Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 221652
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010
VALID 221700Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF WY INTO NWRN
NE...WRN/CNTRL SD...S CNTRL ND...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL NV...
...NWRN NE...CNTRL SD...S CNTRL ND...
EXPANDED CRITICAL AREA INTO PARTS OF NWRN NE...WHERE NEAR-CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AS OF 16Z.
OTHERWISE...THINKING REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. WITH
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL
APPROACH 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THESE WINDS...TEMPS RISING TO THE 100-105F RANGE
ALONG WITH RH/S FALLING AOB 15 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS
OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. A FEW AREAS MAY APPROACH EXTREMELY CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS AT PEAK HEATING.
...CNTRL WY INTO WRN SD...
HAVE TRIMMED PART OF THE CRITICAL AREA FROM PARTS OF WRN...NRN...AND
SERN WY...SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND/RH COMBINATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY SUBCRITICAL IN THESE AREAS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL WY INTO WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON.
...CNTRL NV...
FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS LIKELY
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS RH/S FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT AND
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH. IN
ADDITION...ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NERN PARTS OF THE
CRITICAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL STORMS WOULD BE DRY...WITH AN
INCREASING TENDENCY TOWARDS WET THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
...ERN MT...WRN ND...
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THIS AREA. GREATEST RISK OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS NWLY
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A COMBINATION OF WET/DRY ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION...TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY WET BY EARLY EVENING.
...SRN ID...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING...WITH STRONG NW WINDS POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RH/S SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS...BUT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
..DEAN.. 08/22/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0404 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
PROGRESS EWD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SRN MANITOBA BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL
ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. MEANWHILE...A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY IN PLACE
OVER THE DESERT SW WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NWD AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM. WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...CNTRL NV...
STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH
WITH STRONGER GUSTS AS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF AREA MEETING CRITICAL RH CRITERIA IS IN
QUESTION...AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN A CRITICAL AREA OVER INTERIOR NV AS RH/S SHOULD DROP
TO AROUND 15 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT.
...CNTRL WY INTO WRN SD...
A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL
SUPPORT SUSTAINED SFC WINDS AOA 20 MPH DURING THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
WY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE
SW...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF CRITICAL RH CRITERIA BEING MET
WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN WY...WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN WY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE STATE AND
POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
ACROSS WRN SD...SUSTAINED SFC WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS AREAS
FURTHER WEST...BUT WILL APPROACH 20 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 100F AND
RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT...THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...CNTRL SD/ND...
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL MIX STRONGER MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE
SURFACE... WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS AOA 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY
HOT TEMPS IN THE 100F-105F RANGE AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO AOB 15
PERCENT WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HAVE OPTED TO
UPGRADE THIS AREA DESPITE MARGINAL FUEL CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE
AREA...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END TEMP/RH/WIND CONDITIONS.
...SRN ID...
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT COOLER TEMPS AND SOMEWHAT
HIGHER RH /AOA 20 PERCENT/ SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS.
...ERN MT...WRN ND...
SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH AND RH VALUES IN THE 20-25
PERCENT RANGE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY WET THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 221919
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE UPPER COLUMBIA RIVER
BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES REGIONS WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NWD THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN AND SACRAMENTO VALLEYS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME OFFSHORE N-NELY FLOW PERMEATING PORTIONS OF NRN
CA AND LEAD TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY. OVERALL FORECAST ON
TRACK...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
..SMITH.. 08/22/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0455 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AT THE START OF PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE...A
SURFACE LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NEWD AS A TRAILING COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.
COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER RH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
IN A REDUCED RISK OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS /COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS DAYS/ ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...NRN ROCKIES...AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS. GUSTY W/NW WINDS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WY AND ERN MT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
BRIEFLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR THIS PERIOD.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...