWD. THE COMBINATION OF WEAKLY FORCED ASCENT FROM THE LOW AND
   DIURNALLY-DRIVEN OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. 16Z GPS AND 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATE
   PW VALUES AROUND A HALF-INCH INVOF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE FOUR
   CORNERS THROUGH CNTRL/SERN AZ. LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING
   LAYER SUGGESTS PULSE TSTMS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN ANCHORED TO HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND RESULT IN MIXED DRY/WET TSTMS.
   
   ...W-CNTRL NV...
   12Z NAM AND LATEST WRF-NSSL/NMM AND HRRR FORECASTS REMAIN INSISTENT
   THAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING ALONG THE LEE OF THE SIERRA NV MTNS INTO CNTRL NV. ALTHOUGH
   A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PW VALUES HAS BEEN NOTED IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA
   DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER
   MODEST WITH JUST A GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
   THE NERN PACIFIC. TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED WHERE
   GREATER FUEL RECEPTIVITY FOR IGNITION EXISTS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/28/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
   EWD...DRIVING A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE SEWD. WIDESPREAD
   SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM.
   
   FARTHER W...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE ROCKIES.
   HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE
   WEST. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM
   NRN AZ INTO SRN UT AND MUCH OF NV.
   
   ...S-CNTRL/SERN UT...NRN/ERN AZ...
   MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS WWD TODAY.
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN OVER MUCH OF NM/CO. ON THE WRN
   EDGE OF GREATER MOISTURE...DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN
   NRN/ERN AZ...AND PORTIONS OF UT. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND NO UPPER
   FORCING MECHANISM...STORMS WILL PRIMARILY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND
   NEARLY STATIONARY IN MOVEMENT.
   
   ...MUCH OF NV...
   WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER W CNTRL NV...LIKELY
   DUE TO CONVECTION THAT ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.
   LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO
   DRY THUNDERSTORM FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER MUCH OF NV.
   SIMILAR TO PORTIONS OF AZ/UT...LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND FLOW
   ALOFT WILL LEAD TO NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS THAT ARE PRIMARILY
   INDUCED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 281935
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010
   
   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL NV...
   LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON ON TUE. LOW/MID-LEVEL SLYS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
   WITHIN A WEAKLY CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH SHIFTING EWD TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA. A VERY
   DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
   AROUND 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS PRIMARILY ACROSS NYE COUNTY. THIS WILL
   BE JUXTAPOSED WITH RH VALUES OF 6 TO 10 PERCENT.
   
   ...MOST OF AZ/UT...
   SUFFICIENT LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL SPREAD
   N/WWD IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING E INTO THE
   PACIFIC NW AND A RIDGE REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP
   OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TUE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY BEING
   DRY ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTENING PLUME. WEAK FLOW ALOFT
   AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL MITIGATE A MORE
   ROBUST DRY TSTM THREAT WHERE FUELS ARE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO IGNITION
   ACROSS SRN UT INTO AZ.
   
   ...NRN NV...FAR NRN UT...SRN ID...
   THIS REGION WILL LIE ON THE NRN EXTENT OF THE VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS
   OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND ON THE SRN EXTENT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL
   SWLYS/FORCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH. ISOLATED
   TO SCATTERED DRY TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
   MODERATE STORM MOTION SUPPORTING MINIMAL RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE
   OVERALL THREAT WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED BY MARGINAL FUEL DRYNESS PER
   LATEST PREDICTIVE SERVICES OUTLOOKS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/28/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0323 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW PROGRESSION INTO THE
   WEST...WHILE UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EWD OVER THE CENTRAL STATES.
   MEANWHILE IN THE EAST...AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD
   THROUGH QUEBEC.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WWD AND NWD INTO PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHWEST...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
   OF AZ/UT/NV. STRONG WINDS MAY ALIGN WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
   OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
   
   ...NEVADA...
   AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD...SMALL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL
   AFFECT THE WEST. CURRENT DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER
   DISTURBANCE...POSSIBLY REMNANTS FROM THE FEATURE ON WV IMAGERY OVER
   CNTRL AZ INTO NM...WILL ROTATE WWD THEN NEWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
   THE UPPER HIGH TO THE E...REACHING CNTRL NV BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
   THIS MAY ENHANCE SURFACE WINDS OVER CNTRL NV...THOUGH ATTM SUSTAINED
   SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 15 TO 20 MPH...WITH WEAK GUSTS. THIS
   UPPER DISTURBANCE...IN ADDITION TO WWD/NWD SHIFT OF MID LEVEL
   MOISTURE...MAY ALSO LEAD TO DRY THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
   ISOLATED. DETERMINISTIC QPF FIELDS AND FORECAST INSTABILITY INDICATE
   THIS COULD OCCUR INTO FAR NRN NV. THOUGH THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR N
   OF HERE INTO ID...FORECAST PWAT WOULD INDICATE THAT WET
   THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY N OF THE BORDER.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home