Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 291634
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1134 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
   
   VALID 291700Z - 301200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NWRN AZ / SWRN UT / EXTREME SERN
   NV...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR E-CNTRL WY...
   
   ONLY CHANGE THIS FORECAST IS TO UPGRADE PARTS OF E-CNTRL WY INTO A
   CRITICAL AREA.  LATE MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY
   SKIES AND TEMPS ARE WARMING THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO THE 80S. 
   ALTHOUGH 12Z NAM/GFS MODEL DATA EXHIBITED A DRY BIAS ACROSS CNTRL WY
   IN COMPARISON TO 12Z RIW RAOB...LOCALES FARTHER E ACROSS E-CNTRL WY
   SHOULD HEAT CONSIDERABLY THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH HIGHS IN THE
   MID-UPPER 80S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS--YIELDING RH NEAR 15 PERCENT. 
   STRONG SWLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE BY MID AFTERNOON
   AND PROBABLY RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
   CONDITIONS.  ELSEWHERE...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
   ARE NEEDED.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/29/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0234 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
   THE WRN CONUS TODAY...WITH A BROAD ZONE OF STRONG SWLY FLOW
   EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO THE NRN PLAINS. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
   WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS NWRN AZ AND
   SWRN UT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
   THE SIERRA NEVADA MTNS EWD INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. COOL
   TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAC NW AND INTER-MOUNTAIN
   WEST.
   
   ...NWRN AZ...SWRN UT...EXTREME SERN NV...
   WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY BENEATH STRONG SWLY
   MID-LEVEL FLOW /50-60 KTS AT 500 MB/...RESULTING IN A PROLONGED
   PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH /GUSTS 40-45 MPH/
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AZ/SW UT AND EXTREME SERN NV. THIS AREA IS
   LOCATED ON THE DRY SIDE OF A SHARP LOWER/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
   THAT WAS POSITIONED E OF IGM AS OF 07Z. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
   COLUMN WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
   TROUGH...CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL DROP
   INTO THE LOWER TO MID TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN A PERIOD
   OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
   
   ...S-CNTRL UT...N-CNTRL AZ...
   STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TODAY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
   RESIDE OVER THE REGION TO KEEP MIN RH VALUES ABOVE 15 PERCENT.
   HOWEVER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST AS
   SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL EXCEED 20 MPH /GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH/.
   IN ADDITION...WEAK TO MODERATE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT
   IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN WY...
   AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL EXIST TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
   CNTRL/ERN WY AS STRONG DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE
   REGION. FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF
   15-25 MPH /GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH/ SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE FORECAST REGARDING THE
   DEGREE OF DRYING THAT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING SFC OBS
   REVEAL DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S/50S ACROSS MOST OF
   THE REGION...AND WITH THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS /AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER/ THIS AFTERNOON...IT IS NOT
   CLEAR IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT.
   FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DRIEST AIR/LOWEST RH WILL
   EXIST ACROSS THE NERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE...AND CONSEQUENTLY THIS
   AREA IS WHERE NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE MOST
   LIKELY TO BE OBSERVED. DUE TO THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
   PRESENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN UPGRADE TO A CRITICAL RISK
   AREA...ALTHOUGH ONE MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT OUTLOOK IF
   CONDITIONS WARRANT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      
Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 291833
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
   
   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   AN UPGRADE TO CRITICAL MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS ACROSS
   E-CNTRL WY DEPENDENT PARTIALLY UPON POTENTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS PRIOR
   TO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CURRENT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE
   OF MINIMUM RH.  NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.
   
   ..SMITH.. 08/29/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0353 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS REMAIN FIXED OVER THE WRN CONUS THIS
   PAST WEEKEND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES.
   AN ASSOCIATED BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
   POSITIONED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/CNTRL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
   NRN HIGH PLAINS...WITH WINDY CONDITIONS REFLECTED AT THE SFC. VERY
   COOL TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN/PAC NW AND
   INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SHIFT
   EWD...AND WILL EXTEND GENERALLY FROM THE ROCKY MTNS INTO THE GREAT
   PLAINS.
   
   ...CNTRL/ERN WY...
   A MID-LEVEL BELT OF 50-60 KT FLOW WILL SHIFT EWD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
   TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SWLY SFC WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
   ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 15-20 MPH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES
   WELL-MIXED DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL
   BE SHUNTED EWD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BOUNDARY
   LAYER COOLING SHOULD OFFSET SOME OF THE DRYING AND YIELD MIN RH
   VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE
   OBSERVED FOR PERIODS OF TIME...BUT MARGINALLY LOW RH SHOULD PRECLUDE
   A MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

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