Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

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   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 301657
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
   
   VALID 301700Z - 011200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E-CNTRL/SRN NV...FAR W-CNTRL UT...
   
   ...E-CNTRL/SRN NV...FAR W-CNTRL UT...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGE TO CRITICAL AREA
   DELINEATION.
   
   ...CNTRL/NRN AZ...S-CNTRL UT...
   ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE
   AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT FLOW THROUGH
   THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL RESULT IN PULSE/SLOW-MOVING INDIVIDUAL
   CELLS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH PW VALUES CURRENTLY FROM 0.60 TO 0.75
   INCHES /PER 12Z RAOBS AND 16Z GPS DATA/...OVERALL DRY TSTM POTENTIAL
   SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY MARGINAL COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS.
   
   ...UPPER MID ATLANTIC...
   A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT IS CURRENTLY UNFOLDING WITH 16Z
   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES IN THE 30S.
   FURTHER HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MIN RH VALUES IN THE 20S BY
   MID-AFTERNOON. MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL HOLD SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BUT STRONGER GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH WILL REMAIN
   PROBABLE.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/30/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY
   STATIONARY. HOWEVER...IN DEEP SWLY FLOW...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   PROGRESS EWD...WITH DRYING OCCURRING BEHIND THIS OVER MUCH OF
   NV...WRN AZ...AND WRN UT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN IN CNTRL/NRN AZ AND PORTIONS OF
   UT...WHILE CRITICAL CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THIS IN E CNTRL/SRN NV
   AND FAR W CNTRL UT.
   
   MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
   ROCKIES...STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN WRN SD/NEB
   AND ERN CO...RAINFALL THIS SPRING/SUMMER HAS LED TO UNFAVORABLE
   FUELS FOR FIRE STARTS.
   
   FARTHER E...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. A
   DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW...WITH MARGINALLY CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER MID-ATLANTIC.
   
   ...E-CNTRL/SRN NV...FAR W-CNTRL UT...
   A DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND 06Z OBS SHOW
   VERY LITTLE RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
   GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH DEEP
   MIXING LEADING TO VALUES NEAR 4 TO 10 PERCENT THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING. MIXING HEIGHTS NEAR 12-14 KFT WILL PROMOTE
   SUSTAINED WINDS AT THE SURFACE NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH...THOUGH STRONGEST
   WINDS WILL RESIDE ABOVE THESE MIXING HEIGHT LEVELS...AND WILL LIMIT
   OVERALL STRENGTH OF GUSTS THAT CAN REACH THE SURFACE.
   
   ...CNTRL/NRN AZ...S-CNTRL UT...
   MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD/NEWD IN ADVANCE OF
   THE NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. 07Z WV
   IMAGERY SHOWS A LINGERING UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM WRN MT SWWD INTO
   WRN/N CNTRL NV. THIS SHOULD PROGRESS EWD TODAY...LEADING TO A
   GREATER THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER UT. MEANWHILE A SEPARATE
   DISTURBANCE OVER NERN AZ/S CNTRL UT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
   TODAY...PROVIDING WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. GREATEST THREAT OF
   DRY THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM CNTRL/NRN AZ INTO S-CNTRL
   UT...WITH PWAT GENERALLY SUPPORTING WET THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N AND E
   OF THESE AREAS.
   
   ...UPPER MID ATLANTIC...
   DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WILL DOMINATE IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND
   NORTHEAST TODAY IN WLY WINDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MARGINALLY CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY ACROSS MD NWD INTO SERN NY/LONG ISLAND WHERE
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S/LOWER 30S AS TEMPERATURES
   WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. SUSTAINED WLY SURFACE WINDS
   NEAR 15 MPH CAN BE ANTICIPATED...WITH STRONGER GUSTS SOMEWHAT
   LIMITED BY LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 301908
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010
   
   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN/E-CNTRL NV AND W-CNTRL UT...
   
   ...SRN/E-CNTRL NV AND W-CNTRL UT...
   LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT A BELT OF MODERATE
   MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW /AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BE
   MAINTAINED ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN INTO THU. DEEP VERTICAL
   MIXING WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS REACHING 2O TO 25 MPH
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL REMAIN JUXTAPOSED WITH A VERY
   DRY/WARM AIR MASS...RH VALUES OF 5 TO 10 PERCENT.
   
   ...MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ON TRACK WITH MARGINALLY LOW RH AND
   MODEST NWLY WINDS EXPECTED THU AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE MID
   ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN FROM ERN VA TO LONG ISLAND/SERN NY.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 06/30/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0319 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE
   COAST BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND OVERNIGHT. MODEST SWLY FLOW WILL LEAD
   TO ENHANCED FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ONCE AGAIN AS A
   DRY AIR MASS LINGERS. MEANWHILE...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
   BEGIN TO MAKE A WWD/NWD SHIFT ONCE AGAIN...WITH ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS IN NRN AZ AND SRN/W-CNTRL
   UT. 
   
   MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL PROGRESS EWD...MOVING
   OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS
   WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE UPPER MID ATLANTIC IN ITS WAKE.
   
   ...SRN/CNTRL NV AND W-CNTRL UT...
   MODEST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
   AREA. EXPECT LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES /IN THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS NV
   TO LOWER 30S IN WRN UT/ AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH VALUES
   FALLING TO AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS MIXING
   OCCURS...EXPECT SUSTAINED SLY/SWLY WINDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH ONCE
   AGAIN.
   
   ...UPPER MID ATLANTIC...
   FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NWLY AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO EXIT
   THE COAST...BRINGING A COOLER BUT STILL DRY AIR MASS TO THE UPPER
   MID ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS NRN VA INTO SERN NY
   AND LONG ISLAND. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH CAN BE
   ANTICIPATED...WITH STRONGER GUSTS ONCE AGAIN LIMITED BY RELATIVELY
   LOW MIXING HEIGHTS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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