Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 271650
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010
   
   VALID 271700Z - 281200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WRN
   ND/SD/NEB...CNTRL/ERN WY...FAR NERN CO...N-CNTRL AND ERN MT...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN/CNTRL NV...NRN SIERRAS...
   
   ONLY CHANGE THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS TO INCLUDE N-CNTRL AND ERN MT IN
   A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA.  LATE MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   SHOW TEMPS ACROSS SERN MT WARMING INTO THE 80S DEG F AHEAD OF A MID
   LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF N-CNTRL WY TO THE
   MT/ND/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER.  FAVORING THE RUC MODEL OVER 12Z NAM/GFS
   DATA DUE PRIMARILY TO TIME MATCHED LATE MORNING OBSERVED SURFACE
   TEMPS/WINDS AND THE RUC/S DEPICTION OF A WARMER AND BETTER MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION.  FARTHER NW OVER N-CNTRL
   MT...DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO GUST AOA 30 MPH WITH RH VALUES
   LOCALLY BELOW 20 PERCENT /REF. HVR 16Z SURFACE OB/.  MOSTLY CLEAR
   SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE CONTINUED HEATING AND LEAD TO SEVERAL HOURS OF
   CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. 
   ELSEWHERE...FORECAST ON TRACK.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/27/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0243 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A COMPACT BUT INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE
   EWD ACROSS MT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD INTO
   THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT PLAINS. A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL REMAIN FIXED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
   INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST.
   ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   WRN GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE NRN GREAT PLAINS.
   
   ...PORTIONS OF WRN ND/SD/NEB...CNTRL/ERN WY...FAR NERN CO...
   A SFC COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CNTRL MT AS OF 07Z/ WILL
   PUSH SEWD TODAY INTO THE NRN PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL SLY WINDS WILL
   STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED
   PRE-FRONTAL WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20-25 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
   IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AS TEMPERATURES HEAT
   INTO THE 90S. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG INTO ERN
   PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...HIGHER RH SHOULD LIMIT THE EWD
   EXTENT OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS
   THE NNW WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH SPEEDS
   GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH TIME. ADDITIONALLY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS WY AND THE ERN DAKOTAS/NEB AS THE
   ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY POSE AN
   ADDED RISK FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES.
   
   ...WRN/CNTRL NV...NRN SIERRAS...
   A DEEPLY-MIXED AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG
   MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SFC WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20
   MPH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS /DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
   PER MORNING SFC OBS/...ENOUGH HEATING WILL OCCUR TO RESULT IN RH
   VALUES DROPPING INTO THE MID-TEENS. THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   ...ERN MT/FAR WRN ND...
   POST-FRONTAL NWLY WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF ERN MT/FAR WRN ND. DESPITE COOLER SFC TEMPERATURES...RELATIVELY
   DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AND WILL STILL YIELD RH VALUES
   AROUND 20 PERCENT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW HRS OF NEAR CRITICAL TO
   LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 271845
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0145 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NV...WRN UT...FAR SERN
   CA...FAR NWRN AZ...
   
   NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/27/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0358 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WRN CONUS AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
   JET SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. STRENGTHENING WINDS WITHIN A VERY
   DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHERE
   MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. A LEE SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN
   CO/WY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ACROSS THE
   GREAT PLAINS.
   
   ...MUCH OF NV...WRN UT...FAR SERN CA...FAR NWRN AZ...
   A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER NERN NV WILL RESULT IN A
   STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD
   INCREASES TO AROUND 40-50 KTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH /GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH/ DEVELOPING ACROSS A LARGE
   PORTION OF THE WRN GREAT BASIN. VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ACCOMPANYING
   THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE W WILL READILY MIX DOWN TO THE
   SFC...YIELDING SINGLE DIGIT TO LOWER TEENS MIN RH VALUES...DESPITE
   COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST
   PARALLEL TO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG THE UT/NV
   BORDER...WHICH WILL LIKELY DELINEATE THE ERN EXTENT OF CRITICAL FIRE
   WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN NV/UT AND NWRN AZ.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN WY...
   A LEE SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER ERN WY/CO AND WILL RESULT IN
   STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS TO AROUND 15-20 MPH ACROSS CNTRL/ERN WY.
   DEEP MIXING WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES
   WARM INTO THE 80S/90S WITH AN ENHANCED DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE
   FLOW...WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL
   REMAIN IN PLACE TO ONLY YIELD MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES AROUND 20
   PERCENT...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF A CRITICAL RISK AREA.
   IN ADDITION...THE PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN A
   FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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