Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 131558
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1058 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010
   
   VALID 131700Z - 141200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/13/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...LEADING TO
   DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH FROM FAR NRN CA
   ALONG THE ORE COAST AND INTO SWRN WA. 
   
   MEANWHILE...SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE AROUND A SLOW SLY
   MOVING TROUGH IN THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
   WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE SWD AND EWD TO NEAR THE
   DAKOTAS/MN BORDER THEN EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH WRN NEB...THEN WWD TO
   THE ID/UT BORDER BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. VERY LOCALIZED CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT IN S CNTRL WY WITH 20
   MPH WLY WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS...BUT WILL BE TOO
   LOCALIZED TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME.
   
   ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTHWEST...GREAT
   BASIN...AND SRN ROCKIES THOUGH WITH LIGHT WINDS. HUMID CONDITIONS
   WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY...WITH NO
   CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
   
   ...WRN WA/ORE...
   07Z WV IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD OFF THE
   PACIFIC COAST...WITH NLY FLOW ALOFT BEING REINFORCED BY A SWD MOVING
   UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE WA/ID/MT AND CANADIAN BORDER. OFFSHORE/NNELY
   WINDS ARE ALREADY REFLECTED IN SURFACE DATA AND VAD WIND
   PROFILES...WHILE 00Z MEDFORD SOUNDING SHOWS DEEP NLY/NELY WIND
   PROFILES AND DRY AIR /0.35 INCH PWAT/ AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF
   UPPER RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE AND DOWNSLOPE/OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO
   ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A DEVELOPING THERMAL TROUGH FOR THE
   COAST THAT WILL REINFORCE NELY WINDS...THOUGH SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE
   GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
   FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES WHERE SPEEDS MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF ORE...WHILE
   VALUES IN THE 20S WILL BE MORE LIKELY FARTHER N IN WA.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 131827
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK...NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES NEEDED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/13/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0352 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...WHILE A
   WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE DRIFTS NEWD INTO NRN CA/SRN ORE. HOT AND DRY
   CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEST...WHILE THE UPPER
   DISTURBANCE MAY INDUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN CA...SWRN AND
   S CNTRL ORE. 
   
   MEANWHILE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH
   THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
   COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE EXTENDING THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES
   SWWD INTO OK BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN
   ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIMIT THE THREAT
   OF FIRE STARTS/SPREAD. IN THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...THOUGH LITTLE
   PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
   
   ...NRN CA/WRN ORE/SWRN WA...
   STRONG UPPER RIDGING ALONG OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN
   LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SEE TEXT AREA...WITH A
   THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM NERN CA INTO THE CASCADES AND SWRN
   WA. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL BE MORE PREDOMINANT
   ACROSS NWRN ORE/SWRN WA THAN FARTHER S. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY FALL
   INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S IN THESE AREAS. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL
   GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 MPH...THOUGH LOCALIZED GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE
   IN FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES.
   
   MEANWHILE...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OFF THE CA
   COAST WILL DRIFT NEWD...REACHING THE NRN CA COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   VERY WEAK INSTABILITY AND UPPER SUPPORT MAY ALLOW CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CA...SWRN AND S CNTRL ORE...WITH A
   FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW
   PWAT NEAR 0.75 TO 1 INCH WHICH WOULD FAVOR WET THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
   THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST OF A MOISTURE INCREASE GIVEN RECENT
   OFFSHORE WINDS AND DRY AIR MASS...AND NOTABLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR ON
   WV IMAGERY PROGRESSING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER WAVE.
   THEREFORE...LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS THAT
   CAN DEVELOP.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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