Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 121608
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010
   
   VALID 121700Z - 131200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR S-CNTRL WY...
   
   THE EXISTING CRITICAL AREA OVER S-CNTRL WY HAS BEEN EXPANDED
   SLIGHTLY NEWD. THE SEE TEXT AREA OVER S-CNTRL UT HAS BEEN EXPANDED
   TO INCLUDE FAR NRN AZ.
   
   ...S-CNTRL WY...
   MORNING SFC OBS INDICATE SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE
   ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL WY. WITH ADDITIONAL
   DAYTIME HEATING...RH WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID TEENS...RESULTING
   IN CRITICAL CONDITIONS. A SLIGHT EXPANSION NEWD HAS BEEN MADE TO THE
   EXISTING CRITICAL AREA...AS LATEST OBS/SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
   INDICATES STRONG WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD
   OF A SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
   
   ...S-CNTRL UT...FAR NRN AZ...
   MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN AZ/SRN UT
   THIS MORNING...CHARACTERIZED BY SWLY WINDS OF 30-40 KTS IN THE
   700-500 MB LAYER PER THE 12Z KFGZ SOUNDING. AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP
   INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
   RESULT IN INCREASING SFC WINDS WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15-20
   MPH /HIGHER GUSTS/. WITH AFTERNOON RH EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
   UPPER SINGLE DIGITS...NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS
   MAY OCCUR FOR PERIODS OF TIME.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 08/12/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0240 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
   NRN ROCKIES DURING THURSDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   70+ KT UPPER JET STREAK POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
   ROCKIES...FAVORING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE
   SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NRN
   PLAINS...WITH A SWWD EXTENDING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CNTRL WY AND
   NRN UT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ...S-CNTRL WY...
   SEASONABLY STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS /20-30 KT AT 700
   MB...40 KT AT 500 MB/ ARE FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER S-CNTRL WY DURING
   THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. AS A
   RESULT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS UP TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 MPH
   ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS MODERATELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
   TAKES PLACE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL
   FALL TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT.
   GIVEN THESE FACTORS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
   
   
   ...S-CNTRL UT...
   WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MOVING OVER PORTIONS
   OF THE GREAT BASIN...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A VERY DRY AIR
   MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...FAVORING RH
   VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT. THUS...NEAR TO OCCASIONALLY CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 121733
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010
   
   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK ARE REQUIRED.
   
   ..ROGERS.. 08/12/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0245 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EJECT EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
   PLAINS ON FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL
   DROP SWD INTO THE NWRN CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE IN
   THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...LEADING TO E-NELY
   OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE INTRODUCTION OF A DRIER AIR MASS OVER PORTIONS
   OF WRN WA/ORE.
   
   ...WRN WA/ORE...
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES E-NELY SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT
   AROUND 5-15 KT WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF WRN WA AND ORE DURING
   FRIDAY. OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THIS FLOW REGIME MAY ENHANCE DRIER RH
   VALUES /GUIDANCE CURRENTLY RANGES FROM 20-40 PERCENT/.
   HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL AND QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS ARE
   OBSERVED OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL LIKELY MITIGATE A MORE
   SIGNIFICANT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SCENARIO.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home