Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 171623
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2010
   
   VALID 171700Z - 181200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL/NERN ORE...FAR NRN CA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR NERN CA/NWRN NV...
   
   ...CNTRL/NERN ORE...FAR NRN CA...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING WELL ON TRACK WITH MINIMAL CHANGE MADE
   TO CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION. ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF THE
   SWRN ORE COAST JUST NE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE FAR
   NRN CA COAST. HI-RES WRF-NSSL/NMM FORECASTS SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION
   INLAND ALONG THE CASCADES BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH CLUSTERING OF
   ACTIVITY TO THE NE DURING THE EVENING. OVERALL SETUP SHOULD BE
   FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED DRY TSTMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING HUNDREDS OF
   STRIKES...MOST LIKELY ALONG THE LEE OF THE CASCADES IN CNTRL ORE.
   
   ...FAR NERN CA/NWRN NV...
   LATEST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECASTS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY
   GREATER WITH BOTH THE STRENGTH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND DURATION OF
   MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE SPEEDS THIS EVENING. HAVE ADDED A
   CRITICAL AREA WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT SUSTAINED W/SWLY SURFACE
   WINDS NEAR 20 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP TOWARDS EARLY EVENING...SUPPORTING
   LITTLE RH RECOVERY UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN PERSISTENT
   MODERATE DROUGHT...AN AREAL DELINEATION FOR A LOWER-END CRITICAL
   THREAT APPEARS JUSTIFIED.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/17/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW SEEN ON WV IMAGERY AS OF 06Z NEAR 40 N /130 W WILL
   PROGRESS INTO THE SWRN ORE/NRN CA COAST TODAY...THEN INTO CNTRL/ERN
   ORE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER MUCH OF NRN
   CA AND ORE IN RESPONSE...WHILE SWLY MID LEVEL AND SURFACE WINDS WILL
   INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN CA/NWRN NV. MEANWHILE...A THERMAL
   TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER N CNTRL NV...NWWD INTO SERN ORE...THEN
   ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
   
   UPPER RIDGING IN THE SRN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY BUILD WWD OVER THE
   SOUTHWEST...WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
   WWD THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO SRN CA. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF
   WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL INFLUENCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
   MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
   ATLANTIC...MITIGATING THE FIRE THREAT. MARGINALLY LOW RELATIVE
   HUMIDITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN A POST COLD FRONTAL
   ENVIRONMENT...BUT LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL MITIGATE THE
   THREAT IN THIS AREA AS WELL.
   
   ...CNTRL/NERN ORE...FAR NRN CA...
   A LIGHTNING EVENT INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
   STILL APPEARS LIKELY FOR CNTRL/NERN ORE AND FAR NRN CA AS AN UPPER
   LOW MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAVORABLY TIMED...WITH
   INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE LOW
   LEVELS WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   AFFECT COASTAL AREAS FIRST BUT WILL TEND TO BE WET...BEFORE
   DEVELOPING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVING NEWD INTO A DRIER AIR
   MASS. NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...THOUGH WITH LESS
   COVERAGE AND RECOVERING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT THE SURFACE AS
   DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS.
   
   ...NWRN NV...NERN CA...
   WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN BY THE EVENING...THOUGH
   DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY ARE FORECASTING SUSTAINED
   SPEEDS NEAR 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
   OVER HIGHER TERRAIN /GENERALLY ABOVE 4000 TO 5000 FT/...WHERE SWLY
   WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE MORE COMMON...WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL RECOVER VERY LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
   CONTINUE TO MIX DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE. GIVEN LOCALIZED THREAT OF
   STRONG WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OVER THE
   AREA...THOUGH THIS MAY BE UPGRADED TO CRITICAL IF NEEDED.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 171902
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0202 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2010
   
   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   ...PORTIONS OF CNTRL ID/SWRN MT...
   ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z/WED ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF ERN ORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN E/NEWD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE.
   A DIURNAL INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FARTHER E/NE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN ID INTO WRN
   MT. TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RICHER PW PLUME
   SHOULD TEND TO BE DRY WITH LARGE INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEW
   POINTS SPREADS /AOA 40 DEG F/. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
   ACROSS CNTRL ID INTO SWRN MT. WITH DRY TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND RELATIVELY MARGINAL FUEL CONDITIONS /GIVEN
   ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS/...A CRITICAL AREA
   DELINEATION DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
   
   ...NWRN NV TO SERN ID...
   PREVIOUS FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE
   WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH 15 MPH AT PEAK HEATING WITH DEEP MIXING OF
   MODERATE TO STRONG SWLYS ALOFT. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY LOW RH
   VALUES...LARGELY FROM 5 TO 10 PERCENT.
   
   ...COLUMBIA RIVER AREA OF S-CNTRL WA/N-CNTRL ORE...
   ALTHOUGH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL KINEMATIC PROFILE WILL BE WEAK...A
   TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WLY
   WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 TO 20 MPH ON WED. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
   JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT
   DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER
   THREAT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN POTENTIAL ISOLATED HIGH-BASED TSTMS LATE
   D1 INTO EARLY D2 POSSIBLY RESULTING IN A FEW IGNITIONS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 08/17/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0336 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL PROGRESS EWD AND
   WEAKEN OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...INFLUENCING THUNDERSTORMS
   OVER PORTIONS OF ERN ORE...NRN ID...AND WRN MT...WHILE GUSTY WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NRN NV/SRN ID.
   
   ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
   CANADIAN PROVINCES/NRN HIGH PLAINS THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
   OVERNIGHT...DRIVING A COLD FRONT SWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   OCCUR THROUGH MUCH OF THE SRN CONUS...LIMITING THE FIRE THREAT.
   CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COUNTRY.
   
   ...ERN ORE/NRN ID/WRN MT...
   WET THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
   /12Z/ ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN ORE IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD MOVING UPPER
   LOW. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM OVER
   NRN ID/WRN MT...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCREASING THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL. FORECAST PWAT NEAR .60 TO .90 INCHES
   WOULD TEND TO FAVOR WET THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE PERIPHERY OF GREATER MOISTURE
   RETURN.
   
   ...NRN NV/SRN ID...
   SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
   LOW. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK...DEEP
   MIXING MAY ALLOW SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 10 TO 15 MPH TO
   DEVELOP...WITH OCCASIONALLY STRONGER GUSTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
   MARGINAL FIRE THREAT AS TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
   LOWER 90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS
   AND LOWER TEENS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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