Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 111611
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2010
   
   VALID 111700Z - 121200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E CNTRL NV...W CNTRL UT...
   
   THE CRITICAL AREA FOR E CNTRL NV AND WRN UT HAS BEEN EXPANDED
   SLIGHTLY NEWD. A SEE TEXT AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO ERN WY/SWRN SD.
   
   ...E CNTRL NV...WRN UT...
   STRONG WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   REGION IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A
   CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER ORE. THE 12Z KSLC RAOB REVEALS STEEP LAPSE
   RATES EXTENDING TO AROUND 12 THSD FT AGL...WITH MEAN FLOW IN THIS
   LAYER AROUND 30 KTS. AS A RESULT...SFC WINDS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN
   RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS
   TO 45 MPH EXPECTED. STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR UPSTREAM
   /OVER ERN NV/ MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH
   VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. THE CRITICAL AREA
   HAS BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY NEWD INTO THE SALT LAKE VALLEY AS
   CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER CRITICAL RH/WIND THRESHOLDS WILL BE MET THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CNTRL AND SWRN WY...
   STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
   SUSTAINED SFC WINDS AOA 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
   NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR...BUT RH
   VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BECOME MARGINALLY LOW THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THE DURATION OF COMBINED
   WINDS/LOW RH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE.
   
   ...ERN WY....SWRN SD...
   STRONG HEATING/MIXING AS A RESULT OF INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
   LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15-20 MPH/GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP AS AN
   UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHES THE REGION.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 08/11/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD TOWARD CNTRL ID ON
   WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SMALLER SCALE IMPULSE EJECTS EWD ACROSS THE
   GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONG SWLY
   UPPER JET STREAK WILL DEVELOP OVER NV/UT/WY...AIDING IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS.
   
   ...E CNTRL NV...W CNTRL UT...
   A 90 KT SWLY UPPER JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS E CNTRL
   NV AND W CNTRL UT THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AOA 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. IN
   ADDITION...POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON VALUES
   AOB 10 PERCENT AS DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING TAKES
   PLACE. AS A RESULT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY.
   
   
   ...CNTRL AND SWRN WY...
   90 KT UPPER JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH CNTRL WY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SURFACE WIND SPEEDS AOA 20 MPH
   WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH. LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL WAIT TO UPGRADE UNTIL CONFIDENCE
   INCREASES IN THE LOCATION OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES.
   
   ...SERN ID INTO N CNTRL WY AND S CNTRL MT...
   AS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
   BASIN DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO
   PUNCH INTO WY. MEANWHILE...COMBINATION OF INCREASING ASCENT AND
   DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE DRY SLOT WILL FAVOR
   AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. STORMS DEVELOPING IN CLOSE
   PROXIMITY TO THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL OCCUR WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES/LOW RH VALUES...DEEPLY
   MIXED SUB-CLOUD LAYER...AND FAST MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH WILL
   SUPPORT RAPID STORM MOTIONS. AS A RESULT...DRY THUNDER POTENTIAL
   EXISTS OVER THE AREA...THOUGH COVERAGE DOES NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT AN
   OUTLOOK UPGRADE ATTM.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 111845
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010
   
   VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S-CNTRL WY...
   
   SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED CRITICAL AREA OVER
   S-CNTRL WY. A SEE TEXT AREA HAS BEEN ADDED TO S-CNTRL UT.
   
   ...S-CNTRL WY...
   LATEST FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS WILL BE AOA CRITICAL THRESHOLDS /SWLY WINDS OF 20 MPH AND
   GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH/ ACROSS MUCH OF S-CNTRL WY. THE ONLY
   MODIFICATIONS TO THE INHERITED CRITICAL AREA WERE TO REMOVE PORTIONS
   OF SWRN WY /WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
   POST-FRONTAL/...AND TO REMOVE PORTIONS OF THE ROCKY MTNS IN S-CNTRL
   WY /WHERE RH WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE 15 PERCENT/.
   
   ...S-CNTRL UT...
   A ZONE OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
   REGION AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH. WLY SFC WINDS AROUND
   15-20 MPH WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR IN FROM THE WEST...WITH AFTERNOON RH
   DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 08/11/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE CNTRL
   ROCKIES ON THURSDAY...AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 60+ KT W-SWLY
   UPPER JET CENTERED OVER UT AND SPREADING DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
   OVER THE NRN PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A SWWD TRAILING COLD
   FRONT EVENTUALLY BECOMING POSITIONED OVER WY IN A NE TO SW
   ORIENTATION.
   
   ...S-CNTRL AND SWRN WY...
   STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF S-CNTRL AND
   SWRN WY ON THURSDAY...CHARACTERIZED BY W-SWLY 700 MB WIND SPEEDS UP
   TO 25 KT. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT CRITICALLY SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS OUT OF THE SW ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40
   MPH...WITH WINDS LIKELY SHIFTING TO NWLY DURING THE EVENING AS A
   FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
   THAT A SUFFICIENTLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
   AREA...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT. AS A
   RESULT...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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