Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 291634
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
VALID 291700Z - 301200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NWRN AZ / SWRN UT / EXTREME SERN
NV...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E-CNTRL WY...
ONLY CHANGE THIS FORECAST IS TO UPGRADE PARTS OF E-CNTRL WY INTO A
CRITICAL AREA. LATE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND TEMPS ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO THE 80S.
ALTHOUGH 12Z NAM/GFS MODEL DATA EXHIBITED A DRY BIAS ACROSS CNTRL WY
IN COMPARISON TO 12Z RIW RAOB...LOCALES FARTHER E ACROSS E-CNTRL WY
SHOULD HEAT CONSIDERABLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS--YIELDING RH NEAR 15 PERCENT.
STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BY MID AFTERNOON
AND PROBABLY RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED.
..SMITH.. 08/29/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0234 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE WRN CONUS TODAY...WITH A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG SWLY FLOW
EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO THE NRN PLAINS. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NWRN AZ AND
SWRN UT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
THE SIERRA NEVADA MTNS EWD INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST.
...NWRN AZ...SWRN UT...EXTREME SERN NV...
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY BENEATH STRONG SWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW /50-60 KTS AT 500 MB/...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH /GUSTS 40-45 MPH/
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AZ/SW UT AND EXTREME SERN NV. THIS AREA IS
LOCATED ON THE DRY SIDE OF A SHARP LOWER/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
THAT WAS POSITIONED E OF IGM AS OF 07Z. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A PERIOD
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...S-CNTRL UT...N-CNTRL AZ...
STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TODAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE REGION TO KEEP MIN RH VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST AS
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL EXCEED 20 MPH /GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH/.
IN ADDITION...WEAK TO MODERATE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...CNTRL/ERN WY...
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL/ERN WY AS STRONG DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE
REGION. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF
15-25 MPH /GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH/ SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST REGARDING THE
DEGREE OF DRYING THAT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SFC OBS
REVEAL DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S/50S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...AND WITH THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS /AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER/ THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS NOT
CLEAR IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT.
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DRIEST AIR/LOWEST RH WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE...AND CONSEQUENTLY THIS
AREA IS WHERE NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED. DUE TO THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
PRESENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL RISK
AREA...ALTHOUGH ONE MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT OUTLOOK IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 291833
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ACROSS
E-CNTRL WY DEPENDENT PARTIALLY UPON POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRIOR
TO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CURRENT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE
OF MINIMUM RH. NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.
..SMITH.. 08/29/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0353 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS REMAIN FIXED OVER THE WRN CONUS THIS
PAST WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES.
AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/CNTRL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS REFLECTED AT THE SFC. VERY
COOL TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN/PAC NW AND
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SHIFT
EWD...AND WILL EXTEND GENERALLY FROM THE ROCKY MTNS INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS.
...CNTRL/ERN WY...
A MID-LEVEL BELT OF 50-60 KT FLOW WILL SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SWLY SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES
WELL-MIXED DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
BE SHUNTED EWD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING SHOULD OFFSET SOME OF THE DRYING AND YIELD MIN RH
VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE
OBSERVED FOR PERIODS OF TIME...BUT MARGINALLY LOW RH SHOULD PRECLUDE
A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...