Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 221652
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010
   
   VALID 221700Z - 231200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF WY INTO NWRN
   NE...WRN/CNTRL SD...S CNTRL ND...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL NV...
   
   ...NWRN NE...CNTRL SD...S CNTRL ND...
   EXPANDED CRITICAL AREA INTO PARTS OF NWRN NE...WHERE NEAR-CRITICAL
   CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AS OF 16Z.
   OTHERWISE...THINKING REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK. WITH
   A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WILL
   APPROACH 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE. IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH THESE WINDS...TEMPS RISING TO THE 100-105F RANGE
   ALONG WITH RH/S FALLING AOB 15 PERCENT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS
   OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS. A FEW AREAS MAY APPROACH EXTREMELY CRITICAL
   THRESHOLDS AT PEAK HEATING.
   
   ...CNTRL WY INTO WRN SD...
   HAVE TRIMMED PART OF THE CRITICAL AREA FROM PARTS OF WRN...NRN...AND
   SERN WY...SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND/RH COMBINATION WILL REMAIN
   MOSTLY SUBCRITICAL IN THESE AREAS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
   LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL WY INTO WRN SD THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ...CNTRL NV...
   FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...WITH LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS LIKELY
   TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS RH/S FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT AND
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH. IN
   ADDITION...ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER NERN PARTS OF THE
   CRITICAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL STORMS WOULD BE DRY...WITH AN
   INCREASING TENDENCY TOWARDS WET THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
   
   ...ERN MT...WRN ND...
   FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THIS AREA. GREATEST RISK OF ELEVATED
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AS NWLY
   WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS
   WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT...BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   A COMBINATION OF WET/DRY ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF
   CONVECTION...TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY WET BY EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...SRN ID...
   NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING...WITH STRONG NW WINDS POSSIBLE
   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. RH/S SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ABOVE CRITICAL
   THRESHOLDS...BUT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   ..DEAN.. 08/22/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0404 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL
   PROGRESS EWD DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
   LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE NEWD INTO SRN MANITOBA BY THE END
   OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE SURFACE LOW WILL
   ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND INTERMOUNTAIN
   WEST. MEANWHILE...A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY IN PLACE
   OVER THE DESERT SW WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE NWD AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER
   SYSTEM. WARM/DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT FROM THE
   GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...CNTRL NV...
   STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 20 MPH
   WITH STRONGER GUSTS AS A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPS IN THE
   AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF AREA MEETING CRITICAL RH CRITERIA IS IN
   QUESTION...AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT
   WILL MAINTAIN A CRITICAL AREA OVER INTERIOR NV AS RH/S SHOULD DROP
   TO AROUND 15 PERCENT AT PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT.
   
   ...CNTRL WY INTO WRN SD...
   A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL
   SUPPORT SUSTAINED SFC WINDS AOA 20 MPH DURING THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF
   WY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE
   SW...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF CRITICAL RH CRITERIA BEING MET
   WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN WY...WITH A MIX OF WET AND DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN WY IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE STATE AND
   POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS. 
   
   ACROSS WRN SD...SUSTAINED SFC WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS AREAS
   FURTHER WEST...BUT WILL APPROACH 20 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING WITH
   HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. WHEN COMBINED WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 100F AND
   RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT...THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A
   THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...CNTRL SD/ND...
   A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW.
   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL MIX STRONGER MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE
   SURFACE... WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS AOA 25 MPH WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS
   OF 40 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY
   HOT TEMPS IN THE 100F-105F RANGE AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO AOB 15
   PERCENT WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. HAVE OPTED TO
   UPGRADE THIS AREA DESPITE MARGINAL FUEL CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE
   AREA...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH END TEMP/RH/WIND CONDITIONS.
   
   ...SRN ID...
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
   COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT COOLER TEMPS AND SOMEWHAT
   HIGHER RH /AOA 20 PERCENT/ SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BELOW
   CRITICAL LEVELS.
   
   ...ERN MT...WRN ND...
   SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH AND RH VALUES IN THE 20-25
   PERCENT RANGE WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING
   THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH
   IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED DRY
   THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY WET THUNDERSTORMS INTO
   THE EVENING.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 221919
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0219 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE UPPER COLUMBIA RIVER
   BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES REGIONS WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
   EXTENDING NWD THROUGH THE SAN JOAQUIN AND SACRAMENTO VALLEYS.  THIS
   WILL RESULT IN SOME OFFSHORE N-NELY FLOW PERMEATING PORTIONS OF NRN
   CA AND LEAD TO POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY.  OVERALL FORECAST ON
   TRACK...NO CHANGES NEEDED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/22/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0455 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AT THE START OF PERIOD
   WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FEATURE...A
   SURFACE LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA WILL MOVE NEWD AS A TRAILING COLD
   FRONT PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. 
   
   COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER RH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT
   IN A REDUCED RISK OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS /COMPARED TO
   PREVIOUS DAYS/ ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...NRN ROCKIES...AND NRN HIGH
   PLAINS. GUSTY W/NW WINDS AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20-30 PERCENT WILL
   BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WY AND ERN MT...WHICH MAY RESULT IN
   BRIEFLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
   THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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